Flag City Politico

Going Up...Going Down - 08/31/07

	Thomas Knopf and Pete Sehnert Both have been wooing those attending the Hancock County Fair. I wonder what people were talking to them about? Could it have been the 'f' word; around these parts, that stands for flood! People are waiting to hear their planned course of action, and it had better be good.
	Mike Huckabee and Chris Dodd They receive surprise endorsements from the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (Huck) and International Association of Fire Fighters (Dodd). Just goes to show how little the initial polls mean.
	Senator Larry Craig Once you plead guilty, it doesn't matter what you say. If you're willing to admit you did something to save your hide from a worse sentence, then you probably deserved it.
	Rove, Gonzales and Snow GWBush's top strategist, attorney general and press secretary are all leaving. Good riddance or happy trails? As with this President, only history will tell.
	GWBush and Ted Strickland Thanks for approving Hancock County and Findlay as disaster areas. Let's hope that we fare better a year from now than others recently helped by FEMA.

-RSKnopfJr

Which member of Findlay City Council best represents you?

poll conducted August 11-31, 2007

-RSKnopfJr

Presidential Endorsements II

Another day, a few more endorsements...

International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers endorses Michael Huckabee and Hillary Clinton

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), one of the nation’s largest and most politically active trade unions, is endorsing New York Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton for President. The 700,000-member IAM also took the unusual step of endorsing a Republican candidate for the primaries, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

The decision to endorse a candidate for the Democratic and Republican primaries follows extensive polling of IAM members and a ‘Conversation with the Candidates’ event in Orlando, Florida, where candidates from both parties discussed their vision for the country and the role of the U.S. labor movement.

“Hillary Clinton earned the IAM’s endorsement by focusing on jobs, health care, education and trade – the bread and butter issues of the American middle class,” said IAM International President Tom Buffenbarger. “She is the only candidate of either party to come forward with a comprehensive manufacturing policy and the only candidate to connect with millions of Americans who feel invisible to the current administration.”Huckabee_9.jpg

Buffenbarger also praised the former Arkansas Republican Governor, who addressed the IAM National Staff Conference this week. “Mike Huckabee was the only Republican candidate with the guts to meet with our members and the only one willing to figure out where and how we might work together,” said Buffenbarger. “He is entitled to serious consideration from our members voting in the upcoming Republican primaries.”

read more here

---

United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America endorses John Edwards

The United Brotherhood of Carpenters announced today that it will endorse Senator John Edwards in the Democratic Presidential Primary.

"Our endorsement is based on the Senator's outspoken support for all of organized labor and his focus on America's working families," said Carpenters President Douglas J. McCarron.

The Carpenters' early endorsement is unusual given that the union has made no endorsement in recent presidential primaries, and made no endorsement at all in the last presidential race.

Senator Edwards met with the union's executive board and 35 key leaders from throughout the United States last week in Las Vegas. They voted overwhelmingly to endorse Edwards following that meeting.

read more here
visit the UBC website here

If you're scoring at home, or even on the road...
DEM: Clinton - 2, Dodd - 1, Edwards - 1
REP: Huckabee - 1

-RSKnopfJr

Presidential Endorsements I

The first of many major Presidential endorsements have come out this week. One was expected...the other, a major surprise.

United Transportation Union endorses HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON

The United Transportation Union today (Aug. 28) became the first labor union in America to endorse Hillary Rodham Clinton for President of the United States.

“It is a high honor and a distinct privilege to be the first labor union in making this endorsement,” said UTU International President Paul Thompson. “The UTU has a long history of picking winners early. Hillary will be a president that America’s working families can count on. Time and again, as a United States senator, she has stood with us.

“The UTU intends to devote our considerable resources to encouraging our 125,000 active and retired members, their families, friends and neighbors to register to vote and cast ballots on Election Day 2008 for Hillary.”

read more here

---

International Association of Fire Fighters endorses CHRISTOPHER DODD

A Message from the General President

We have a core political philosophy on which all of our political work hinges. We will support those who support us.

In the 2008 Presidential election, there are a number of candidates with solid records on fire fighter and working family issues. The proven, demonstrated ability to lead on those issues are what we weigh the most when deciding who will receive the considerable support and endorsement of our great union. These successes tell us what kind of leadership each candidate will offer as our President.

So we did the background work and looked at the candidates' records on fire fighter and working family issues. We saw which issues they have a history not just of supporting, but where they led the fight to change things for the better, and where they would in the future. And we examined the strengths each candidate would bring in a general election.

