Flag City Politico

Happy Thanksgiving!

I'll be back next week, but wanted to check-in and wish everyone a very Happy Thanksgiving! Enjoy the holiday and the time you spend with family and friends.

-RSKnopfJr

Who is your choice for the 2012 Republican Nomination?

conducted November 5-25, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

By The Numbers - part II

Was the election a landslide, and does Obama have a mandate? With no clear definition for these two terms, the recent results are open to individual interpretation. I'm just sharing these numbers with you - you can make your own decision.

Note: the records I found did not list popular vote totals for elections prior to 1824.

Popular Vote - Most Votes Cast for candidate
1. 2008 Obama  66,056,046
2. 2004 Bush  62,040,610
3. 2004 Kerry  59,028,444
4. 2008 McCain  57,405,905
5. 1984 Reagan  54,455,472

Margin of victory
1. 1972 Nixon  17,995,488
2. 1964 Johnson  17,951,287
3. 1984 Reagan  16,878,120
4. 1936 Roosevelt  11,070,786
5. 1956 Eisenhower  9,551,152
6. 1980 Reagan  8,423,115
7. 2008 Obama  8,217,246
8. 1996 Clinton  8,201,370
9. 1924 Coolidge  7,337,547
10. 1988 Bush  7,077,121
...
15. 1992 Clinton  5,805,256
18. 2004 Bush  3,012,499
22. 1976 Carter  1,683,247
28. 1968 Nixon  511,944
40. 1969 Kennedy  112,827
47. 2000 Bush  (543,816)

Percentage of popular vote
1. 1964 Johnson  61.1%
2. 1936 Roosevelt  60.8%
3. 1972 Nixon  60.7%
4. 1920 Harding  60.3%
5. 1984 Reagan  58.8%
6. 1928 Hoover  58.2%
T7. 1956 Eisenhower  57.4%
T7. 1932 Roosevelt  57.4%
9. 1904 Roosevelt  56.4%
10. 1828 Jackson  56.0%
11. 1872 Grant  55.6%
12. 1952 Eisenhower  55.2%
13. 1864 Lincoln  55.0%
14. 1940 Roosevelt  54.7%
15. 1832 Jackson  54.2%
16. 1924 Coolidge  54.0%
17. 1988 Bush  53.4%
18. 1944 Rooseelt  53.4%
19. 1840 Harrison  52.9%
20. 1868 Grant  52.7%
21. 2008 Obama  52.6%
...
T27. 2004 Bush  50.7%
T27. 1980 Reagan  50.7%
29. 1976 Carter  50.1%
30. 1960 Kennedy  49.7%
T33. 1996 Clinton  49.2%
T37. 2000 Bush  47.9%
44. 1992 Clinton  43.0%
46. 1860 Lincoln  39.8%

Percentage margin of victory
1. 1920 Harding  16.2%
2. 1924 Coolidge  25.2%
3. 1936 Roosevelt  24.3%
4. 1972 Nixon  23.2%
5. 1964 Johnson  22.6%
6. 1904 Roosevelt  18.8%
7. 1984 Reagan  18.2%
8. 1932 Roosevelt  17.7%
9. 1928 Hoover  17.4%
10. 1832 Jackson  16.8%
11. 1956 Eisenhower  15.4%
12. 1912 Wilson  14.4%
13. 1836 Van Buren  14.2%
14. 1828 Jackson  12.4%
15. 1856 Buchanan  12.2%
16. 1872 Grant  11.8%
17. 1952 Eisenhower  10.9%
18. 1860 Lincoln  10.3%
19. 1864 Lincoln  10.0%
20. 1940 Roosevelt  9.9%
21. 1980 Reagan  9.7%
22. 1908 Taft  8.6%
23. 1996 Clinton  8.5%
24. 1988 Bush  7.8%
25. 1944 Roosevelt  7.5%
26. 1852 Pierce  6.9%
27. 2008 Obama  6.5%
...
30. 1992 Clinton  5.6%
37. 2004 Bush  2.4%
38. 1976 Carter  2.1%
40. 1968 Nixon  0.7%
42. 1960 Kennedy  0.2%
44. 2000 Bush  (0.5%)

Have you hugged a veteran today?

