Flag City Politico

The hardest step

We knew last night that Rudy Giuliani was dropping out and endorsing McCain this evening. Today, the other shoe (surprisingly) dropped. John Edwards finished his campaign where it started, in New Orleans. Even wearing the same clothes as when he announced he was running for President, he took the hardest step any politician has to make, that of saying good-bye. You have to appreciate the symbolism of the event, and understand how hard it is for individuals to stop campaigning when they have put their hearts and souls into the endeavor.

The question that everyone had when they learned of the announcement was 'Who is he going to endorse'. Edwards' aides quickly let it be known he wasn't endorsing anyone.....today. Why make that the story when media outlets should be writing his political obituary?

If Edwards is going to make an endorsement, however, it is probably going to come before Super Tuesday, and it is probably going to be Obama. Why Obama? One of the central principles of Edwards campaign has been change, and getting rid of the status quo. Who better fits that description; someone who appears to be pulling together multiple constituencies, or someone the Republicans wish gets the democratic nomination?

The remaining contenders wasted little time in placing their phone calls to Edwards and getting messages on their websites

"John Edwards has spent a lifetime fighting to give voice to the voiceless and hope to the struggling, even when it wasn’t popular to do or covered in the news.  At a time when our politics is too focused on who’s up and who’s down, he made a nation focus again on who matters – the New Orleans child without a home, the West Virginia miner without a job, the families who live in that other America that is not seen or heard or talked about by our leaders in Washington.  John and Elizabeth Edwards have always believed deeply that we can change this – that two Americas can become one, and that our country can rally around this common purpose.  So while his campaign may end today, the cause of their lives endures for all of us who still believe that we can achieve that dream of one America."
- Barack Obama

"John Edwards ended his campaign today in the same way he started it - by standing with the people who are too often left behind and nearly always left out of our national debate. John ran with compassion and conviction and lifted this campaign with his deep concern for the daily lives of the American people. That is what this election is about - it's about our people. And John is one of the greatest champions the American people could ask for. I wish John and Elizabeth all the best. They have my great personal respect and gratitude. And I know they will continue to fight passionately for the country and the people they love so deeply."
- Hillary Clinton

My best guess...Edwards endorses Obama, and then waits for a call from him offering the VP slot. Now picture Richardson doing the same thing with Clinton. What is more appealing to Democratic voters: Obama/Edwards or Clinton/Richardson? We'll find out next Tuesday.

- - - - -

Tonight is the Republican debate from the Ronald Reagan Library. Since I need to spend some time with my family this evening (because I haven't been able to the past few nights and can't tomorrow), I am not going to be able to give you commentary along the way. I did watch the first hour, however, and Romney and McCain started being civil to each other, but they are regressing (despite Anderson Cooper's reminder at the beginning about Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment: do not speak ill of other Republicans).

The stage is once again fabulous. Red, white and blue with Air Force One as the backdrop. You have to hand it to MSNBC and CNN...this is a beautiful (and extremely symbolic) location to hold two of the debates this year. If anything happens during the debate, and it doesn't appear that this is going to change much, you can read the AP summary tomorrow morning at The Courier (or feel free to make comments along the way).

Reminder about tomorrow night: CLINTON! OBAMA! DEBATE! It ought to be entertaining (coming from Hollywood).

-RSKnopfJr

Florida Primary Results

And the winners are...
   
REPUBLICANS

JOHN McCAIN - 36%
MITT ROMNEY - 31%
RUDY GIULIANI - 15%
MIKE HUCKABEE - 14%
RON PAUL - 3%
   
   
DEMOCRATS

HILLARY CLINTON - 50%
BARACK OBAMA - 33%
JOHN EDWARDS - 14%
   
76% of precincts reporting - updated 01/29/08 10:00p

A report by Mark Halperin of Time Magazine says that Giuliani is going to endorse McCain as early as Wednesday. >>

Confirmed by NBC and ABC News.

- - - - -

McCain clearly has the big mo going leading up to next week's Super Tuesday. It will be his momentum versus the pocketbook of Romney. If, as expected, Giuliani leaves the race, this helps McCain in more than one way.

McCain expects to get Giuliani's endorsement, but better yet, his main competition for the moderate, independent vote be exiting. With Huckabee declaring he is moving on, he is in competition with Mitt Romney for the conservative Republican voting block. So...take away McCain's main nemesis, but leave Romney's in place, and what does that spell? How about McCain/Huckabee 08?

On the Democratic side, this wasn't a contest. In fact, MSNBC kept reading a disclaimer through the evening that reminded people that Clinton did not actually win anything - just a victory of public perception...but as I enjoy saying to anyone who will listen, 'perception equals reality'.

