Flag City Politico

An early look at electoral math

With all of the attention given to the Democratic Presidential race the past several months, and the stories in the media, one might believe that we are going to see a landslide in this November's election. Remember, however, that the race for the Presidency is not a popularity contest...it is a race to get to 270 electoral votes.

With the strength of Obama and Clinton evident by the outstanding number of citizens voting in Democratic primaries and caucuses, the early focus by the media has been that the sheer numbers alone will give the nominee an insurmountable advantage later this year. But is this really what is going to happen?

Remember that McCain is known for his maverick nature, and that is an appeal to independent voters and moderates from both parties. Even though he had to proclaim his conservatism to hard-core GOPers, he is the nominee now and can make a move back toward the center. It is not a foregone conclusion that he will end up as a sacrificial elephant this year, and in head-to-head polls, he has been holding his own or besting the potential Democratic nominee.

National polls are meaningless this time of year, but it is fun to speculate. Even more so if someone has taken the time to poll voters in all states and show us how the electoral map is starting to take shape. You will see these types of graphics MANY MORE TIMES between now and November, but to start off, let's see what the good people across the USofA are telling SurveyUSA

click here for state-by-state poll results

click here for state-by-state poll results

Not much of a surprise, unless you are like me and believe that it could have been MUCH worse for McCain. While Obama and Clinton continue to go at it, McCain is out there raising money, crafting his message and getting ready for...well, we may not know for several months yet, but whomever it is, they better be ready for another close election because it looks like that is where we are headed.

-RSKnopfJr

He's Baa-aack!

With Michael Bloomberg dominating the headlines regarding his on-again/off-again interest in running for President as an Independent (doesn't look like that is going to happen if Obama and his campaign for change ends up beating Clinton), many people have forgotten about the man who has already 'been there' and 'done that'.

"In this corner, representing organized citizen power facing off against corporate power...the man putting together a ground force of citizens who are informed, committed, tenacious advocates for a just future...the candidate inviting you to join in a mass push back against the corporate powers that are dictating our future, heeeeeeerrrrre's.....Ralph Nader!!"

<blink>(applause)<blink>

With everyone concentrating on the race for the major party nominations, Nader has very quietly launched an exploratory committee (www.naderexplore08.org), and is seeking contributions. It is no coincidence that on an open Sunday with no primary/caucus coming up the following week, Nader is going to be headlining the 02-24-08 edition of NBC's Meet the Press. Who else thinks that the first question Tim Russert asks him is a foregone conclusion?

Oh yeah, when Nader announced he was running for President in 2004, he did it on Meet the Press. Have you ever had deja vu? ('Didn't you just ask me that?'  :-)  How about, 'No, but I can ask the chef'? - it is strange what seems funny when the Nyquil starts to kick in before bed).

If anyone doesn't think that a Nader campaign would not make a difference, remember Florida in 2000 - Nader got 96,837 votes. Remember by how many Bush won the state, and the election? It was 537. Remember how a Perot candidacy helped contribute to George HW Bush's loss to Clinton in 1992? Please, do not underestimate the power or third party and independent candidates.

Isn't it appropriate, however, that in this wacky year of political happenings, an Independent may have an opportunity to really have their voice heard and their agenda advanced? I am not saying that his chances are better than Obanton (I need to get that trademarked) or McCain...or even Bloomberg.

I'm just saying if ever there was a year (and the time in our history) for America to allow Nader (and others) to enter the national discussion, it is now. Sometimes those lone voices, calling for change in the wilderness, make a little more sense than we want to give them credit for (or allow ourselves to believe).

-RSKnopfJr

Presidential Endorsements IV

Sheet Metal Workers International Association (joining with the United Transportation Union) endorses HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON

The Sheet Metal Workers’ International Association today added our voices to those of our union brothers and sisters in the United Transportation Union (UTU) in making a SMART choice by announcing our joint support for Hillary Rodham Clinton as the next President of the United States.

More than 500 SMART members and their families clad in  golden ‘Hillary 2008’ t-shirts gathered at the SMWIA Local 88  union hall to show their rousing support of the endorsement.