-RSKnopfJr

Veterans Day

The following is a quote from 'Saving Private Ryan'. Even though the letter is thought by some to not be written by Lincoln, what the words convey is meaningful and poetic.

"Dear Madam: I have been shown in the files of the War Department a statement of the Adjutant-General of Massachusetts that you are the mother of five sons who have died gloriously on the field of battle. I feel how weak and fruitless must be any words of mine which should attempt to beguile you from the grief of a loss so overwhelming. But I cannot refrain from tendering to you the consolation that may be found in the thanks of the Republic they died to save. I pray that our heavenly Father may assuage the anguish of your bereavement, and leave you only the cherished memory of the loved and lost, and the solemn pride that must be yours to have laid so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of freedom. Yours very sincerely and respectfully, Abraham Lincoln."

Tuesday, November 11, is a day to honor all the men and women who have served in America’s armed forces and to thank them for that service. For information on the history of Veterans Day, this year’s national and regional observances, to read the President’s 2008 Veterans Day Proclamation or to download this year’s Veterans Day poster, visit http://www.va.gov/vetsday.

Remember to thank a veteran today, tomorrow, and every day.

-RSKnopfJr

By The Numbers - part I

Was the election a landslide, and does Obama have a mandate? With no clear definition for these two terms, the recent results are open to individual interpretation. I'm just sharing these numbers with you - you can make your own decision.

The most electoral votes awarded to a candidate since the total possible moved to 538:
1. Reagan 1984 - 525
2. Nixon 1972 - 520
3. Reagan 1980 - 489
4. Johnson 1964 - 486
5. Bush 1988 - 426
6. Clinton 1996 - 379
7. Clinton 1992 - 370
8. Obama 2008 - 365
9. Nixon 1968 - 301
10. Carter 1976 - 297
11. Bush 2004 - 286
12. Bush 2000 - 271

The most electoral votes awarded to a candidate - out of 56 elections:
1. Reagan 1984 - 525
2. Roosevelt 1936 - 523
3. Nixon 1972 - 520
4. Reagan 1980 - 489
5. Johnson 1984 - 486
6. Roosevelt 1932 - 472
7. Eisenhower 1956 - 449
8. Roosevelt 1940 - 449
9. Hoover 1928 - 444
10. Eisenhower 1952 - 442
11. Wilson 1912 - 435
12. Roosevelt 1944 - 432
13. Bush 1988 - 426
14. Harding 1920 - 404
15. Coolidge 1924 - 382
16. Clinton 1996 - 379
17. Clinton 1992 - 370
18. Obama 2008 - 365

The highest percentage of electoral votes awarded to a candidate - out of 56 elections:
T1. Washington 1789 - 100% (69 of 69)
T1. Washington 1792 - 100% (132 of 132)
3. Monroe 1820 - 99.6% (231 of 232)
4. Roosevelt 1936 - 98.5% (523 of 531)
5. Reagan 1984 - 97.6% (525 of 538)
5. Nixon 1972 - 96.7% (520 of 538)
6. Jefferson 1804 - 92.1% (162 of 176)
7. Lincoln 1864 - 91% (212 of 233)
8. Reagan 1980 - 90.9% (489 of 538)
9. Johnson 1964 - 90.3% (486 of 538)
10. Roosevelt 1932 - 88.9% (472 of 531)
11. Eisenhower 1956 - 86.1% (457 of 531)
12. Pierce 1852 - 85.8% (254 of 296)
13. Roosevelt 1940 - 84.6% (449 of 531)
14. Monroe 1816 - 84.3% (183 of 217)
15. Hoover 1928 - 83.6% (444 of 531)
16. Eisenhower 1952 - 83.2% (442 of 531)
17. Grant 1872 - 82% (286 of 349)
18. Wilson 1912 - 81.9% (435 of 531)
19. Roosevelt 1944 - 81.4% (432 of 531)
20. Harrison 1840 - 79.6% 234 of 294)
21. Bush 1988 - 79.2% (426 of 538)
22. Jackson 1832 - 76.6% (219 of 286)
23. Harding 1920 - 76.1% (404 of 531)
24. Grant 1868 - 72.8% (214 of 294)
25. Roosevelt 1904 - 70.6% (336 of 476)
26. Clinton 1996 - 70.5% (379 of 538)
27. Madison 1808 - 69.7% (122 of 175)
28. Clinton 1992 - 68.8% (370 of 538)
29. Jackson 1828 - 68.2% (178 of 261)
30. Obama 2008 - 67.8% (365 of 538)
...
54. Bush 2000 - 50.4% (271 of 538)
55. Hayes 1876 - 50.1% (185 of 369
56. Adams 1824 - 32.18% (84 of 261)