Tomorrow night, there is a Republican debate at the Reagan Library in California hosted by CNN, the LA Times and Politico.com. The next night, the Democrats take the stage in LA. As for tomorrow, the line-up may be down to four...and I'll be watching to see if McCain and Huckabee do what they can to take out Romney (remember, McCain/Huckabee 08). I am wondering if the Dems will do the same, with Obama and Edwards doing their best to knock Clinton around (Obama/Edwards 08?).

What a fun race that would be!
 

-RSKnopfJr

Who will win the 2008 Florida Republican Primary?

poll conducted January 27-29, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

Florida Primary Preview

Well, today is the Florida primary, and we will find out a few things this evening

• Is Mitt Romney or John McCain the leader in the Republican race?
• Will Rudy Giuliani have the resources (or will) to continue on to next week's Super Tuesday contest?
• Who benefits from Fred Thompson dropping out last week?
• Even though the Democratic side is nothing more than a beauty contest (similar to Michigan, the Dem candidates vowed not to campaign in states that moved their primary dates earlier than the DNC allowed), does a win tonight by Clinton mean anything?

The biggest question coming about today today's race has to be Rudy Giuliani and his gamble about putting all of his eggs into the Florida basket. He was going against conventional wisdom by skipping the early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina), and putting his emphasis on Florida (California & New York next Tuesday). So, is this paying off? According to the polls...uh, no.

Insider Advantage     01/28
McCain - 31%   Romney - 30%   Huckabee - 15%   Giuliani - 13%

SurveyUSA     01/27-28
McCain - 32%   Romney - 31%   Giuliani - 15%   Huckabee - 13%

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby     01/27-28
McCain - 35%   Romney - 31%   Huckabee - 13%   Giuliani - 13%

Mitchell Research     01/27-28
Romney - 34%   McCain - 32%   Giuliani - 13%   Huckabee - 10%

Rasmussen     01/27
McCain - 31%   Romney - 31%   Giuliani - 16%   Huckabee - 11%

As you can see, things are not looking good for Rudy. A loss today probably knocks him out of the race, because recent polls in California, New York and New Jersey show him behind McCain (and if Giuliani cannot win New York and New Jersey, then he is not going to be the nominee).

Giuliani fights for survival as Florida votes
Florida voters cast their ballots on Tuesday in a contest that could anoint a front-runner among Republicans in the White House race and spell trouble for onetime favorite former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. >>
Reuters.com

With his limited financial resources, Huckabee had no chance of winning Florida either. A third-place finish, however, leaves him in the mix heading into next Tuesday...and don't forget, he still has the second most amount of delegates.

Romney vs McCain - the battle continues. Things have been churning this week, sometimes getting downright testy.

Candidates trade charges as Floridians flock to polls
The shouting from candidates was nearly -- but not quite over -- Tuesday as Floridians availed themselves of the most fundamental right and rite of democracy. >>
MiamiHerald.com

GOP hopefuls make final zip across Florida
Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney traded political punches as they crisscrossed Florida on Sunday hoping to break their deadlock in the state's winner-take-all presidential primary. >>
OrlandoSentinel.com

On the Democratic side, Florida really doesn't count in the overall standings. Right now, there are no delegates at stake, so there is nothing to win other than the perception battle. With Clinton's lead hovering around 20%, expect her to win this evening; although, it will be interesting to see if Obama's win in South Carolina can sway those numbers at all. If his supporters can cut Clinton's win down to 10% or below, watch how this gets spun into a victory for him, especially since he did not campaign in the state (unlike Clinton - she said she wouldn't, and technically she is ok, but she is now enjoying some time in the sunshine).

Clinton schedules appearance after polls close, avoids violating boycott
Polls opened across Florida this morning for a key presidential primary, with heavy turnout expected. >>
Tallahassee.com

When all the votes are counted, expect a 15% win for Clinton over Obama. On the Republican side, this is a tough one to call. It appears that momentum is on his side, and his message is resonating better with the voters. It won't be an upset if Romney wins, but give the edge to McCain at 35% to 31%. Giuliani will finish at 17% (and may exit the race tonight), Huckabee will have 13% (and move on to Super Tuesday) and Paul will wind up with 3% (and win every Internet poll). Tune in this evening for numbers and the winner.

-RSKnopfJr

State of the Union

Tonight is the last time we will hear a SOTU address from President George W Bush. Besides comments we will hear about Iraq, immigration and the economy, all eyes (and cameras) will be on Senators Obama (and Kennedy), Clinton and McCain (and Lieberman).

It is under a year until we will have a new President, and tonight's event is as much about the future as it is the present. Stay tuned for a few comments about what happens along the way, and what sort of political tension we can see from those running for GWB's office.

