Flag City Politico

History

After working hard and being out of town last work, I am quietly sitting here tonight watching history unfold before me. At 9:00pm this evening, Barack Obama securing the Presidential nomination of the Democratic Party is monumental; not only because he is African-American, but because of the way he did it. Being a young Senator from Illinois, Obama dared to take on the political establishment (i.e., Clintons) and wound up winning. It was an extremely close race, and Hillary Clinton came very close to being the first female nominee from a major party. In fact, three of the top four candidates from the Democratic Party were minorities.

I do not necessarily agree with Democratic values and beliefs, but I can appreciate - and even admire - an organization that embraces inclusion. It gives me hope and is something I can show my  daughters - the future is open to them. We have often talked during this long campaign about all the candidates, and they are fascinated with Obama. I have tried to be impartial, answering their questions honestly and with a minimum of spin or bias. It is interesting to see what they pick up from the news: Obama wants change, Clinton can't be trusted, and McCain is too old. When we start talking about specific issues, little matters - they just return to the impressions that have reinforced through the media. I wonder if this is how quite a few voters have formed their opinions as well.

The power and symbolism of this hour cannot be overstated. Obama has campaigned on a message of change, and his nomination signifies just such an attitude that people are embracing, Securing the Democratic bid is not only a beacon of hope to a subset of Americans that have struggled to achieve and maintain equality, it also signals a trans-formative and unifying moment for an entire nation seeking any ray of hope.

With that said, the next phase begins...and it is going to be a doozy. The elephant in the room is not the GOP - it is what the Obama campaign will now do with Clinton. Will he offer her the VP slot (something she stated for the first time today she would be open to), or is she angling for a retirement of campaign debt, a cabinet post or Supreme Court nomination? This decision will be Obama's next major test and will go a long way toward shoring up the negative feelings that have welled up during this political season.

Looking at the text for the speeches for McCain and Obama this evening, it is clear that the central tenant for both will be change - it just depends on what your definition of change is, and what kind of you are seeking for the next four years. If this comes down to an election of style over substance, and there is no reason to believe that it won't be (especially since seeing how Obama defeated Clinton), you have to think that Obama has more than a chance to be our next President. This will be discussed quite a bit over the next few months, but for now, we are down to the final two (although Nader and Burr would differ with that assessment). Next stop, VEEP-stakes.

-RSKnopfJr

Hardcore Republicans voting Democrat

'Hardcore' Republicans voting Democrat
The two precincts at Broad Ripple Family Center selected Republican Jon Elrod over Democrat Andre Carson in March's special election for U.S. Congress. But by 9 a.m., just 21 voters in one of those precincts had requested Republican ballots -- out of 168 cast. >>
The Indianapolis Star

Polls open in North Carolina
A heavy turnout was reported this morning at some polling places across North Carolina in the state's first significant presidential primary election in two decades. >>
The Charlotte Observer

Obama Expands Lead in NC; Dems Still Biting Nails in Indiana!
On the strength of good polling numbers on the final day before the primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina, Barack Obama of Illinois holds a convincing lead in North Carolina, but the race is simply too close to call in Indiana, the latest Zogby two-day telephone tracking poll shows. >>
Zogby International

Clinton campaign retools delegate math
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign yesterday tried to redefine the delegate math for securing the Democratic presidential nomination, signaling its willingness to wage a divisive battle with front-runner Sen. Barack Obama through the summer. >>
The Washington Times

Paul Campaign Never Ended
As the Democratic presidential candidates held pre-primary rallies yesterday in Indiana and North Carolina, and presumptive Republican nominee John McCain spoke to the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, another major-party presidential candidate continued his own quest for nomination, headlining a "Freedom Rally" on a Fort Wayne, Ind., university campus. >>
The Washington Post

-RSKnopfJr

Groundhog Day

Rise and shine campers...

Haven't we been here before, or does this political season just seem like the longest in history? It probably does, considering that candidates started running sooner, and the primaries started earlier than ever. You know the (not so) funny part? It still won't be over after today. Obama winning Indiana and/or North Carolina will not cause Clinton to end her campaign, and a win (or wins) by Clinton only strengthens her resolve and commitment to play this out until the convention.