According to General President Michael J. Sullivan:

"The SMART union candidate, Senator Hillary Clinton, knows that all working Americans and their families want new leadership and new thinking on both the domestic and international fronts.  She will bring to this high office the intelligence and common sense necessary to guide our nation to its destiny as a strong and compassionate society.

Hillary Clinton understands our issues.  She knows the importance of sound policies and programs and will deal fairly and intelligently in addressing the energy crisis, fair trade, affordable health care, funding college and technical education and training, and will protect retirement security."

read more here & here

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National Right to Life endorses FRED THOMPSON

Marking the first major endorsement by a national grassroots organization in the Republican presidential contest, National Right to Life, the nation’s largest pro-life organization representing pro-lifers in fifty state affiliates and more than 3,000 local chapters, today announced its endorsement of former Senator Fred Thompson for President of the United States.

"€œAs the first major grassroots organization to enter the Republican presidential race, National Right to Life is proud to endorse Fred Thompson," stated Wanda Franz, Ph.D., president of National Right to Life.  "Our endorsement is a testament to Senator Thompson’s long-standing pro-life record, his commitment to unborn children, and our belief in his ability to win."

read more here

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Chuck Norris endorses MIKE HUCKABEE

-RSKnopfJr

Match Game 2008

Before you get excited, I did not discover several lost tape stocks featuring Gene Rayburn, Brett Somers and Charles Nelson Reilly (although that would be pretty cool if I did).

Instead, I came across something interesting at USAToday; a match game where you answer questions about topical issues (you need to be honest when you respond), and you find out which of the Presidential candidates is a best match for you.

I took the test straight-up and these were my results...

Not really shocking, although I was surprised to see Giuliani so high. I thought Fred Thompson or John McCain would have been in the mix, but that is what makes this fun.

USAToday also provides another little feature where you can emphasize (by moving an arrow) the issues that matter to you. You can see what was important to me, and who came out on top...

Once again, not really shocking. Although, it was a little unusual to see Paul, Kucinich and Richardson as my next three.

So, who are in your top 3 (no - this is not a cellular commercial)? Go ahead and take the test, slide the arrows how you want, and see what happens. Share your top 3 in the comments section, and check back often to see what others put. It is a fun way to see how our personal beliefs and political convictions match up with the individuals running for President.

Warning: the results may disturb you.

-RSKnopfJr

Values Voter

Monday night the first ever Values Voter Presidential Debate/Straw Poll was held in in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Now, before you dismiss this as a fringe group, keep three things in mind...

1. Christian conservatives are a huge voting block that can sway election results
2. The straw poll participants were not selected by the candidates, but by national conservative leaders
3. A majority of Republican candidates showed up to participate

With that said, the top four candidates (Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, McCain) all skipped this event citing scheduling conflicts (even though Giuliani was in Florida on Monday, and Romney & Thompson were in Florida today). Their absence was noted:

“How can we expect these no-show candidates to take on Osama Bin Laden and other world leaders when they’re afraid to show up and answer questions from Phyllis Schlafly?”
Rabbi Aryeh Spero
Jewish Action Alliance

“If you care about our votes, you need to care about our values enough to show up.”
Rick Scarborough
President of Vision America

Mike Huckabee


So, who did the Values Voters respond to the best, and who did they select:

• Mike Huckabee - 64%
• Ron Paul - 12%
• Alan Keyes - 5%
• Sam Brownback - 5%
• Duncan Hunter - 4%
• Fred Thompson - 4%
• Tom Tancredo - 2%
• Rudy Giuliani - 1%
• John McCain - 1%
• John Cox - 1%
• Mitt Romney - 0%

A couple of interesting things.

1. Mike Huckabee is clearly resonating with conservative voters more than Sam Brownback (his main competition from Iowa)
2. Mitt Romney's percentage was not rounded down...he did not receive 1 vote
3. Ron Paul continues to gather support from little pockets of voters

Ron Paul


The big question to ask is, will this have any effect on how this block of voters acts during the primary season. According to Janet Folger, a member of the debate’s host committee and president of Faith 2 Action, believes so:

“They (the candidates who did not appear) have the mentality of, ‘Look, we’re going to get you guys anyway because you don’t have anywhere to go. What literally happened last night is values voters moved from the back of the bus to the driver’s seat. We’re now going to see a united front.”