- - - - -

McCain decided to stay in Florida and campaign. I wonder how many times that will be mentioned during the pre and post-game?

- - - - -

Kemp Dirkthorne, Secretary of the Interior, drew the short straw and remained behind at the White House in case someone did the unthinkable and wiped out the Capitol.

- - - - -

An early plea to keep the Presidential election civil (to paraphrase). How about the events leading up to the nominations? Let's start small and go from there.

Our economy is undergoing a period of uncertainty. - the first 'duh' statement of the night so far.

- - - - -

If we could just get rid of earmarks, we might have a balanced budget every year (or run a surplus). GWB is gonna veto anything with these additions? Well, it was a nice thought - too bad he waited until his last months to do anything about this.

- - - - -

What is going to help those families living paycheck-to-paycheck? They aren't going to receive help from HOPE because they have probably already missed a payment or two along the way.

- - - - -

Six years ago, we came together to pass the No Child Left Behind Act, and today no one can deny its results. I really thought this statement was going to get booed out of the building, but there wasn't a peep. Ask the NEA what they think about this.

- - - - -

And to open the doors of these schools to more children, I ask you to support a new $300 million program called Pell Grants for Kids. How about getting more money into the public school system in general. Perhaps with all those earmarks you are going to veto?

- - - - -

Our security, our prosperity, and our environment all require reducing our dependence on oil. But wait until I leave office and cash in everything I put into a blind trust before entering office.

- - - - -

I'm sorry, but some of these comments write themselves. It is hard to take any speech seriously when we know that over the next year, Congress is not going to let him pass any major legislation.

- - - - -

There are two other pressing challenges that I have raised repeatedly before this body, and that this body has failed to address: entitlement spending and immigration.  No wonder McCain stayed away...he wants no part of this discussion. It's a good thing he is in Florida where this won't be an issue.

- - - - -

We are engaged in the defining ideological struggle of the 21st century. That is a very bold statement to make, yet one that makes sense for what has happened since September 2001. I don't think that anyone can refute that (worldwide) war, famine, disease and global warming are top issues. Yet until it affects us so close to home, we do not take major steps toward combating the issue.

- - - - -

Our military and civilians in Iraq are performing with courage and distinction, and they have the gratitude of our whole Nation. I just stood up and applauded at this statement...I hope you did as well.

- - - - -

And tonight in this hallowed chamber, with the American people as our witness, we make you a solemn pledge: In the fight ahead, you will have all you need to protect our Nation. And I ask the Congress to meet its responsibilities to these brave men and women by fully funding our troops.  If you are Clinton or Obama, after all the fighting they have done over this issue, what will they do now? With political cover (meaning that any budget increase without their votes counting), expect them to vote no (or 'present' - lol!).

- - - - -

A free Iraq will deny al Qaida a safe haven. A free Iraq will show millions across the Middle East that a future of liberty is possible. And a free Iraq will be a friend of America, a partner in fighting terror, and a source of stability in a dangerous part of the world. A free Iraq will keep the oil flowing.

- - - - -

This month in Ramallah and Jerusalem, I assured leaders from both sides that America will do, and I will do, everything we can to help them achieve a peace agreement that defines a Palestinian state by the end of this year. If he could pull that off, will it offset all the bad feelings that Iraq brought about? When you think of President Carter, do you think more about the peace treaty or inflation and high gas prices? Discuss amongst yourselves.

- - - - -

Does each party give a handout to the representatives telling them when to sit, politely clap or to stand and cheer?

Last few paragraphs. (Cue the stirring music and get the tissues ready)

- - - - -

I call on the Congress to enact the reforms recommended by Senator Bob Dole and Secretary Donna Shalala, so we can improve the system of care for our wounded warriors and help them build lives of hope, promise, and dignity. Absolutely!!! With some additional proposals that would help military spouses and their children, this is the type of thing everyone should be able to support.

- - - - -

Final paragraph for posterity...

By trusting the people, our Founders wagered that a great and noble Nation could be built on the liberty that resides in the hearts of all men and women. By trusting the people, succeeding generations transformed our fragile young democracy into the most powerful Nation on earth and a beacon of hope for millions. And so long as we continue to trust the people, our Nation will prosper, our liberty will be secure, and the State of our Union will remain strong. So tonight, with confidence in freedom's power, and trust in the people, let us set forth to do their business. God bless America.

- - - - -

Not a real inspiring speech, and not much in the way of real specifics. It was a politically safe speech, perhaps because he wants some cooperation in his final few months. I wonder if he is going to let Congress set the domestic agenda while he concentrates on foreign policy (especially that peace treaty).

Since the approval ratings for both the President, and Congress, continue to remain near all-time lows, it is clear that Americans are not thrilled with how our government is doing the people's business. Let's hope that over the next year, we can actually see these groups working together to achieve everything we NEED done.