We listened to the candidates' words, hosted forums and printed them in our magazine.

We talked with our leaders and members across the country... and after all of that work, your IAFF Executive Board took that information, got together and found that one candidate out of all those running in both parties really stood head and shoulders above the rest when it came to support for fire fighters, for protecting our country and on issues that are important to our economy, our families and their quality of life.

That candidate is U.S. Senator Chris Dodd, and that's why your IAFF Executive Board voted unanimously today to endorse Senator Dodd for President of the United States.

read more here

-RSKnopfJr

LiveSTRONG

The past two days, yellow bands were out in full force in Iowa as the Lance Armstrong Foundation hosted a presidential forum. Candidates showed up to discuss cancer and health care with co-moderators Lance Armstrong and Chris Matthews (of MSNBC's Hardball).

As a cancer survivor, and an individual who has worn a LIVESTRONG bracelet since they came out, I am a huge admirer of Lance Armstrong and all he has accomplished. Not only did he survive cancer (a feat note worthy by itself), but his record of winning seven consecutive Tour De France races, and parlaying his celebrity and fame into the creation of the foundation bearing his name, are major accomplishments.

When I was going through my surgery and treatments, there were plenty of days that I felt like giving up. Unfortunately, I did not have someone to look up to ...someone going through what I was going through and someone I could relate to. I feel that he has brought cancer to the forefront, and I appreciate that he has become a role model for everyone afflicted with this disease.

It was a surprise, but a testament to Armstrong's political and public influence, that this event occurred. Partnered with MSNBC, this was the first debate I can recall that was created around such a specific issue. I am glad it happened, and am a little disappointed that less than half of the active candidates participated.

On Monday, the Democrats were invited, and Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and Dennis Kucinich accepted the call. Earlier today, it was the Republicans turn, and only Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee attended. Below are a few recaps of what they said and reaction to the event.

Lance Armstrong Hosts Cancer Forum
Democratic candidates for president mixed politics with the fight against a deadly disease on Monday. Cancer survivor and champion cyclist Lance Armstrong returned to Iowa to continue his personal battle against cancer. And four Democrats running for president answered questions about cancer research and treatment at a specialized Iowa forum at the U.S. Cellular Center. >>>
Dave Franzman
KCRG-TV

Dems square off at Iowa forum
John Edwards and Hillary Clinton took different approaches today to how they would treat insurance and drug companies in reforming the country's health care system, as they and two other Democratic presidential hopefuls took part in a cancer forum put on by the Lance Armstrong Foundation. >>>
Ed Tibbetts
Quad-City Times

Huckabee Stars as GOP Stumbles
Despite six no-shows, the Republican session of Lance Armstrong's cancer forum firmly established health-care as a campaign issue. And it gave the former Arkansas governor an opportunity to shine. >>>
Jonathan Alter
Newsweek

GOP's Huckabee, Brownback duel over health care goals
Republican presidential contender Sam Brownback pledged a goal of ending cancer deaths in 10 years while rival Mike Huckabee used a health care forum Tuesday to suggest that federal food stamp participants get more buying power for healthy foods and less for junk food. >>>
Rick Pearson
Chicago Tribune

If you would like to find out more information about the Lance Armstrong Foundation, or need access to free information regarding cancer and treatments, please visit their website.

-RSKnopfJr

Time Out for Humor

Remember to take time to smile and laugh...

"You like presidential birthdays? Oh! Who doesn't. Well, over the weekend former president Bill Clinton turned 61, 61! Happy birthday Bill. Bill enjoyed a romantic candlelight dinner and dancing, then he went home to Hillary."
David Letterman
The Late Show with David Letterman

"But let's get through some other hits. Do decisive politics [on screen: Rove saying, 'What I try to do is serve a president whose attitude was let's find ways to bring the country together']. And that would be who? Oh, unless, oh my God, Karl Rove's been moonlighting for the president of Match.com."
Jon Stewart
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

The difference between Republicans & Democrats
A Republican and a Democrat were walking down the street when they came to a homeless person.

The republican gave the homeless person his business card and told him come to his business for a job. He then took twenty dollars out of his pocket and gave it to the homeless person.

The Democrat was very impressed, and when they came to another homeless person, He decided to help. He walked over to the homeless person and gave him directions to the welfare office. He then reached into the Republicans pocket and gave him fifty dollars.