According to the New York Times, she said that many Christian conservatives had been praying for a clear winner to emerge from the debate, which is what happened. As a result, she said, she will be casting her lot in now with Mr. Huckabee. “The values voters have spoken. It’s loud and clear. It’s unmistakable.”

-RSKnopfJr

Presidential Endorsements III

United Mine Workers of America endorses JOHN EDWARDS

The United Mine Workers of America (UMWA) announced today that it is endorsing former Senator John Edwards (D-N.C.) for President of the United States.

"Senator Edwards' positions on the issues of importance to UMWA members make him the best fit for UMWA members of all the candidates for President," UMWA International President Cecil E. Roberts said. "We are proud to support him and excited about the potential of an Edwards presidency for American working families.

"Senator Edwards believes, as we do, that the best way to rebuild America's middle class is to expand union membership, not shrink it," Roberts said. "He also believes, as we do, that the searing poverty that still grips many Americans is a stain on our great nation that must be eliminated.

read more here

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Transportation Communications Union endorses HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON

At a meeting of TCU’s Executive Council, International President Bob Scardelletti announced today that TCU has endorsed Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) for President of the United States.  The action was taken following a ‘Conversation with the Candidates’ forum at which a number of candidates appeared during the IAM national staff conference in Orlando, Florida, which TCU officers attended.

“This forum confirmed my belief that the best candidate for our members and all of labor is Hillary Clinton,” said Scardelletti. “She gives American workers the best opportunity to have a friend in the White House and an advocate pushing their issues.”

President Scardelletti urges all TCU members to get behind Senator Clinton and to work hard for her election.  He is encouraging all TCU members and their families to become active in their communities as campaigners for Hillary.

read more here

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United Steelworkers endorses JOHN EDWARDS

The United Steelworkers (USW) today endorsed Senator John Edwards as the Democratic nominee for President.

The USW, the nation’s largest private sector union, was joined in making its endorsement by the United Mineworkers of America (UMWA), giving Edwards the largest bloc of union support so far among the field of eight presidential candidates.

In making the announcement, USW President Leo W. Gerard said, “All of the Democratic candidates in the field share our values, and any one of them would be a major improvement over the current administration.

read more here

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Transport Workers Union of America endorses JOHN EDWARDS

The Transport Workers Union of America (TWU) today endorsed Senator John Edwards for president at the union’s international headquarters in New York City. Edwards was joined by TWU International President James C. Little, TWU Local 100 President Roger Toussaint, and rank and file members from early caucus and primary states for the announcement.

“I’m proud to stand in New York with members of the Transit Workers Union, who keep the city moving and help keep New Yorkers safe,” said Edwards. “The men and women of the TWU serve on the front lines of our country’s homeland security, protecting public transportation users, the nation’s railways, and skies. These are the workers who get us to our jobs and our families.

“For too long, these good union men and women and millions of other working families have been ignored by a broken system in Washington. I’m looking forward to campaigning with them in early primary states and key general election battleground states, and as president I’ll fight for them every day, so we can honor their hard work and make our transportation infrastructure safe and secure.”

read more here

-RSKnopfJr

Presidential Endorsements II

Another day, a few more endorsements...

International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers endorses Michael Huckabee and Hillary Clinton

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), one of the nation’s largest and most politically active trade unions, is endorsing New York Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton for President. The 700,000-member IAM also took the unusual step of endorsing a Republican candidate for the primaries, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

The decision to endorse a candidate for the Democratic and Republican primaries follows extensive polling of IAM members and a ‘Conversation with the Candidates’ event in Orlando, Florida, where candidates from both parties discussed their vision for the country and the role of the U.S. labor movement.