-RSKnopfJr

South Carolina Primary Results (D)

And the winner is...

DEMOCRATS

BARACK OBAMA - 55%
HILLARY CLINTON - 27%
JOHN EDWARDS - 18%
DENNIS KUCINICH - 0%

99% of precincts reporting - updated 01/26/08 10:00p

-RSKnopfJr

Who will win the 2008 South Carolina Democratic Primary?

poll conducted January 20-26, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

South Carolina Democratic Primary Preview

Not to say it is over for Obama if he does not win South Carolina, but outside of Illinois, this is probably his best chance of winning a state and stemming the Clinton tide. I would like to see a Democratic contest just as exciting and unpredictable as their GOP counterparts, but if Clinton wins today, the nomination is hers.

Looking at the latest numbers for the state, the results (and expectations) are the same as they were heading into New Hampshire. Obama has the lead and is expected to win.

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby   01/24-25
Obama - 41%     Clinton - 26%     Edwards - 19%

Survey USA   01/23-24
Obama - 43%     Clinton - 30%     Edwards - 24%

Mason-Dixon   01/22-23
Obama - 38%     Clinton - 30%     Edwards - 19%

Clemson   01/15-23
Obama - 27%     Clinton - 20%     Edwards - 17%

Rasmussen   01/21
Obama - 43%     Clinton - 28%     Edwards - 17%

Edwards is keeping it close, and some have wondered if he could overtake Clinton and pull out a second-place finish. It may be possible, but not probable; Edwards' goal at this point is to get himself into the best possible position to play a role in the administration of the Democratic nominee (possible Attorney General?).

Edwards: Look for a 'surprise' in vote
Former N.C. Sen. John Edwards said he thinks there is an " opportunity for a surprise"  in Saturday's Democratic presidential primary. >>
The State

S.C. Democrats expect higher turnout at polls
Reasons abound, but nearly everyone expects a higher-than-average turnout for the Democratic primary today, while the Republican primary saw surprisingly low numbers of voters. >>
The Sun News

SC voters cast ballots with history, political attacks in mind
The skies were still dark when Keisha Adams got to the polls Saturday morning in South Carolina, where residents were to decide the outcome of the first Democratic primary in the South. >>
IslandPacket.com

State's delegates to be assigned by percentage
South Carolina has 54 national convention delegates at stake in today's Democratic presidential primary. >>
The Greenville News

What to expect...let's say that this time the pollsters learned their lesson and Obama will win. Final prediction: Obama 39%   Clinton - 33%   Edwards 25%...and each camp spinning how they came out ahead.

Results tonight as they come in.

-RSKnopfJr

This & That

I thought he was going to do this during his speech after the South Carolina primary, but today it happened. Fred Thompson is officially out of the race:

"Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people."

---

Ron Paul is still going strong, and in an e-mail sent today, he says that supporters raised over $1.85 million yesterday.

Speaking of money, there is a story in The American Spectator that Mike Huckabee is running out of money, and is having to curtail his activities in Florida...

Less than a month after a huge upset victory, and promises that fundraising would be ramped up, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is asking his senior staff to keep working for him without pay, while lower level campaign staff are seeing their salaries cut dramatically or eliminated altogether.

"The goal is to get a leaner, meaner campaign structure moving into Super Tuesday," says a senior campaign adviser.

But many of those being asked to take the cut are refusing, and walking away, leaving the campaign with holes to fill.

"The money simply hasn't come in at the rate that we expected," says the aide. "Florida is a $7 million commitment that we can't meet, and if we did, that leaves us exposed for Super Tuesday, where we have a lot of states and a lot media buys. We had to make tough decisions."

---

Looking ahead to South Carolina, Obama definitely needs a win if he is going to have any hope of stopping Clinton from the nomination. Everyone is making such a big deal that he should do well from the African-American vote in the state, but we heard similar arguments in New Hampshire (Obama was ahead in the polls by 7-16%) and Nevada (the union turnout was going to help Obama to a win). Looking at the recent polls, done before Nevada, show Obama still in the lead.

If you missed the Democratic debate on CNN last night, the gloves were definitely off. I almost felt sorry for John Edwards who seemed like a third wheel on stage at times. People have been wondering, if Edwards does not win in South Carolina (his territory), should he drop out?  As long as he is collecting delegates, and can influence who gets the nomination, he will stay in the race. This is (probably) the last time he runs for President, so he is going to make the most of it.

-RSKnopfJr

Who will win the 2008 South Carolina Republican Primary?

poll conducted January 16-19, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

South Carolina Primary Results (R)

And the winner is...