"I guess it's no wonder that a poll out this summer put 'None of the Above' over all of the other Republican candidates. And if 'None of the Above' does get the Republican nomination, you know two things will happen: a) the Democrats will find a way to lose to him, and b) Bush will try to call and congratulate him."
Bill Maher

"Indiana Congressman Mike Pence hit the nail on the head. If there's one thing that everyone I've talked to can agree on, it's that Iraq is exactly like an Indiana market in the summertime. ... This is the sort of place where people don't even lock their doors at night. Heck, most people don't even have doors."
Rob Riggle
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

The Two Bills

Top Ten Good Things About Marrying Into The Bush Family
The Late Show with David Letterman
10. Great deals on Fallujah honeymoon
9. You'll inherit President Bush's extensive collection of Chuck Norris memorabilia
8. It's a good bet the wedding reception will have an open bar
7. Might see Cheney shoot an old guy-- still a reference, folks
6. Learning from grandma Barbara how to spit chaw
5. Every Wednesday is Taco Night
4. What could be more fascinating than learning what makes Jeb tick?
3. If half the family hates you, you still have better approval rating that George Bush
2. W. can lend you the "Mission Accomplished" banner to put up in the bedroom
1. Little chance you'll be the dumbest guy in the family

-RSKnopfJr

Around the Country

DNC sanctions Florida Dems
Florida will lose all its delegates to the Democratic National Convention unless the state moves its primary from Jan. 29 to Feb. 5, the Democratic Party decided Saturday. >>>
Roger Simon
The Politico

Older voters watch races
S.C. seniors are watching and listening for the 2008 presidential candidates to address their concerns, but so far, are hearing very little to make them choose a favorite, a new survey shows. >>>
Roddie A. Burris
The State

Majority of candidates to skip cancer forums
Lance Armstrong was asked which is more difficult: bicycling a million miles or pushing a political candidate to commit? >>>
Mike Kilen
The Des Moines Register

Edwards pushes universal health care
Veteran James Garceau of Claremont lay unconscious on his living room for two days because he wasn't given the proper instructions on when to take his diabetes medication. >>>
Garry Rayno
New Hampshire Union Leader

Romney’s answer on abortion ripples across the country
Mitt Romney rode into Nevada this week on a high, a top-tier Republican candidate for president fresh off a sweeping victory in the crucial Iowa Straw Poll. A new poll showed him ahead in Nevada. >>>
J. Patrick Coolican
Las Vegas Sun

Coming up on the Sunday news shows

• ABC: Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA), Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers
• CBS: John and Elizabeth Edwards
• CNN: former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) and Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)
• FOX: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY),  Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), Mike Huckabee (R)
• NBC: Lance Armstrong, Sen. John Warner (R-VA)

Hope you're all staying safe and dry! Keep smilin'!!  :-)

-RSKnopfJr

Going Up...Going Down - 08/24/07

	Candidate's Spouses Elizabeth Edwards...Michelle Obama...Elizabeth Kucinich...and who could forget William Jefferson Clinton. They are not going to sit on the sidelines during this election. At least on the Democratic side, the spouses are producing as many headlines and sound-bytes as the candidates.
	Mitt Romney & Mike Huckabee In the first major poll after the Ames Straw Poll, Romney has a solid lead in Iowa, and Huckabee joins the top tier at fourth place. Both have maintained their gains while the others have fallen a little.
	Recall Petition A petition to recall Toledo Mayor Carty Finkbeiner fell short by 3000 people. The organizer, Thomas Morrissey, burned the papers and said he decided not to turn in the signatures collected because some of the signers feared retribution from the mayor.
	Homeowners With millions of homeowners teetering on the brink of foreclosures and economic ruin, the government took it's sweet time in trying to shore up the ongoing credit crisis. Let's hope something is done to help these individuals instead of creating a new class of homeless families.
	Leadership after flood Let's hope that the response to our area's disaster does not devolve into the political grandstanding and finger-pointing that has happened after other national emergencies. Fingers are already being point at the Army Corps of Engineers. Let's work together to solve the problem instead of trying to find someone to blame. A flood of this magnitude is unprecedented, and there is no guarantee that any fixes made would have stopped this amount of devastation. Let's continue the neighborly spirit and bipartisan support...because it will be gone all too soon.

-RSKnopfJr

What else can be said?

I am not as eloquent as others in the media, so I will never win awards or praise for my prose. But I would be remiss if I ignored the events of the past few days. So please bear with me as I try to share some thoughts with you...

With what has happened recently, it is great to once again see how the great people of Northwest Ohio have come to their aid of their neighbors. There have been numerous stories in the paper and on the radio and television about how people have gone above and beyond to help out others; the Midwestern spirit is alive and well in Findlay, Hancock and the surrounding counties.