Here's how the delegate count stands as we begin the day

The latest polls show both Clinton and Obama headed to victory today...

Indiana

North Carolina

numbers courtesy of Real Clear Politics

Candidates make pitch to party insiders
In back-to-back speeches before state Democratic activists in Indianapolis on Sunday night, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama each offered themselves as the candidate who can best deliver change to voters' paychecks, at gas pumps and to the power-brokers in Washington. >>
Indianapolis Star

Race for your vote
Candidates up and down the ballot started revving up their voter-turnout efforts Sunday, setting the stage for a bigger-than-ever N.C. primary finish. >>
The Charlotte Observer

Spin set, let the voting begin
In the run-up to Tuesday’s latest crucial set of primaries, Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton have both called themselves the “underdog.” But as they barrel into the biggest states left to vote, North Carolina and Indiana, polling and conventional wisdom have set clear expectations that belie that label.  >>
Politico

Check out the 'Democratic Delegate Calculator' from the New York Times so you can play along at home and see how far ahead Obama actually is. For example, if Clinton won 60% of the delegates in the remaining states (and that is NOT going to happen), Obama only needs to get 42% of the remaining superdelegates for the nomination (and considering he currently has the support of 48%, and has been exceeding even that number over the past two months), it shows how strong he is.

I'll check in later today, and be sure to check back tonight to find out who won, who lost, and how the spin is progressing.

-RSKnopfJr

Pennsylvania Primary Results

After a long, long, looooong six weeks, the winners are...

REPUBLICANS

JOHN McCAIN - 72%
MIKE HUCKABEE - 12%
RON PAUL - 16%


DEMOCRATS

HILLARY CLINTON - 54%
BARACK OBAMA - 46%

75% of precincts reporting - updated 04/22/08 10:30p

Peek at Pennsylvania

The early Pennsylvania exit polls that came out at 5pm...

Obama - 52%
Clinton - 48%

Key demographics...

Men
Obama 53%-47%

Women
Clinton 55%-44%

White
Clinton 60%-40%

Black
Obama 92%-8%

First estimates are that 52% of registered Democrats are making it to the polls (compared to 28% from 2004). It just continues the trend that this election is energizing people.

More from ABC News...

Negative Campaign Tarnishes Clinton, Obama
Despite all the down-to-the-wire campaigning, preliminary exit poll results indicate that nearly eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters made up their minds at least a week ago, and six in 10 decided on their candidate more than a month ago -- a higher number of early deciders than the norm in Democratic primaries to date. >>

The final polls showed Clinton winning PA by 6% (her internals have it at double-digits). We'll start to get an idea in less than an hour.

-RSKnopfJr

What...me worry?

One week from tonight is the Pennsylvania. There has already been quite a bit of stories about Clinton and Obama over the past few weeks as the media tries to find something to fill their columns and air time, so thank goodness the primary is right around the corner.

Just so we are all on the same page moving forward, here is how the two candidates stand coming in to this next contest:

 

The latest polling from Pennsylvania still shows Clinton maintaining her lead, staying between 5-9% in the latest polls. Obama wants to get past next week without receiving too much damage (or having Clinton narrow the lead much), before he heads into North Carolina and what still looks like the next win he can put into his column.

---

Whether it was intentional or not, shouldn't the chairman of the Associated Press be the last person to make a mistake like this?

For Obama and McCain, the Bitter and the Sweet
So much for the liberal media. John McCain and Barack Obama both appeared before the nation's newspaper editors yesterday. The putative Republican presidential nominee was given a box of doughnuts and a standing ovation. The likely Democratic nominee was likened to a terrorist. >>
Dana Milbank
Washington Post

---

In case you missed it, Stephen Colbert is in Pennsylvania this week.

