Flag City Politico

Hardcore Republicans voting Democrat

'Hardcore' Republicans voting Democrat
The two precincts at Broad Ripple Family Center selected Republican Jon Elrod over Democrat Andre Carson in March's special election for U.S. Congress. But by 9 a.m., just 21 voters in one of those precincts had requested Republican ballots -- out of 168 cast. >>
The Indianapolis Star

Polls open in North Carolina
A heavy turnout was reported this morning at some polling places across North Carolina in the state's first significant presidential primary election in two decades. >>
The Charlotte Observer

Obama Expands Lead in NC; Dems Still Biting Nails in Indiana!
On the strength of good polling numbers on the final day before the primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina, Barack Obama of Illinois holds a convincing lead in North Carolina, but the race is simply too close to call in Indiana, the latest Zogby two-day telephone tracking poll shows. >>
Zogby International

Clinton campaign retools delegate math
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign yesterday tried to redefine the delegate math for securing the Democratic presidential nomination, signaling its willingness to wage a divisive battle with front-runner Sen. Barack Obama through the summer. >>
The Washington Times

Paul Campaign Never Ended
As the Democratic presidential candidates held pre-primary rallies yesterday in Indiana and North Carolina, and presumptive Republican nominee John McCain spoke to the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, another major-party presidential candidate continued his own quest for nomination, headlining a "Freedom Rally" on a Fort Wayne, Ind., university campus. >>
The Washington Post

-RSKnopfJr

Groundhog Day

Rise and shine campers...

Haven't we been here before, or does this political season just seem like the longest in history? It probably does, considering that candidates started running sooner, and the primaries started earlier than ever. You know the (not so) funny part? It still won't be over after today. Obama winning Indiana and/or North Carolina will not cause Clinton to end her campaign, and a win (or wins) by Clinton only strengthens her resolve and commitment to play this out until the convention.

Here's how the delegate count stands as we begin the day

The latest polls show both Clinton and Obama headed to victory today...

Indiana

North Carolina

numbers courtesy of Real Clear Politics

Candidates make pitch to party insiders
In back-to-back speeches before state Democratic activists in Indianapolis on Sunday night, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama each offered themselves as the candidate who can best deliver change to voters' paychecks, at gas pumps and to the power-brokers in Washington. >>
Indianapolis Star

Race for your vote
Candidates up and down the ballot started revving up their voter-turnout efforts Sunday, setting the stage for a bigger-than-ever N.C. primary finish. >>
The Charlotte Observer

Spin set, let the voting begin
In the run-up to Tuesday’s latest crucial set of primaries, Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton have both called themselves the “underdog.” But as they barrel into the biggest states left to vote, North Carolina and Indiana, polling and conventional wisdom have set clear expectations that belie that label.  >>
Politico

Check out the 'Democratic Delegate Calculator' from the New York Times so you can play along at home and see how far ahead Obama actually is. For example, if Clinton won 60% of the delegates in the remaining states (and that is NOT going to happen), Obama only needs to get 42% of the remaining superdelegates for the nomination (and considering he currently has the support of 48%, and has been exceeding even that number over the past two months), it shows how strong he is.

I'll check in later today, and be sure to check back tonight to find out who won, who lost, and how the spin is progressing.

-RSKnopfJr

Pennsylvania Primary Results

After a long, long, looooong six weeks, the winners are...

REPUBLICANS

JOHN McCAIN - 72%
MIKE HUCKABEE - 12%
RON PAUL - 16%


DEMOCRATS

HILLARY CLINTON - 54%
BARACK OBAMA - 46%

75% of precincts reporting - updated 04/22/08 10:30p

Peek at Pennsylvania

The early Pennsylvania exit polls that came out at 5pm...

Obama - 52%
Clinton - 48%

Key demographics...

Men
Obama 53%-47%

Women
Clinton 55%-44%

White
Clinton 60%-40%

Black
Obama 92%-8%

First estimates are that 52% of registered Democrats are making it to the polls (compared to 28% from 2004). It just continues the trend that this election is energizing people.

More from ABC News...

Negative Campaign Tarnishes Clinton, Obama
Despite all the down-to-the-wire campaigning, preliminary exit poll results indicate that nearly eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters made up their minds at least a week ago, and six in 10 decided on their candidate more than a month ago -- a higher number of early deciders than the norm in Democratic primaries to date. >>

The final polls showed Clinton winning PA by 6% (her internals have it at double-digits). We'll start to get an idea in less than an hour.

-RSKnopfJr

What...me worry?

One week from tonight is the Pennsylvania. There has already been quite a bit of stories about Clinton and Obama over the past few weeks as the media tries to find something to fill their columns and air time, so thank goodness the primary is right around the corner.