It is interesting to see how differences are put aside when it comes to coping with emergencies. No matter your politics, it is not a concern right now. With Governor Strickland, he was not a Democrat visiting a very Republican area, but he was the leader of our state, literally embraced by our community and a person we look to for guidance and assistance.

Kudos go to county and city leaders. They may get lambasted by individuals in the community for decisions they make, but you need to give them credit...despite anything you may disagree with, the planning and preparation they have done over the past several years has been worthwhile and proven to be effective.

Look at what has happened: the emergency communications command center has worked as planned...The Cube has been a refuge for those seeking food and shelter...the city maintained water and electric services. Injuries and deaths have been minimal, and with the waters receding, plans are already underway to get everything cleaned up.

This area has been the focus on regional and national newscasts the past few days. It is unusual to think of Findlay in the same way we think of other places needing assistance; seeing FEMA in the area, people being helped by the Red Cross, and aerial shots of downtown on CNN and MSNBC have a way of making the reality and gravity of the situation really hit home.

It is an amazing thing to observe. We just went through the worst flood in the city's history. I have told my daughters that they have just been through something that they will be telling their children and grandchildren about. I want them to remember how the community responded, and how our neighborhoods pulled together to help one another.

Thank you to everyone who has done something to help during this time...from our government leaders, to the police and fire departments, to the rescue workers who came to the area, to the numerous volunteers, to the neighbors...all of you deserve a pat on the back and a hug for the great jobs you have done! I am proud of all of you, and from my heart, I thank you!!

-RSKnopfJr

_____ for Mayor

Both of the candidates for mayor of Findlay now have websites, so let the real campaigning begin. Here is a snapshot of each (click to open a larger size), or better yet, visit their sites to find out more information about Pete and Thomas.

It is interesting how the Pete's site is mostly red, while Thomas' is mainly blue. That may not mean anything, but subconsciously, I know this means something.  ;-)

After you visit their sites, come back to the FCPolitico and leave some feedback in the comments section with your review of each as well as what you think of their chances this November.

Pete Sehnert for Mayor
'The Right Man for the Job'
www.electsehnert.com 

Thomas Knopf for Mayor
'Putting People First!'
www.thomasknopf.com

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers

Michigan is going to move their primary to January 15, so they are suddenly a key player in the process. On the Republican side, imagine Romney winning Iowa (where he is ahead), New Hampshire (where he is ahead) and now Michigan (where his family has a successful history).

Anyway, here are the numbers from the early states...

-RSKnopfJr

Around the Country

Thompson extols outsider status
Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee sauntered into Iowa on Friday, portraying himself as a plainspoken Washington, D.C., outsider while all but declaring his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination. >>>
Thomas Beaumont
The Des Moines Register

Tie minimum wage to economy, Romney says
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said Thursday that the minimum hourly wage should be tied to benchmarks in the economy, which would help squelch future debate on increasing the paychecks of low-paid workers. >>>
The State

NH awaits Michigan primary decision
Top officials of both major political parties in Michigan are close to agreeing to leapfrog South Carolina and hold a presidential primary on Tuesday, Jan. 15. The move would ensure a New Hampshire primary no later than Tuesday, Jan. 8, under a requirement of state law that it must be seven days ahead of any "similar election." >>>
John Distaso
New Hampshire Union Leader

Huckabee sees momentum building; cites Iowa poll
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee said his second-place finish at the Ames straw poll in Iowa last weekend shows he has developed "real momentum" in the Republican presidential race, especially because his campaign turned out its supporters on a shoestring budget, without TV ads or free bus rides. >>>
Lisa Wangsness
The Boston Globe

Iowa: Up for grabs
Ignore those nationwide polls that show Hillary Rodham Clinton leading the Democratic pack by 20 points or more. Forget the debates and forums that have already taken place. Discount even the jaw-dropping fundraising figures Barack Obama has posted. >>>
Richard Allen Greene
The Politico

-RSKnopfJr

Going Up...Going Down - 08/17/07

A special Republican Party Presidential candidate issue of GUGD.