Since 1960, the change in electoral college votes for the party that won versus the previous election (* change in winning party):
60-64: Johnson 183 than Kennedy
64-68: Nixon* 249 more than Goldwater
68-72: Nixon 219 more than Nixon
72-76: Carter* 280 more than McGovern
76-80: Reagan* 249 more than Ford
80-84: Reagan 36 more than Reagan
84-88: Bush 99 less than Reagan
88-92: Clinton* 258 more than Dukakis
92-96: Clinton 9 more than Clinton
96-00: Bush* 112 more than Dole
00-04: Bush 15 more than Bush
04-08: Obama* 113 more than Kerry

Tomorrow, the popular vote.

-RSKnopfJr

Afterthoughts

As I sat at home Tuesday night, I made sure my family was with me, watching as history unfolded before our eyes. When my daughters are older and talk about this election with their children and grand-children, I want them to recall this night and what it means to be an American.

We watched the polls close one by one. Being the teacher I am, I explained what was going on as we flipped back and forth between channels. We talked about how networks can predict state victories even though a single vote hadn't been counted. Red and blue, closing times, electoral college, 270...my kids were old enough to understand what happening, and were interested enough to pay attention and ask questions of their own. I suppose it was a reward for all the episodes of 'Hannah Montana' I have endured.

I explained that the first major test was going to be Pennsylvania, and that we would probably know at that point who was going to be the next President. When the networks flipped it blue, I knew it was over...one daughter started cheering, while the other stared at the television as her eyes started to tear up. We watched as the commentators started shifting their talk from possible McCain winning scenarios, to the significance of what was happening and what it meant.

The election was not so much a mandate for change to a liberal agenda, it was really a combination of several factors that, ultimately, had little to do with policy

• a personal rejection of President Bush and the perception of what has happened over the past eight years
• the economy faltering over the past several months, and the recent crisis/bailout
• the imagery of a candidate exuding Kennedyesque charisma and rhetoric versus another old white guy perceived to be grumpy and out of touch

In his own right, Ronald Reagan spawned an economic evolution and political revolution. Reagan's victory came at a time where the country was looking to put their problems behind them. Instead of inflation, lines at the gas pumps and hostages in Iran, the nation chose someone who was optimistic about the country and that we could be great again.

This year was similar to 1980 in many ways. With wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, an economy that hasn't been doing well, gas prices at all-time highs and international opinion of us at all-time lows, the country yearned for a new start. Once again, the people chose to go with a candidate full of optimistic enthusiasm; someone who wrote of hope, preached change and became a symbol of equality and unlimited potential.

As we move through the next days, weeks and months, time will tell whether Obama is the transformational figure he was elected to be. Washington has a way of dampening idealistic intentions, but with a Democratic Congress to partner with, there should be no excuses as to why meaningful action can no longer be taken. Despite what you may be hearing from some individuals across the country, I don't think this election fell into the category of 'choosing between the lesser of two evils'.

A lot has been said the past few days in our homes and offices, through our newspapers and on the Internet, through phone calls and chats across a backyard fence. I want to encourage people to not use a victory as an opportunity to look down on others and disparage them for their beliefs. My daughter did not want to go to school yesterday because she feared of the way she was going to be treated. She came home upset that boys who supported Obama were making fun of others. I realize that middle school boys are crazy (I should know, I used to belong to the club), and that bad times come with the good. I just want everyone to realize that the call for change should include the desire to make things better for everyone, not just those who wore a campaign button with the Obama 'O'.

In that same spirit, if you think that Obama is going to be a poor President and do things that will harm the country, you have every right to believe that and share your opinion with others. Instead of being resentful, mean-spirited or full of anger, I would encourage you to channel that passion and to use it to better yourselves and the community. If you don't want redistribution of wealth, when is the last time you volunteered at a community center or food pantry? If you do not want universal health care, when is the last time you wrote your Congressman or wrote a letter to the editor? Instead of using words that can be hurtful or misinterpreted, get involved and make your voice heard through constructive action.