Just so we are all on the same page moving forward, here is how the two candidates stand coming in to this next contest:

 

The latest polling from Pennsylvania still shows Clinton maintaining her lead, staying between 5-9% in the latest polls. Obama wants to get past next week without receiving too much damage (or having Clinton narrow the lead much), before he heads into North Carolina and what still looks like the next win he can put into his column.

---

Whether it was intentional or not, shouldn't the chairman of the Associated Press be the last person to make a mistake like this?

For Obama and McCain, the Bitter and the Sweet
So much for the liberal media. John McCain and Barack Obama both appeared before the nation's newspaper editors yesterday. The putative Republican presidential nominee was given a box of doughnuts and a standing ovation. The likely Democratic nominee was likened to a terrorist. >>
Dana Milbank
Washington Post

---

In case you missed it, Stephen Colbert is in Pennsylvania this week.

Colbert reports at Penn
The Colbert Nation has become the Colbert Campus, as Stephen Colbert, the Emmy award-winning comedy host, has descended upon Penn's Zellerbach Theatre for the week. >>
Colin Kavanaugh
The Daily Pennsylvanian

---

And finally, from the "Who called this one first?" department. One of the headlines straight from the pages of TheCourier.com today - RiverPlace? Developer, lawyers aren't talking. I'm glad everything about this was settled months ago. Instead of the city seal, the council chamber should hang up a poster of Alfred E. Neuman with the words 'What...me worry?"

-RSKnopfJr

Patterns?

Let's see if you find a pattern with the following...

Obama Raises More than $40 Million
The Obama campaign has issued a press release saying it raised more than $40 million in March. This amount is less than the $55 million it raised it February -- but it's still a significant haul. >>
MSNBC

Hillary Raises $20 Million in March
The AP is reporting -- and First Read has confirmed with a campaign source -- that Clinton raised $20 million in March, about half of Obama's haul for the month. Still, as the AP notes, it is Clinton's second-best monthly performance. >>
MSNBC

Obama close to Bush record
The "over $40 million" the Obama campaign says it raised in March would put the total contributions the Illinois senator has raised in his presidential campaign at approximately $234 million — enough to surpass both the $200 million mark as well as the $215 million that 2004 presidential nominee John Kerry raised for that presidential primary season (then the Democratic record). >>
CNN

Jane Fonda: 'Obama!'
Jane Fonda, the actress and ardent anti-Vietnam war advocate who visited North Vietnam during those hostilities, has endorsed Democrat Barack Obama for president. >>
Chicago Tribune

Carter Hints at Support for Obama
Former President Carter wouldn't quite say it, but he left little doubt this week about who he'd like to see in the White House next year. >>
Breitbart

Why the Democratic race could end in North Carolina
The end could be near. Or the endgame, at least, of a surprisingly drawn-out Democratic presidential contest. Four months and 42 states after the opening Iowa caucuses, the primary in North Carolina on May 6 now looms as a pivotal final showdown between Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. >>
USAToday

Speaking of North Carolina, here is a look at the latest polling that shows Obama slowly pulling away...

Not to worry Clinton-backers - here are the numbers from Pennsylvania that show Clinton maintaining her lead (once again, see if you can find the trend - here's a hint, in a March 16 poll, Clinton led 56-30)...

Some good news, however, for the Clinton campaign...

DNC stance surprises campaigns
The Democratic National Committee said Tuesday that Florida and Michigan members will be seated on the three standing committees — including the critical Credentials Committee—at the party’s 2008 national convention, a position that could affect the selection of the Democratic nominee. >>
Politico

Just when things are looking up, something always happens...

Clinton Denies Saying Obama 'Cannot Win'
ABC News Eloise Harper Reports: Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., denies she told Governor Bill Richardson, D-N.M., that her Democratic nomination rival, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., "cannot win" a general election against presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. >>
ABC News

At least one thing about this election is certain...

John Edwards says would not accept VP nomination
Former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards said on Thursday he would not accept the nomination for U.S. vice president as he did four years ago. >>
Reuters

-RSKnopfJr

A Busy Day

It's difficult to decide on the day's biggest news story...

The day started off with news out of Florida that the Democratic Party decided not to hold any sort of vote. Later in the day, word out of Michigan was that the legislation to have another primary did not have enough support and would not pass. Perhaps the biggest story, however, was the 'race' speech that Barack Obama delivered from Constitution Hall in Philadelphia.