	Mitt Romney Anytime you win two straw polls within a week, you are doing something right. Let's see how he does outside the Midwest...let's say, South Carolina.
	Mike Huckabee Anytime you finish second in the Ames Straw Poll, you are doing something right. Let's see how he does with the other top-tier candidates in the mix.
	Fred Thompson Anytime you finish above other top-tier candidates in the straw polls, and you yourself have not yet announced, you are doing something right. Let's see how he does once he makes things official and appears side-by-side the others in a few debates.
	Rudy Giuliani Anytime you finish below a candidate who has not entered the race, you may have something to think about. Let's see how his strategy of waiting for Super Tuesday (Feb 5) works out.
	Ron Paul Anytime you finish higher in the straw polls then people expect, you must be doi...oh, forget it. Ron Paul (and his supporters) has to be excited. Top 5 in Ames, and Top 3 in Illinois? On to Texas!! Paul is going to be expecting some more questions and air time come the next debate in September.

-RSKnopfJr

Illinois Straw Poll - Results

Late announcement from the Illinois Republican Party...

“Congratulations to Mitt Romney, whose strong showing today indicates he has begun to put together a strong statewide organization. There’s no question that Illinois’ demographics closely match those of the United States and this could be an indication as to whom Illinois voters are leaning toward this coming February.”

Off his recent win in Iowa, Romney won the 'Land of Lincoln' straw poll, doubling up on runner-up Fred Thompson:

1. Mitt Romney – 40.35% 
2. Fred Thompson – 19.96%
3. Ron Paul – 18.87%
4. Rudy Giuliani – 11.61%
5. John McCain – 4.12%
6. Mike Huckabee – 3.04%
7. Sam Brownback – 1.08%
8. Duncan Hunter - .65%
9. Tom Tancrado - .33%

What's most surprising...

• Romney's win? Not really. With the proximity to Iowa, and coming off of Iowa, this can hardly be considered out of the ordinary.
• Fred Thompson doing better than Rudy Giuliani? Perhaps a little considering the spread between the two. Let's see what happens when the two are on the same stage.
• Ron Paul in third place?  Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner. This shows that Iowa was not a fluke, and his supporters are a force to be reckoned with (at least in the midwest).

Next up: Texas at the end of the month.

-RSKnopfJr

An Invitation

Mark these two dates down on your calendar: October 26th and December 7th. Go ahead...I'll wait.

OK - now that you're back...these are the dates for two new events on the national election cycle: the National Straw Poll (in October) and the National Presidential Caucus (in December).

What is this all about? The organizers have put a system into place that allows communities from across the United States to hold a straw poll and caucus before the first official Presidential elections are held...you get to voice your opinion before the folks in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina narrow the field dramatically.

This is an endeavor that is founded on what democracy should represent, and is purely idealistic...so you would think that it would be scoffed at by mainstream media, politician, think tanks, policy institutes and the like. However, that does not appear to be the case...check out these stories:

CBS NEWS: A National Caucus?
With up to two dozen states looking to hold a presidential primary next February 5, we’re already looking at a national primary on that day. So why not a national caucus?
read more

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: Democracy Heads to Web Laboratory
Last month's YouTube Democratic presidential debate, starring "Billiam the Snowman" and other Internet questioners, was just the beginning. In coming months, the candidates will become guinea pigs in a host of Web-based debating experiments -- from "video mashups" to instant-message questioning -- that will continue to transform how debates are produced and watched.
read more 

ABC NEWS - SAN FRANCISCO: Local Group Pushes For National Caucus
The Iowa caucuses are the first true test for the presidential election, which means a disproportionate number of candidate visits and media attention. But now a Sausalito-based group is working to change that.
read more 

Partners include groups that are considered conservative and liberal, as well as the Unity08 movement (we'll discuss that soon). Warren Rudman (former Republican Senator), Bill Bradley (former Democratic Senator) and instructors from Stanford, University of Iowa and University of Virginia have all endorsed this idea.

So what happens on these two days? Well, the October event is basically a trial run of the system to make sure everything is going to work correctly, but the real fun comes in December. Here is what the NPC website has to say:

"NPC Caucuses are 2-hour meetings anytime between 3pm and 8pm local time on National Caucus Day. Organizers facilitate a discussion round where participants may each speak to their most important issues and to establish a group consensus on the top 2-3 issues for that caucus. Then, a second round of discussion to express candidate preferences. The organizer then posts the results at www.NationalCaucus.com for aggregation and general reporting."

Like I said earlier, this is very idealistic. In fact, here are the goals from the group:

• Help the country better prepare for the vital business of selecting its next president, not in haste, but through 1000s of informed face to face discussions and thoughtful deliberations.
• Foster deeper and more meaningful access to the country’s political system toward the goal of helping revitalize American democracy.
• Create a new voice for those willing to participate in person.