Whether the victor was Obama or Palin, one of the two was going to follow in the footsteps of other individuals who broke through barriers. Election night was more than a celebration of one political party, one candidate or one race. It was a moment to reflect on the maturation of our nation. Despite your personal ideology, you cannot deny that this election was a defining moment for our nation. How Obama ultimately is judged is a matter for future generations and historians; for now, however, we are a nation that has taken action toward eliminating racial and gender boundaries, and proving to the world that despite out young age, we just grew up a little.

-RSKnopfJr

Who are you voting for President of the United States?

conducted November 2-4, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

Preparing for History

Networks ready Election Night gizmos
CNN
Election night technology has come a long way since Tim Russert memorably held up a white board with three words scrawled on it: “Florida! Florida! Florida!”

But when CNN’s Wolf Blitzer talks with Candy Crowley from the Obama headquarters in Chicago on Tuesday evening, the correspondent could simultaneously appear in the New York studio—at least as a 3-D hologram. Really. >>

What to watch for as election returns come in
USAToday
Democrat Barack Obama said months ago that he intended to compete hard in states that Democratic presidential nominees haven't won in decades.

He's done so well at expanding the battleground that a dozen states could claim bragging rights as most dramatic or decisive in the race between Obama and Republican John McCain.

Some states, such as Ohio, Florida and Missouri, are perpetually under the microscope on election nights because neither party can count on winning them. >>

How to watch the election
New York Post

Can Obama win popular vote but lose election?
Yahoo!
It's a nightmare scenario for Democrats — their nominee Barack Obama winning the popular vote while Republican John McCain ekes out an Electoral College victory. Sure, McCain trails in every recent national poll. Sure, surveys show that Obama leads in the race to reach the requisite 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. >>

Election Anxiety: Nov. 4th Is Here! Now What?
Huffington Post
Today the vigil begins. The tension is building and just about everyone can feel it. Many are saying this is the most important election in decades.

The combination of a world at war economically, politically and on fields of combat has many people angry, fearful and demanding of change. The Democrats are campaigning on a theme of Change and the Republicans are sounding a similar call.

So what's up? If you are one of those who are angry, what should you do if the other side wins? >>

-RSKnopfJr

What a team

The team I work with knows that I blog. They sometimes bring me feedback from individuals who have read something I posted. There have even been moments where they have humored me and listened to political stories where my recitation tends to go on far too long.

They wanted to know if I would post their predictions for the election, and I told them I would. Here is what we think is going to happen...

FCPolitico: Obama 53%  McCain 45%  Obama wins electoral vote 353-185

Ben:  Obama 52%  McCain 46%

Zach:  Obama 49%  McCain 47%

Aaron:  "Resistance 2 will be far funner than Resistance 1. Unicorns are pretty."

What a team.

-RSKnopfJr

Update...

Joe:  Obama 60%  McCain 40%

Brad:  Obama 53%  McCain 47%

Another update...

Aaron now says McCain 50%  Obama 48%...and unicorns are still pretty.

Washington Redskins 17-1 Predicting Presidential Election

I heard this during Monday Night Football and thought it was interesting. I can't believe I have never come across this before. From FanYard...

U.S election results? Predicting the next President? What is this noise about the trend of the Washington Redskins in predicting U.S. Presidential election results? Pretty simple. Take the final home game of the Redskins before Election Day. If the Redskins win, the incumbent party stays in office. If the Redskins lose that final home game before election day, the incumbent party loses and the only other real political party in this democracy takes office.

How long has this been happening? Since 1936, when the Redskins were actually playing out of the Boston area as the Boston Redskins and their win over the Chicago Cardinals saw incumbent Franklin D. Roosevelt was re-elected as the Democratic President.

Since 1936, the Redskins final home game before Election Day had correctly predicted the winners of 17 straight elections until Dubya won in 2004, bucking the trend.

...read the full article here.

BTW, the score from last night's game: Steelers 23 - Redskins 6.

-RSKnopfJr