Florida Democrats scrap revote idea
Setting the stage for a contentious fight well into the summer, Florida Democrats gave up Monday on redoing their Jan. 29 presidential primary, leaving it to the national party or rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to hammer out a solution to make the state's delegates count. >>
Miami Herald

Democratic state leader calls repeat primary in Michigan 'unlikely'
A Senate Democratic leader said today "it's highly unlikely" the Legislature will pass a do-over Democratic presidential primary election bill.  >>
Detroit News

Neither result surprised me all that much, and in a certain way, I am happy that this has happened. Not because it may hurt Democrats or teach the two states a lesson about being greedy, but because it takes growing pains sometimes to get to the results we need and deserve.

By going through these problems in 2008, we finally see the pitfalls and ramifications of states jostling for recognition and influence. Hopefully, both parties will see this as a wake-up call and put a plan in motion that will alleviate this problem for the next Presidential election cycle.

Whether there are regional primaries, or a national primary, or the start of some sort of rotation every four years, something needs to be done by 2012 so voters do not feel disenfranchised. In a year where record numbers are turning out, we ought to be finding a way to keep the excitement going and continue the momentum.

While voters in Michigan and Florida were wondering what this all means (or even if they were paying attention), Obama was in Pennsylvania trying to address the issue of race (and more importantly, do some damage control from the relationship with his pastor). In case you missed it, here is the speech (text).

Results from commentators were extremely positive and supportive, and you saw the skill Obama possesses in delivering what some called the most important speech of his political career. If that was the case, this may have been the speech that secured him the nomination.

He has the lead in pledged delegates, is closing in on super-delegates, still holds the advantage in popular vote and states won. With all eyes on him, he gave a speech which shows his command (and the importance) of rhetoric.

In a nation that is tired from a never-ending war, and an economy most certainly in a recession, any sort of hope and relief on the horizon is welcome news, and a theme that may carry Obama to the Presidency.

-RSKnopfJr

Junior Tuesday Results

A huge win for Michael Heldman tonight - anytime you get over 75% of the vote, especially against a well known opponent, you are doing something right. This might give Heldman some clout (or at least garner some public support) when it comes time to talk budget with the commissioners, discussing a jail expansion or the possibility of another temporary justice center tax.

Stephen Oman has now lost three commissioners races in a row, but you have to wonder what would have happened if Bradley Griffin wasn't running. Was there some sort of anti-Walton sentiment that was muted by Griffin's presence? Considering Walton did not receive a majority of the votes, it was not exactly a ringing endorsement of someone who has the credentials but may not be communicating effectively with the electorate.

Besides the Hancock Park levy passing so handily, there were not many other surprises, although the number of votes for Democratic Presidential delegates did pique my interest. I wonder if this was due to the mobilization of Democratic voters, or the call to arms by political commentators like Rush Limbaugh urging GOPers to vote for Clinton. I hope it was the former, because the other goes against the principles I value.

On the national level, two things to bring out of what happened tonight:

1. McCain is now the Republican nominee and will do everything he can to start raising money and set the political agenda while the Democrats settle on a nominee over the next three months (or longer)
2. The race to become the Democratic nominee, despite Clinton winning three of four states tonight, barely changed from where we began the day...Obama is still in the lead, and when all the votes are counted, he may even come out earning more delegates for today's trouble. Nice system they implemented, huh?

It was great to finally see Ohio play a small part in Presidential primary politics; let's just hope we come up with some system for 2012 that is fair to every state and eliminates all the bickering and issues we have seen this cycle. Anyway, it is quickly approaching 1:30a. If Chris Matthews and Keith Olberman have had enough and are turning the anchor desk over to Norah O'Donnell, it must be time to go to bed.

Registered Voters 51695 - Cards Cast 21109 40.83%   
Num. Report Precinct 63 - Num. Reporting 63 100.00%

DEM DEL AND ALT NATL CONV
HILLARY CLINTON - 55.53%
JOHN EDWARDS - 1.43%
BARACK OBAMA - 43.04%

DEM STATE COMM MAN
CHARLES R. GRAY - 48.78%
DONALD L. TRAXLER - 51.22%

REP DEL AND ALT LARGE NATL CONV
MIKE HUCKABEE - 31.72%
JOHN MCCAIN - 55.29%
RON PAUL - 7.65%
MITT ROMNEY - 3.58%
FRED THOMPSON - 1.77%