I am going to be (hopefully one of many) setting up a local effort. We can meet for dinner, discuss a little politics, have a little fun and then vote. It may be for nothing, but if this does anything to make voters more interested in the candidates, and if it informs them of the issues, then I am all for giving up a few hours of my Friday. I hope you feel the same way. Add your name to the comments area if you would like to participate. Stay tuned for more information and updates.

-RSKnopfJr

The Man from Hope

Sure, Mitt Romney received the most votes at this week's Iowa Straw Poll, but that was expected. The biggest story to come out of Ames, however, was the surprise second-place finish of Mike Huckabee.

For those of you have regular FCPolitico readers, you know that I have (on more than one occasion) extolled the virtues of Huckabee, so it was a little satisfying to see him do so well. After the results were announced, you had the feeling that the press was going to pick up on this...and the reaction came fast and furious...

• Meet the Press - "T he Huckabee story is amazing for a couple of reasons. He didn't buy a single bus. ... The other thing is Huckabee actually had a negative ad run against him for this last week. The Club for Growth went after him. So here's somebody who didn't have any paid media up himself, had a negative ad criticizing him, and he finished second. It's a big deal. ... Huckabee may start inching up and saying, 'Hey, I belong in this first tier.'"
• Bloomberg - "He got more votes than he bought tickets, which is a rare thing in Iowa. You usually get what you pay for. Huckabee got more than that."
• Des Moines Register - "Governor Huckabee was arguably the biggest winner yesterday, because he did beat Sam Brownback, and the two of them were in a real contest for the hearts and minds of the social conservatives."

...and the candidate himself on Face the Nation...

"We're in fact in the first tier I think by everybody's estimation, and here's why. It wasn't just that we surprised people with a second showing. It's that we did it with so few resources. I mean, this really was feeding the 5,000 with two fish and five loaves. An amazing kind of day for us. Because if you look at how much money some of the candidate spent to get the votes they got, it's staggering. And we spent less than $100,000 on the straw poll.

If we add everything we did over the course of the last seven weeks in Iowa -- that includes paper clips and gasoline for the vehicles to get us from place to place -- our total expenses were $150,000. So when you look at what we were able to achieve, it was because people came to Ames to vote for us. And we had remarkable stories of people who came literally from all over America to work for us. And then people from Ames, one girl drove from Ames to Des Moines to get her driver's license because she forgot it, just so she could vote for me. I mean, it was a movement."

Still not convinced? Try these...

Easy style hits chord with Republicans
Strumming on his guitar, the presidential candidate from Hope, Arkansas knows informal southern manners go down well on the campaign trail. His easy way with people and self-deprecating humour helped to get him re-elected four times as governor of Arkansas.
Edward Luce
FT.com via MSNBC

Huckabee's Price of Admission: $100,000
Relishing his second-place finish in the Ames, Iowa straw poll on Saturday, Mike Huckabee yesterday noted that he managed to snare 18 percent of the vote despite investing much less in the event than his top rivals. "It wasn't just that we surprised people with a second showing, it's that we did it with so few resources," he said. "This really was feeding the 5,000 with two fish and five loaves."
Alec MacGillis
Washington Post

For a Joke-Telling Candidate, a Second-Place Finish
“I can’t buy you — I don’t have the money,” Mike Huckabee, the Arkansas Republican seeking the presidency, told Republicans at the Iowa Straw Poll this weekend. He offered a mock frown.
Adam Nagourney
New York Times

Analysis: Huckabee's 2nd-Place 'Win' in Ames
The biggest political event of the 2007 calendar year gave former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney a victory, but the biggest winner may well be former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who placed a surprising second.
Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post

Huckabee media whirl: Empathy for life 'at the bottom of the mountain'
Mike Huckabee has parlayed his surprise second-place finish in the Iowa Republican Party straw poll into at least eight national media appearances so far. One of his most interesting encounters was with Chris Mathews on MSNBC's Hardball.
Jill Lawrence
USA Today

Huckabee's Fifteen Minutes
After his second-place finish in the Iowa straw poll, Mike Huckabee emerged as the mainstream media's favorite conservative.
Maggie Gallagher
Yahoo!

So what's next? Does this move Huckabee to the top tier? Maybe not all the way, but he is definitely closer to replacing McCain than ever before. Huckabee has until he end of September to translate this success into an increase in fundraising.