REPUBLICANS

JOHN McCAIN - 33%

MIKE HUCKABEE - 30%

FRED THOMPSON - 16%

MITT ROMNEY - 15%

RON PAUL - 4%

RUDY GIULIANI - 2%

DUNCAN HUNTER - 0%

93% of precincts reporting - updated 01/19/08 11:45p

 

This is pretty much expected, and I think everyone can see now that Thompson and Huckabee just are not going to be able to do it this time around. As much as I hate to admit it, the Republican field is down to three, and Florida is going to be a big test to see if Giuliani can gain any traction.

Huckabee seemed to be hurt by support for Thompson, and that is probably fine with Fred; if he can't win, he is happy that his good friend McCain got the victory. In a speech to supporters this evening, it seemed like Thompson was getting ready to announce that he was withdrawing, but it seemed like he couldn't bring himself to utter the sentence.

Huckabee still remains a VP candidate, and you have to imagine that McCain and Romney would not look to each other to accept the slot if one of them became the nominee. So...next stop is Florida, and we get to see how well Giuliani's strategic team planned this. Early look at the numbers for the Florida primary in 10 days (according to the latest poll from Insider Advantage):

• Giuliani - 21%
• McCain - 20%
• Romney - 20%
• Huckabee - 13%
• Thompson - 7%
• Paul - 6%

Received an e-mail tonight from Duncan Hunter's campaign...he is dropping out of the Republican race for President:

"We started this campaign a year ago right here, in San Diego Harbor, against the backdrop of American Naval power.   We launched a campaign emphasizing a strong national defense, enforceable borders and restoring  the industrial base of America.  Today we end this campaign.  The Nevada caucuses reflecting only 2% of the vote for me.   I ran the campaign exactly the way I wanted to, and at this point not being able to gain traction in conservative states of Nevada and South Carolina, it's time to allow our volunteers and supporters to focus on the campaigns that remain viable."

-RSKnopfJr

Nevada Caucus Results

And the winners are...

REPUBLICANS

MITT ROMNEY - 51%

RON PAUL - 14%

JOHN McCAIN - 13%

MIKE HUCKABEE - 8%

FRED THOMPSON - 8%

RUDY GIULIANI - 4%

DUNCAN HUNTER - 2%

TOM TANCREDO - 0%

    

DEMOCRATS

HILLARY CLINTON - 51%

BARACK OBAMA - 45%

JOHN EDWARDS - 4%

uncommitted - 0%

DENNIS KUCINICH - 0%

BILL RICHARDSON - 0%

98% of precincts reporting - updated 01/19/08 8:55p

 

No great surprise in the results - and when it came to delegates awarded, Clinton and Obama basically tied. Clinton did well with women again, while the unions came out to do well for Obama. Next week is South Carolina, and we'll see if Obama can win the state he needs to.

Romney put some effort into this state, and was awarded for the money he invested. Also, the Mormon turnout helped him, but he would have won the caucus anyway. We know that he is not going to win South Carolina, so the headline for the day at least has him as a winner...not too bad when Florida is on the horizon, and Giuliani appears to be fading fast. Another 'gold' medal for Mitt, and he is positioning himself well to be one of the final contestants for the Republican nomination.

-RSKnopfJr

Previewing Saturday

I suppose it is a little too late to post my thoughts on the Republicans in Nevada, because the Associated Press just announced that Romney will win the state.

It makes sense, since he was polling in double-digits over McCain and Huckabee, and decided to spend his time (and money) in Nevada instead of South Carolina (where he was going to be hard pressed to surpass Huckabee, McCain and Thompson).

On the Democratic side in Nevada, it comes down to Clinton and Obama (again). Despite the brief respite of anger during the most recent debate, things heated up again this week between the two sides...with former President Clinton once again getting into the mix - alleging voter suppression.

Despite his endorsement from the culinary workers in Las Vegas, Obama's advancements will probably not overtake the infrastructure that Clinton has built over the last two years. Clinton should win by 7-9%, and will have some momentum going into next week's South Carolina primary.

Speaking of SC, the Republicans have their primary today. McCain is seeking to reverse past fortunes and pull out a victory in the state, while Huckabee is looking for a surge in support from Christians, and Thompson is hoping his southern roots will help get voters.

Despite all of the campaigning that has been done, the defining factor may be the weather. A snow storm was predicted for the northern part of the state, and this could affect turnout of Huckabee supporters. The southern and eastern parts of the state were only calling for rain, and this would seem to benefit McCain and the cluster of people backing him.

When all is said and done, look for McCain to get past Huckabee by 5-7%. He has been involved in this process over the past several years, and has roots (and a lot of support) in the state. Despite his (supposed) proximity to the state, Thompson has just not gathered the depth of support and fervor that is needed for a victory.

Results as they come in.