Colbert reports at Penn
The Colbert Nation has become the Colbert Campus, as Stephen Colbert, the Emmy award-winning comedy host, has descended upon Penn's Zellerbach Theatre for the week. >>
Colin Kavanaugh
The Daily Pennsylvanian

---

And finally, from the "Who called this one first?" department. One of the headlines straight from the pages of TheCourier.com today - RiverPlace? Developer, lawyers aren't talking. I'm glad everything about this was settled months ago. Instead of the city seal, the council chamber should hang up a poster of Alfred E. Neuman with the words 'What...me worry?"

-RSKnopfJr

Patterns?

Let's see if you find a pattern with the following...

Obama Raises More than $40 Million
The Obama campaign has issued a press release saying it raised more than $40 million in March. This amount is less than the $55 million it raised it February -- but it's still a significant haul. >>
MSNBC

Hillary Raises $20 Million in March
The AP is reporting -- and First Read has confirmed with a campaign source -- that Clinton raised $20 million in March, about half of Obama's haul for the month. Still, as the AP notes, it is Clinton's second-best monthly performance. >>
MSNBC

Obama close to Bush record
The "over $40 million" the Obama campaign says it raised in March would put the total contributions the Illinois senator has raised in his presidential campaign at approximately $234 million — enough to surpass both the $200 million mark as well as the $215 million that 2004 presidential nominee John Kerry raised for that presidential primary season (then the Democratic record). >>
CNN

Jane Fonda: 'Obama!'
Jane Fonda, the actress and ardent anti-Vietnam war advocate who visited North Vietnam during those hostilities, has endorsed Democrat Barack Obama for president. >>
Chicago Tribune

Carter Hints at Support for Obama
Former President Carter wouldn't quite say it, but he left little doubt this week about who he'd like to see in the White House next year. >>
Breitbart

Why the Democratic race could end in North Carolina
The end could be near. Or the endgame, at least, of a surprisingly drawn-out Democratic presidential contest. Four months and 42 states after the opening Iowa caucuses, the primary in North Carolina on May 6 now looms as a pivotal final showdown between Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. >>
USAToday

Speaking of North Carolina, here is a look at the latest polling that shows Obama slowly pulling away...

Not to worry Clinton-backers - here are the numbers from Pennsylvania that show Clinton maintaining her lead (once again, see if you can find the trend - here's a hint, in a March 16 poll, Clinton led 56-30)...

Some good news, however, for the Clinton campaign...

DNC stance surprises campaigns
The Democratic National Committee said Tuesday that Florida and Michigan members will be seated on the three standing committees — including the critical Credentials Committee—at the party’s 2008 national convention, a position that could affect the selection of the Democratic nominee. >>
Politico

Just when things are looking up, something always happens...

Clinton Denies Saying Obama 'Cannot Win'
ABC News Eloise Harper Reports: Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., denies she told Governor Bill Richardson, D-N.M., that her Democratic nomination rival, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., "cannot win" a general election against presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. >>
ABC News

At least one thing about this election is certain...

John Edwards says would not accept VP nomination
Former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards said on Thursday he would not accept the nomination for U.S. vice president as he did four years ago. >>
Reuters

-RSKnopfJr

A Busy Day

It's difficult to decide on the day's biggest news story...

The day started off with news out of Florida that the Democratic Party decided not to hold any sort of vote. Later in the day, word out of Michigan was that the legislation to have another primary did not have enough support and would not pass. Perhaps the biggest story, however, was the 'race' speech that Barack Obama delivered from Constitution Hall in Philadelphia.

Florida Democrats scrap revote idea
Setting the stage for a contentious fight well into the summer, Florida Democrats gave up Monday on redoing their Jan. 29 presidential primary, leaving it to the national party or rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to hammer out a solution to make the state's delegates count. >>
Miami Herald

Democratic state leader calls repeat primary in Michigan 'unlikely'
A Senate Democratic leader said today "it's highly unlikely" the Legislature will pass a do-over Democratic presidential primary election bill.  >>
Detroit News

Neither result surprised me all that much, and in a certain way, I am happy that this has happened. Not because it may hurt Democrats or teach the two states a lesson about being greedy, but because it takes growing pains sometimes to get to the results we need and deserve.