“Hillary Clinton earned the IAM’s endorsement by focusing on jobs, health care, education and trade – the bread and butter issues of the American middle class,” said IAM International President Tom Buffenbarger. “She is the only candidate of either party to come forward with a comprehensive manufacturing policy and the only candidate to connect with millions of Americans who feel invisible to the current administration.”Huckabee_9.jpg

Buffenbarger also praised the former Arkansas Republican Governor, who addressed the IAM National Staff Conference this week. “Mike Huckabee was the only Republican candidate with the guts to meet with our members and the only one willing to figure out where and how we might work together,” said Buffenbarger. “He is entitled to serious consideration from our members voting in the upcoming Republican primaries.”

read more here

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United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America endorses John Edwards

The United Brotherhood of Carpenters announced today that it will endorse Senator John Edwards in the Democratic Presidential Primary.

"Our endorsement is based on the Senator's outspoken support for all of organized labor and his focus on America's working families," said Carpenters President Douglas J. McCarron.

The Carpenters' early endorsement is unusual given that the union has made no endorsement in recent presidential primaries, and made no endorsement at all in the last presidential race.

Senator Edwards met with the union's executive board and 35 key leaders from throughout the United States last week in Las Vegas. They voted overwhelmingly to endorse Edwards following that meeting.

read more here
visit the UBC website here

If you're scoring at home, or even on the road...
DEM: Clinton - 2, Dodd - 1, Edwards - 1
REP: Huckabee - 1

-RSKnopfJr

Presidential Endorsements I

The first of many major Presidential endorsements have come out this week. One was expected...the other, a major surprise.

United Transportation Union endorses HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON

The United Transportation Union today (Aug. 28) became the first labor union in America to endorse Hillary Rodham Clinton for President of the United States.

“It is a high honor and a distinct privilege to be the first labor union in making this endorsement,” said UTU International President Paul Thompson. “The UTU has a long history of picking winners early. Hillary will be a president that America’s working families can count on. Time and again, as a United States senator, she has stood with us.

“The UTU intends to devote our considerable resources to encouraging our 125,000 active and retired members, their families, friends and neighbors to register to vote and cast ballots on Election Day 2008 for Hillary.”

read more here

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International Association of Fire Fighters endorses CHRISTOPHER DODD

A Message from the General President

We have a core political philosophy on which all of our political work hinges. We will support those who support us.

In the 2008 Presidential election, there are a number of candidates with solid records on fire fighter and working family issues. The proven, demonstrated ability to lead on those issues are what we weigh the most when deciding who will receive the considerable support and endorsement of our great union. These successes tell us what kind of leadership each candidate will offer as our President.

So we did the background work and looked at the candidates' records on fire fighter and working family issues. We saw which issues they have a history not just of supporting, but where they led the fight to change things for the better, and where they would in the future. And we examined the strengths each candidate would bring in a general election.

We listened to the candidates' words, hosted forums and printed them in our magazine.

We talked with our leaders and members across the country... and after all of that work, your IAFF Executive Board took that information, got together and found that one candidate out of all those running in both parties really stood head and shoulders above the rest when it came to support for fire fighters, for protecting our country and on issues that are important to our economy, our families and their quality of life.

That candidate is U.S. Senator Chris Dodd, and that's why your IAFF Executive Board voted unanimously today to endorse Senator Dodd for President of the United States.

read more here

-RSKnopfJr

The Man from Hope

Sure, Mitt Romney received the most votes at this week's Iowa Straw Poll, but that was expected. The biggest story to come out of Ames, however, was the surprise second-place finish of Mike Huckabee.

For those of you have regular FCPolitico readers, you know that I have (on more than one occasion) extolled the virtues of Huckabee, so it was a little satisfying to see him do so well. After the results were announced, you had the feeling that the press was going to pick up on this...and the reaction came fast and furious...

• Meet the Press - "T he Huckabee story is amazing for a couple of reasons. He didn't buy a single bus. ... The other thing is Huckabee actually had a negative ad run against him for this last week. The Club for Growth went after him. So here's somebody who didn't have any paid media up himself, had a negative ad criticizing him, and he finished second. It's a big deal. ... Huckabee may start inching up and saying, 'Hey, I belong in this first tier.'"
• Bloomberg - "He got more votes than he bought tickets, which is a rare thing in Iowa. You usually get what you pay for. Huckabee got more than that."
• Des Moines Register - "Governor Huckabee was arguably the biggest winner yesterday, because he did beat Sam Brownback, and the two of them were in a real contest for the hearts and minds of the social conservatives."