-RSKnopfJr

Latest News from SC & NV

The latest news from South Carolina, which holds a Republican Primary this Saturday...

McCain, Huckabee lead
"McCain and Mike Huckabee are neck and neck heading into Saturday's Republican primary in South Carolina, where the outcome could hinge on a bloc of undecided evangelical voters, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll." >>
The State

Lieutenant governor endorses Huckabee
"Republican Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer on Thursday endorsed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee for the GOP presidential nomination." >>
The Greenville News

Thompson, McCain each gain endorsements
"Two GOP presidential hopefuls hoped to get a boost down the home stretch with a few last-minute endorsements." >>
The Post and Courier

Star power helps Huckabee
"Drenching rain, schedule delays and a change of venue didn't stop a few hundred damp supporters from greeting former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and his celebrity entourage at a hangar on the former Myrtle Beach Air Force Base Thursday morning." >>
The Sun News

...and across the country, some news from Nevada which holds a caucus for both parties on Saturday...

Democrats toughen up
"After wearing helmets while riding in tanks and being for things before being against them, the party of the late response and the lame attack ad has learned how to do politics this election." >>
Las Vegas Sun

It’s Neh-VA-duh, not Neh-VAH-duh
"Anyone who’s watched or listened to the 2008 presidential campaigns and local caucus news coverage lately has heard many politicians, journalists and even some of our neighbors within Nevada butcher the Silver State’s name." >>
Nevada News

Voters irked by volume of campaign phone calls
"The caucus-related telephone calls started at the beginning of January, said Yvonne Hemp of Lovelock." >>
Reno Gazette-Journal

Nevada going to Clinton, Romney
"Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mitt Romney have comfortable leads in Nevada going into Saturday's presidential campaign caucuses, according to a new Review-Journal poll." >>
Review-Journal

Caucus training appealed to voters sweet tooth
"As confusing as it might seem, participants at a mock caucus training session in Ely last week chose between candidates named Chocolate, Strawberry and Vanilla. The political party was Ice Cream, aka Democrat, and the other party not represented at the mock caucus was Cake, aka Republican."  >>
The Ely Times

Tune in tomorrow for my preview and predictions.

-RSKnopfJr

Michigan Primary Results

Fun night- a primary and a debate.

And the winner is...

REPUBLICANS

MITT ROMNEY - 39%

JOHN McCAIN - 30%

MIKE HUCKABEE - 16%

RON PAUL - 6%

FRED THOMPSON - 4%

RUDY GIULIANI - 3%

uncommitted - 2%

DUNCAN HUNTER - 0%

DEMOCRATS

HILLARY CLINTON - 57%

uncommitted - 38%

DENNIS KUCINICH - 4%

CHRISTOPHER DODD - 1%

MIKE GRAVEL - 0%

81% of precincts reporting - updated 01/15/08 11:00p

Well, I don't think there were any surprises tonight. Romney stays alive with the win, and now we have three different winners in the three Republican elections. Next up for the GOP, South Carolina and Nevada.

What is more interesting on the Democratic side, uncommitted getting 38% of the vote, or Christoper Dodd (out of the race) getting more votes that Mike Gravel (still in the race)...with not much else going on, you look for anything to talk about.

I have been watching the Democratic debate on MSNBC tonight. Pretty civil, especially after the last few days of heated accusations about race. Everyone is playing nice again...until tomorrow.  ;-)

I'm going to bed.

-RSKnopfJr

Who will win the 2008 Michigan Republican Primary?

poll conducted January 9-15, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

Previewing the Michigan Primary

Looking ahead to tomorrow's Michigan Primary...

In this year of unusual political dynamics, a few more will be in play tomorrow. You all remember how states were jockeying to move their primary election days earlier and earlier? Of course you do - it was in all the papers. Well, Michigan was going to be sanctioned by the political parties for doing this (really, it was just a threat of losing delegates (representation) at the national conventions).

Well, on the Democratic side, this meant that some of the candidates were not going to upset the party and asked to have their names removed from the ballot. On the ballot tomorrow, you will not see Obama or Edwards (or Biden & Richardson). Instead, the ballot will read

• Hillary Clinton
• Christopher Dodd
• Mike Gravel
• Dennis Kucinich
• Uncommitted

In it's guide to voters, the Michigan Democratic Party urges supporters of those not appearing on the ballot to vote 'uncommitted' - and then the delegates selected can vote for whomever they want to at the national convention.

Here's the 'polling' that has been done

Detroit News  01/09-12
Clinton - 56%
Uncommitted - 33%

Detroit Free Press  01/09-11
Clinton - 56%
Uncommitted - 30%

American Research Group  01/09-11
Clinton - 57%
Uncommitted - 28%

Now, here is what makes things interesting...