By going through these problems in 2008, we finally see the pitfalls and ramifications of states jostling for recognition and influence. Hopefully, both parties will see this as a wake-up call and put a plan in motion that will alleviate this problem for the next Presidential election cycle.

Whether there are regional primaries, or a national primary, or the start of some sort of rotation every four years, something needs to be done by 2012 so voters do not feel disenfranchised. In a year where record numbers are turning out, we ought to be finding a way to keep the excitement going and continue the momentum.

While voters in Michigan and Florida were wondering what this all means (or even if they were paying attention), Obama was in Pennsylvania trying to address the issue of race (and more importantly, do some damage control from the relationship with his pastor). In case you missed it, here is the speech (text).

Results from commentators were extremely positive and supportive, and you saw the skill Obama possesses in delivering what some called the most important speech of his political career. If that was the case, this may have been the speech that secured him the nomination.

He has the lead in pledged delegates, is closing in on super-delegates, still holds the advantage in popular vote and states won. With all eyes on him, he gave a speech which shows his command (and the importance) of rhetoric.

In a nation that is tired from a never-ending war, and an economy most certainly in a recession, any sort of hope and relief on the horizon is welcome news, and a theme that may carry Obama to the Presidency.

-RSKnopfJr

Junior Tuesday Results

A huge win for Michael Heldman tonight - anytime you get over 75% of the vote, especially against a well known opponent, you are doing something right. This might give Heldman some clout (or at least garner some public support) when it comes time to talk budget with the commissioners, discussing a jail expansion or the possibility of another temporary justice center tax.

Stephen Oman has now lost three commissioners races in a row, but you have to wonder what would have happened if Bradley Griffin wasn't running. Was there some sort of anti-Walton sentiment that was muted by Griffin's presence? Considering Walton did not receive a majority of the votes, it was not exactly a ringing endorsement of someone who has the credentials but may not be communicating effectively with the electorate.

Besides the Hancock Park levy passing so handily, there were not many other surprises, although the number of votes for Democratic Presidential delegates did pique my interest. I wonder if this was due to the mobilization of Democratic voters, or the call to arms by political commentators like Rush Limbaugh urging GOPers to vote for Clinton. I hope it was the former, because the other goes against the principles I value.

On the national level, two things to bring out of what happened tonight:

1. McCain is now the Republican nominee and will do everything he can to start raising money and set the political agenda while the Democrats settle on a nominee over the next three months (or longer)
2. The race to become the Democratic nominee, despite Clinton winning three of four states tonight, barely changed from where we began the day...Obama is still in the lead, and when all the votes are counted, he may even come out earning more delegates for today's trouble. Nice system they implemented, huh?

It was great to finally see Ohio play a small part in Presidential primary politics; let's just hope we come up with some system for 2012 that is fair to every state and eliminates all the bickering and issues we have seen this cycle. Anyway, it is quickly approaching 1:30a. If Chris Matthews and Keith Olberman have had enough and are turning the anchor desk over to Norah O'Donnell, it must be time to go to bed.

Registered Voters 51695 - Cards Cast 21109 40.83%   
Num. Report Precinct 63 - Num. Reporting 63 100.00%

DEM DEL AND ALT NATL CONV
HILLARY CLINTON - 55.53%
JOHN EDWARDS - 1.43%
BARACK OBAMA - 43.04%

DEM STATE COMM MAN
CHARLES R. GRAY - 48.78%
DONALD L. TRAXLER - 51.22%

REP DEL AND ALT LARGE NATL CONV
MIKE HUCKABEE - 31.72%
JOHN MCCAIN - 55.29%
RON PAUL - 7.65%
MITT ROMNEY - 3.58%
FRED THOMPSON - 1.77%