Talk has also surfaced of Huckabee being a possible choice for VP. I think that the idea has merit, especially if Giuliani is the Republican nominee and needs a southerner (Arkansas) with executive experience (governor) and who is a pro-life (and can balance Rudy's position) conservative (to balance Rudy being a moderate). Stranger things have happened...and this election cycle, anything is possible.

-RSKnopfJr

photos courtesy of Mike Huckabee's campaign website

Time Out for Humor

I was in Columbus yesterday (more on that later this week), so here is a special Monday edition of FCPolitico funnies for your personal or private amusement...

"Today in Washington, President Bush met with the president of Afghanistan, who was wearing that hat and the robe. ... President Bush was a little confused. He thought he was meeting the professor from the Hogwarts school."
Jay Leno
The Tonight Show with Jay Leno

"Earlier this week at a campaign event in Utah, hundreds of people showed up to hear a speech by Barack Obama. After Obama's speech, the Utah crowd said, 'That was great. Now let us know if an Asian guy ever comes to town.'"
Conan O'Brien
Late Night with Conan O'Brien

Interview with the Vice-President


"A lot of people were wondering whether President Bush would acknowledge the record. He did. In fact, he told Neil Cavuto on Fox News today that he spoke to Barry Bonds on the phone. ... See that. He does care about black people after all. ... He probably just wanted to take the rare opportunity to talk to someone whose approval rating is lower than his is."
Jimmy Kimmel
Jimmy Kimmel Live

The New War on Terror


"Mitt Romney -- the only candidate named after a glove, one of the leading Republicans, he's called the war on terror the defining mission of our generation -- was asked in Iowa today why none of his five draft-age or army eligible sons are serving in the military. He said -- and this is a quote, people -- 'One of the ways my sons are showing support for the nation is helping me get elected, 'cause they think I'd make a great president.' When I read that, I was moved ... and I'll tell you why. To know that the Romney boys love America so much and the whole family that they're willing to give up all five of their boys for the Romney campaign. Who knows what kind of post-traumatic care these boys will need after the election?"
Jon Stewart
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

-RSKnopfJr

Ames Straw Poll - Results & Recap

After a 90+ minute delay in announcing the results (due to problems with the Diebold machines counting the ballots), the results are in for the Ames Straw Poll:

1. Mitt Romney - 4516 votes, 31.5%
2. Mike Huckabee - 2587, 18.1%
3. Sam Brownback - 2192, 15.3%
4. Tom Tancredo - 1,961, 13.7%
5. Ron Paul - 1305, 9.1%
6. Tommy Thompson - 1039, 7.3%
7. Fred Thompson - 203, 1.4%
8. Rudy Giuliani - 183, 1.3%
9. Duncan Hunter - 174, 1.2%
10. John McCain - 101, 1%
11. John Cox - 41, .1%
Total Votes: 14,302

As expected, Romney won...and even though his percentage was about the same as GWBush in 1999, the difference between first and second was greater than Bush's victory over Steve Forbes eight years ago. Since he did just as good as Bush did, Romney can probably sleep well tonight knowing that he met the expectations that were out there.

In a surprise to many (but not, ahem, the FCPolitico), Mike Huckabee finished second. Since the first Republican debate, I have been impressed with him. His message really must have resonated with the Iowa voters because he did not have the money to spend (like Romney), and did not make this a make-or-break event (like Tommy Thompson). We'll see if this translates into more resources headed Huckabee's way.

Brownback and Tancredo did better than I expected, but it is a testament to the importance (and money) they threw at today's event. They were second only to Romney in the number of supporters being transported to Ames, and the effort certainly paid off.

Ron Paul's fifth place finish, despite a minimal effort to participate in the event, and a court challenge in the way the way the vote was held (he looks good now considering the technical issues of the night) that should have hurt him more, show that he is not a fringe candidate. Even though he is not near the top-tier, his message (and dedicated supporters) should not be dismissed. Paul's following reminds me of Howard Dean from four years ago; if a top candidate can get Paul's endorsement, there is a major grass roots organization that will follow.

I am waiting for the announcements from Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter that they are suspending their campaigns. Thompson said many times that if he didn't finish near the top, he was done; and considering how hard his campaign worked to do well in this event, the sixth place finish will assure that we will now have only one Thompson remain in the race. John Cox? At least his family and friends voted for him.

We knew that McCain was going to have a poor showing, but he actually received more votes than he did in 1999. Also, there may be something to Fred Thompson doing better than Rudy Giuliani, but it may be because a group paid $10,000 to be at the event, pass out material on Thompson's behalf, and broadcast audio of his speeches over a speaker. All three candidates who weren't here know who the competition now is, and need to get in position to do better in the Iowa caucus in January.