In Michigan, when you arrive to vote, you are asked whether you want a Democratic or Republican ballot, and a record is made of which one you take. So, with no one to vote for, will Democrats try to influence the Republican race and vote for someone who may not be the strongest candidate? With independents in play as well, it will be interesting to see who gains from all of this.

Newspaper endorsements appear to be for Romney (Grand Rapids Press, Oakland Press) and McCain (Detroit News, Detroit Free Press). The polls confirm that this is a close, two-person race. If you look at one set of polls...

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby  01/11-13
McCain - 27%
Romney - 24%
Huckabee - 15%
Paul - 8%
Giuliani - 6%
Thompson - 5%

Detroit News  01/09-12
McCain - 27%
Romney - 26%
Huckabee - 19%
Giuliani - 6%
Thompson - 5%
Paul - 4%

American Research Group  01/09-11
McCain - 34%
Romney - 27%
Huckabee - 15%
Paul - 9%
Giuliani - 5%
Thompson - 4%

...or another set...

Mitchell Research  01/10-13
Romney - 29%
McCain - 27%
Huckabee - 12%
Paul - 7%
Giuliani - 7%
Thompson - 4%

Detroit Free Press  01/09-11
Romney - 27%
McCain - 22%
Huckabee - 16%
Paul - 5%
Giuliani - 4%
Thompson - 4%

Mason-Dixon  01/09-11
Romney - 30%
McCain - 22%
Huckabee - 17%
Thompson - 7%
Giuliani - 6%
Paul - 4%

...you see just how even/split Republican voters are.

Romney desperately needs a gold to go with the two silvers from Iowa an New Hampshire (sorry, but Wyoming does not count for purposes of this discussion). Huckabee can last until South Carolina, so he will survive another third-place finish. McCain is just looking to maintain the status quo, and even a second-place finish will be OK since this is considered 'Romney-territory'.

You've got to think that all the momentum is moving McCain's way, and with independents not having anyone to vote for on a Democratic ballot (and factoring in he won this state back in 2000), he is in better shape than Romney. Despite the connections and history with the state, Romney appears to be on his last legs and will not probably survive a loss; there was a reason he pulled commercial money from other states to put it into Michigan.

Final order - McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Paul, Giuliani, Thompson. While waiting for the final returns to come in tomorrow night (polls close at 8), tune in to a Democratic debate from Las Vegas, 9p on MSNBC: The Place for Politics.

-RSKnopfJr

This & That

A busy day so far...

An Upbeat Richardson Bows Out
"It was an upbeat Gov. Bill Richardson who ended his quest for the presidency in a 14-minute speech, often interrupted by applause and chants of "We Want Bill" from a crowd that packed the State Capitol Rotunda shortly after 1 p.m." >>
Albuquerque Journal

Interesting that he did not endorse anyone. Does this leave the door open for him to be the VP choice of the eventual Democratic nominee?

Meanwhile, in South Carolina...

On Edwards' Turf, Kerry Backs Obama
"Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, endorsed Sen. Barack Obama for the White House Thursday in a timely slap at Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as well as his own vice presidential running mate." >>
WYFF NBC 4

...and tonight, an important debate in Myrtle Beach. McCain needs to sustain the momentum, Thompson needs a win or he is out, and Huckabee needs to show he was not a one-hit wonder...

GOP takes the podium
"So different, so fast. The network official expressed surprise as she looked at the glowing American flag backdrop and the six candidates' podiums in the debate hall Wednesday afternoon." >>
Myrtle Beach Online

...also, it appears that McCain got a huge bump from his win in New Hampshire, because new polls show him ahead in South Carolina...

Fox News

• McCain - 25%
• Huckabee - 18%
• Romney - 17%
• Thompson - 9%
• Giuliani - 5%
• Paul - 5%

Rasmussen

• McCain - 27%
• Huckabee - 24%
• Romney - 16%
• Thompson - 12%
• Giuliani - 6%
• Paul - 5%

...while on the Democratic side, Obama does not seem to be hurt too much by his second place finish in New Hampshire. The latest poll in South Carolina still show him in the lead (but we have seen that before)...

Rasmussen

• Obama - 42%
• Clinton - 30%
• Edwards - 15%

Since I am not going to be home this evening, I will not be able to blog the debate. If you want to watch, however, it will be on FOXnews.

Also, I am preparing questions to send to the individuals running for county commissioner, so if you have any suggestions, e-mail me or put them in the comments section.

-RSKnopfJr

An early look at South Carolina

With the results in New Hampshire, you know these numbers are going to change...but for now, here is an early look at South Carolina.