REP COUNTY COMMISSIONER 1-2-09
EDWARD D. INGOLD - 54.24%
ROBERT J. KUHLMAN - 45.76%

REP COUNTY COMMISSIONER 1-3-09
BRADLEY L. GRIFFIN - 14.48%
STEPHEN F. OMAN - 37.27%
EMILY A. WALTON - 48.24%

REP SHERIFF
MICHAEL E. HELDMAN - 78.25%
THOMAS L. RENNINGER - 21.75%

REP COUNTY TREASURER
CARL MOSES - 7.98%
LARRY SETTLEMIRE - 17.44%
J. STEVE WELTON - 74.58%

REP CORONER
MARK R. FOX - 58.68%
JOHN P. ZIEGLER - 41.32%

ARCADIA TAX LEVY
FOR THE TAX LEVY - 52.45%
AGAINST THE TAX LEVY - 47.55%

MCCOMB BOND ISSUE
FOR THE BOND ISSUE - 47.92%
AGAINST BOND ISSUE - 52.08%

NORTH BALTIMORE TAX LEVY
FOR THE TAX LEVY - 100.00%
AGAINST THE TAX LEVY - 0.00%

VAN BUREN TAX LEVY
FOR THE TAX LEVY - 53.75%
AGAINST THE TAX LEVY - 46.25%

HANCOCK PARK DISTRICT TAX LEVY
FOR THE TAX LEVY - 65.81%
AGAINST THE TAX LEVY - 34.19%

 

Results from the Texas Democratic Caucus have not yet been announced.

updated 1:30a  03-05-08

-RSKnopfJr

Crunching the Numbers

I hope you're ready for some television commercials from the Presidential candidates (especially Democrat), because Ohio and our March 4 primary are definitely on everyone's calendar. I did some quick math last night, and it appears that both parties nominees could be locked up on Decision Tuesday (that's the name I am giving to the March 4 primaries...if you have a better suggestion, leave a comment).

McCain has 720 delegates out of the 1191 he needs for the nomination. Even if he runs the table for the rest of February, he will still only be at 1005. With only two of the upcoming contests being winner take all (w), RHP (RomneyHuckabeePaul) have an opportunity to sneak a few delegates into their column.

On Decision Tuesday, McCain could secure the nomination because of the four states that day

• Ohio - 88 delegates
• Rhode Island - 20 delegates
• Texas - 140 delegates
• Vermont - 17 delegates (w)

On the Democratic side, things are the same...yet different. Clinton has 1056 delegates out of the 2025 she needs for the nomination. Even is she runs the table for the rest of February, she will still only be at 1643. We know that there is no possibility of her getting every delegate in the contests between now and March, but agree to suspend reality for a moment.

On Decision Tuesday, Clinton could secure the nomination because of the four states that day

• Ohio - 161 delegates
• Rhode Island - 32 delegates
• Texas - 228 delegates
• Vermont - 23 delegates

Looking ahead, let's be more realistic and say that Clinton and Obama split delegates for the time being. After the 4th, there are two small contests remaining in March (Wyoming, Mississippi), and then the only one in April is Pennsylvania with 188 delegates. IF things are not settled by then, there are five contests in May and two in June...and then..and then...to the convention in Denver (admit it, you would love to see it come to that).

No matter whether clinching on the 4th is practical (McCain), or if there is a fierce contest for delegates (Clinton/Obama), Ohio is going to receiver a fair amount of attention over the next three weeks. Don't say I didn't warn you.

- - - - -

Some of the biggest news after Tuesday came from, once again, the Democrats...

Hillary Clinton will go for broke
Hillary Rodham Clinton personally lent her cash-strapped campaign $5 million late last month, and some top staffers are now going without pay, officials acknowledged yesterday. >>>
New York Post

Obama on pace to raise $30 mil in Feb
Barack Obama’s campaign is on track to raise another $30 million in February, sources close to the Illinois senator say, while Hillary Rodham Clinton’s spokesman revealed Wednesday that she had loaned her campaign $5 million. >>>
Politico

Democratic dead-heat 'not good news' says Dean
Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean on Wednesday voiced concern over the prospect of a brokered convention at the end of the party's White House nominating contests. >>>
Breitbart

Dem caucuses in Michigan, Florida suggested
The increasing possibility of a divisive battle over whether to seat Michigan's delegation to the Democratic National Convention has party officials looking for a compromise. >>>
The Detroit News

- - - - -

I hope that you're staying dry. Keep smilin'!  :-)

-RSKnopfJr