Tomorrow, Romney (FOX), Huckabee (CBS) and Brownback (ABC) will be on the Sunday news/talk shows...so tune in to see how they spin the results.

So how did I do? Here's my prediction again for you to compare:

1. Mitt Romney - 36%
2. Mike Huckabee - 19%
3. Tommy Thompson - 11%
4. Rudy Giuliani - 8%
5. Fred Thompson - 7%
6. Tom Tancred - 6%
7. Sam Brownback - 5%
8. Ron Paul - 5%
9. Duncan Hunter - 2%
10. John McCain - 1%
11. John Cox - 0%

Hey...I got the top two, and bottom three, correct...not too bad. As for everything in between, I blame it on Diebold.  ;-)

-RSKnopfJr

Ready...Ames...Fire!

Imagine enjoying a nice summer day at a park, one where you don't have to drive to get there, all your food and drinks are free, and there is plenty of entertainment for you and the kids...and all you had to do was cast a ballot for the person picking up the tab. Every four years, this is what Iowans go through. Tough gig, isn't it?

No candidate has ever won the Iowa caucuses without placing in the top two at the Ames Straw Poll, so there is some historical credence to doing well. Even though the results have nothing to do with the caucus that will take place next January, this is an important test for candidates. With all the money going to the Iowa Republican Party, this is not much more than a fund-raiser; however, to those running for President, this is an opportunity to show Iowa (and the nation that is watching) that they have the ability to organize a state-wide campaign, the spirit to motivate voters, and the financial resources to be viable. 

Even though there is nothing official riding on the results, there are still plenty of storylines. This year's straw poll has all the makings of a great political drama...

Will Mitt Romney win?
By all estimates, it is a foregone conclusion that Romney is going to receive the most votes. The bigger question to ask is, what constitutes a victory? Let's face it, Romney is in a no-win situation. The absence of Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Fred Thompson already taints the results in the eyes of many voters. Also, when competing against the second-tier (and below) candidates, how much a margin of victory is needed to proclaim victory? Simply winning by five percent or receiving 35% of the vote may not be good enough. Finally, what happens if he finishes second (or worse)? For Romney, there is no upside to competing in this event, but plenty of downside if his victory is not strong enough.

Who emerges as the conservative voice?
Over the past month, there has been a lot of back and forth between Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback. Both are vying to be the voice of social conservatives, and the e-mails and accusations between the two camps have have flying. Brownback's campaign has been calling McCain supporters, urging them to vote for their candidate since McCain is sitting this one out...Huckabee is rumored to be running a quiet but effective ground campaign that could surprise some people. The best they can (reasonably) expect to finish is second, but doing so will go a long way in establishing their campaign and continuing on to 2008.

What about the candidates not participating?
You have to think that Giuliani, McCain and FThompson are strong enough candidates that the results of the poll won't affect them much. If they do better than those participating, it is a testament to their campaign. If they don't, they can also say that they weren't vested in the process anyway. There is a feeling that Giuliani and FThompson might do better than expected, but that McCain will be hurt by voters upset that he is skipping this event for the second time.

What about outsiders affecting the outcome?
Don't think for a second that Iowa Democrats or supporters of Giuliani/McCain/FThompson are going to stay at home watching events unfold on television. $35 a ticket may be expensive, but if someone was looking to upset one of the Republican front-runners or throw a party into chaos, the opportunity is certainly there.

What about a wild card?
Ron Paul's supporters have shown that they are an on-line force to be reckoned with, and when Paul was excluded from an opportunity to speak at a Republican gathering several weeks ago, the meeting he independently staged drew more people than the official event. Paul only purchased 500 tickets for the straw poll; will his supporters reach into their own pockets to pay the fee, or are they savvy enough to get a different candidate to pay their way?

So with all of that to think of, who is going to come out ahead? With so many candidates and so many variables, the outcome is virtually impossible to predict with any accuracy, but that's what makes this so fun...so let's give it the ol' FCPolitico try...

• Mitt Romney - 36%
• Mike Huckabee - 19%
• Tommy Thompson - 11%
• Rudy Giuliani - 8%
• Fred Thompson - 7%
• Tom Tancred - 6%
• Sam Brownback - 5%
• Ron Paul - 5%
• Duncan Hunter - 2%
• John McCain - 1%
• John Cox - 0%

Results will roll in around 8:00p, so please go ahead and add your predictions to the comments section before then. Check back later Saturday night for results.

-RSKnopfJr