Republican Primary - January 19
SurveyUSA: 01/04-06
Huckabee - 36%
Romney - 19%
McCain - 17%
Thompson - 11%
Giuliani - 9%
Paul - 5%

Rasmussen: 01/06
Huckabee - 28%
McCain - 21%
Romney - 15%
Thompson - 11%
Giuliani - 10%
Paul - 4%

InsiderAdvantage: 01/07
Huckabee - 33%
McCain - 21%
Romney - 14%
Giuliani - 8%
Paul - 5%
Thompson - 5%

Democratic Primary - Jan 26
SurveyUSA: 01/04-06
Obama - 50%
Clinton - 30%
Edwards - 16%

Rasmussen: 01/06
Obama - 42%
Clinton - 30%
Edwards - 14%

InsiderAdvantgage: 01/07
Obama - 40%
Clinton - 33%
Edwards - 15%


More numbers from South Carolina, and Michigan, as they become available.

-RSKnopfJr

Who will win the 2008 New Hamphire Republican Primary?

poll conducted January 3-8, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

New Hampshire Primary Results

Results are trickling in, and I will post final results when they arrive, but for now, all you need to know is...

REPUBLICANS

JOHN McCAIN - 37%

MITT ROMNEY - 32%

MIKE HUCKABEE - 11%

RUDY GIULIANI - 9%

RON PAUL - 8%

FRED THOMPSON - 1%

DUNCAN HUNTER - 0%

73% of precincts reporting

 

DEMOCRATS

HILLARY CLINTON - 39%

BARACK OBAMA - 36%

JOHN EDWARDS - 17%

BILL RICHARDSON - 5%

DENNIS KUCINICH - 2%

JOE BIDEN - 0%

MIKE GRAVEL - 0%

CHRIS DODD - 0%

75% of precincts reporting

updated 01.08.08 10:50p

    

I'm going to bed, amazed as everyone that the pollsters got it so wrong. We'll see what the explanations are. More tomorrow.

-RSKnopfJr

Previewing the New Hampshire Primary

So what's going on in New Hampshire today?

New Hampshire Turnout 'Absolutely Huge'
ABC News' Karen Travers Reports: New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlan told ABC News that turnout among primary voters today is "absolutely huge" -- and there are concerns about running out of ballots in towns like Portsmouth, Keene, Hudson and Pelham.

"Turnout is absolutely huge and towns are starting to get concerned that they may not have enough ballots," Scanlan said. "We are working on those issues. Everything else seems to be going smoothly." >>

Early Results
Just after midnight, two New Hampshire towns cast their ballots:
Dixville Notch

Democrats

• Obama - 7 votes
• Edwards - 2 votes
• Richardson - 1 vote

Republicans

• McCain - 4 votes
• Romney - 2 votes
• Giuliani - 1 vote

Hart's Location

Democrats

• Obama - 9 votes
• Clinton - 3 votes
• Edwards - 1 vote

Republicans

• McCain - 6 votes
• Huckabee - 5 votes
• Paul - 4 votes
• Romney - 1 vote

Polls for the state have to close by 8p ET.

There are people already looking ahead to the chaos they predict will surround Clinton if (when) she loses in New Hampshire...

Clinton allies may dump millions into anti-Obama group
"A panicked and cash-short Clinton campaign is seriously considering giving up on the Nevada caucuses and on the South Carolina primary in order to regroup and to save resources for the massive 19-state mega-primary on February 5." >>

Staff shakeup ahead?
"Obama and Clinton are now tied with 33 percent of the vote each nationally, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll. The finding is a stunning change from mid-December, when Clinton held an 18-point advantage over Obama." >>

Ready to give Barack the part
"From the beginning, Hollywood has loved Obama's story -- his "pitch" as they say -- but was wary of his real box office potential." >>

Predictions?
It is difficult to go against the momentum Obama has built, and the question has changed from IF he can win to HOW MUCH he will win by. Despite polls that have him ahead by double-digits, I am not sure that the final results will be that lopsided. Heavy turnout can go both ways, especially for a state so close to the Clinton base of New York. I think that results will be close to what happened in Iowa. Look for Obama by 8% over Clinton over Edwards over Richardson.

For the Republicans, I have to admit that after the hit he took during the Saturday night debate, Romney came back and won on Sunday. It might, however, be too late to change the outcome. The only hope for Romney is that the independents that have previously turned out for McCain, instead decide to vote for Obama. If that happens, Romney pulls off the minor upset. Since reports are that Democratic turnout is heavy, I will go with with my gut and pick Romney by 3% over McCain over Giuliani over Huckabee over Paul over Thompson over Hunter.

Check back tonight for more information and results as they happen.

-RSKnopfJr

More from New Hampshire, including new polls

Two new polls out of New Hampshire, and more good news for McCain and Obama...

USAToday/Gallup