...and the candidate himself on Face the Nation...

"We're in fact in the first tier I think by everybody's estimation, and here's why. It wasn't just that we surprised people with a second showing. It's that we did it with so few resources. I mean, this really was feeding the 5,000 with two fish and five loaves. An amazing kind of day for us. Because if you look at how much money some of the candidate spent to get the votes they got, it's staggering. And we spent less than $100,000 on the straw poll.

If we add everything we did over the course of the last seven weeks in Iowa -- that includes paper clips and gasoline for the vehicles to get us from place to place -- our total expenses were $150,000. So when you look at what we were able to achieve, it was because people came to Ames to vote for us. And we had remarkable stories of people who came literally from all over America to work for us. And then people from Ames, one girl drove from Ames to Des Moines to get her driver's license because she forgot it, just so she could vote for me. I mean, it was a movement."

Still not convinced? Try these...

Easy style hits chord with Republicans
Strumming on his guitar, the presidential candidate from Hope, Arkansas knows informal southern manners go down well on the campaign trail. His easy way with people and self-deprecating humour helped to get him re-elected four times as governor of Arkansas.
Edward Luce
FT.com via MSNBC

Huckabee's Price of Admission: $100,000
Relishing his second-place finish in the Ames, Iowa straw poll on Saturday, Mike Huckabee yesterday noted that he managed to snare 18 percent of the vote despite investing much less in the event than his top rivals. "It wasn't just that we surprised people with a second showing, it's that we did it with so few resources," he said. "This really was feeding the 5,000 with two fish and five loaves."
Alec MacGillis
Washington Post

For a Joke-Telling Candidate, a Second-Place Finish
“I can’t buy you — I don’t have the money,” Mike Huckabee, the Arkansas Republican seeking the presidency, told Republicans at the Iowa Straw Poll this weekend. He offered a mock frown.
Adam Nagourney
New York Times

Analysis: Huckabee's 2nd-Place 'Win' in Ames
The biggest political event of the 2007 calendar year gave former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney a victory, but the biggest winner may well be former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who placed a surprising second.
Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post

Huckabee media whirl: Empathy for life 'at the bottom of the mountain'
Mike Huckabee has parlayed his surprise second-place finish in the Iowa Republican Party straw poll into at least eight national media appearances so far. One of his most interesting encounters was with Chris Mathews on MSNBC's Hardball.
Jill Lawrence
USA Today

Huckabee's Fifteen Minutes
After his second-place finish in the Iowa straw poll, Mike Huckabee emerged as the mainstream media's favorite conservative.
Maggie Gallagher
Yahoo!

So what's next? Does this move Huckabee to the top tier? Maybe not all the way, but he is definitely closer to replacing McCain than ever before. Huckabee has until he end of September to translate this success into an increase in fundraising.

Talk has also surfaced of Huckabee being a possible choice for VP. I think that the idea has merit, especially if Giuliani is the Republican nominee and needs a southerner (Arkansas) with executive experience (governor) and who is a pro-life (and can balance Rudy's position) conservative (to balance Rudy being a moderate). Stranger things have happened...and this election cycle, anything is possible.

-RSKnopfJr

photos courtesy of Mike Huckabee's campaign website

Spotlight on...Democratic Presidential Candidates

Rudy. Hillary. Obama. McCain. Mitt. Edwards. And let's not forget Fred Thompson.

Day after day, the media talks about these candidates, and chooses to ignore the other people running. Pretty soon, you are going to start hearing the term "threshold". Groups sponsoring debates will start limiting the candidates they invite unless they are at a certain level in the polls. Before they do, I encourage you to take a moment to see what these other candidates have to offer. They may surprise you.

Today, the spotlight is on...Democratic Presidential Candidates.

Joe Biden

Chris Dodd

Dennis Kucinich

Mike Gravel

Bill Richardson

-RSKnopfJr