REP COUNTY COMMISSIONER 1-2-09
EDWARD D. INGOLD - 54.24%
ROBERT J. KUHLMAN - 45.76%

REP COUNTY COMMISSIONER 1-3-09
BRADLEY L. GRIFFIN - 14.48%
STEPHEN F. OMAN - 37.27%
EMILY A. WALTON - 48.24%

REP SHERIFF
MICHAEL E. HELDMAN - 78.25%
THOMAS L. RENNINGER - 21.75%

REP COUNTY TREASURER
CARL MOSES - 7.98%
LARRY SETTLEMIRE - 17.44%
J. STEVE WELTON - 74.58%

REP CORONER
MARK R. FOX - 58.68%
JOHN P. ZIEGLER - 41.32%

ARCADIA TAX LEVY
FOR THE TAX LEVY - 52.45%
AGAINST THE TAX LEVY - 47.55%

MCCOMB BOND ISSUE
FOR THE BOND ISSUE - 47.92%
AGAINST BOND ISSUE - 52.08%

NORTH BALTIMORE TAX LEVY
FOR THE TAX LEVY - 100.00%
AGAINST THE TAX LEVY - 0.00%

VAN BUREN TAX LEVY
FOR THE TAX LEVY - 53.75%
AGAINST THE TAX LEVY - 46.25%

HANCOCK PARK DISTRICT TAX LEVY
FOR THE TAX LEVY - 65.81%
AGAINST THE TAX LEVY - 34.19%

 

Results from the Texas Democratic Caucus have not yet been announced.

updated 1:30a  03-05-08

-RSKnopfJr

Crunching the Numbers

I hope you're ready for some television commercials from the Presidential candidates (especially Democrat), because Ohio and our March 4 primary are definitely on everyone's calendar. I did some quick math last night, and it appears that both parties nominees could be locked up on Decision Tuesday (that's the name I am giving to the March 4 primaries...if you have a better suggestion, leave a comment).

McCain has 720 delegates out of the 1191 he needs for the nomination. Even if he runs the table for the rest of February, he will still only be at 1005. With only two of the upcoming contests being winner take all (w), RHP (RomneyHuckabeePaul) have an opportunity to sneak a few delegates into their column.

On Decision Tuesday, McCain could secure the nomination because of the four states that day

• Ohio - 88 delegates
• Rhode Island - 20 delegates
• Texas - 140 delegates
• Vermont - 17 delegates (w)

On the Democratic side, things are the same...yet different. Clinton has 1056 delegates out of the 2025 she needs for the nomination. Even is she runs the table for the rest of February, she will still only be at 1643. We know that there is no possibility of her getting every delegate in the contests between now and March, but agree to suspend reality for a moment.

On Decision Tuesday, Clinton could secure the nomination because of the four states that day

• Ohio - 161 delegates
• Rhode Island - 32 delegates
• Texas - 228 delegates
• Vermont - 23 delegates

Looking ahead, let's be more realistic and say that Clinton and Obama split delegates for the time being. After the 4th, there are two small contests remaining in March (Wyoming, Mississippi), and then the only one in April is Pennsylvania with 188 delegates. IF things are not settled by then, there are five contests in May and two in June...and then..and then...to the convention in Denver (admit it, you would love to see it come to that).

No matter whether clinching on the 4th is practical (McCain), or if there is a fierce contest for delegates (Clinton/Obama), Ohio is going to receiver a fair amount of attention over the next three weeks. Don't say I didn't warn you.

- - - - -

Some of the biggest news after Tuesday came from, once again, the Democrats...

Hillary Clinton will go for broke
Hillary Rodham Clinton personally lent her cash-strapped campaign $5 million late last month, and some top staffers are now going without pay, officials acknowledged yesterday. >>>
New York Post

Obama on pace to raise $30 mil in Feb
Barack Obama’s campaign is on track to raise another $30 million in February, sources close to the Illinois senator say, while Hillary Rodham Clinton’s spokesman revealed Wednesday that she had loaned her campaign $5 million. >>>
Politico

Democratic dead-heat 'not good news' says Dean
Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean on Wednesday voiced concern over the prospect of a brokered convention at the end of the party's White House nominating contests. >>>
Breitbart

Dem caucuses in Michigan, Florida suggested
The increasing possibility of a divisive battle over whether to seat Michigan's delegation to the Democratic National Convention has party officials looking for a compromise. >>>
The Detroit News

- - - - -

I hope that you're staying dry. Keep smilin'!  :-)

-RSKnopfJr

Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Tuesday Results

updated 02/06/08 2:00a

What a night! In such an unpredictable political season, what we saw this evening (and early this morning) was just as exciting as the college football season we just experienced.

There will be more time later today to discuss the results, and a look at how the delegate race shakes out. New Mexico (D) and Alaska (R) have still not been called, but it is late and I need to get some sleep. With everything going on today, and the historical ramifications of what happened, here's a little something to think about as you lay your head down on your pillow tonight...

Both Clinton and Obama can claim momentum out of tonight. Obama won more states, but Clinton won the big states of California and New York. A quick look at the delegates shows that things are almost even, and the fight now continues on to the next round of states this weekend.

For the GOP, despite not running away and winning convincingly, McCain won enough to start distancing himself from Romney and Huckabee in the delegate count. With so many winner-take-all contests, McCain won the right ones (i.e., New York, New Jersey, Missouri) and is now building a commanding lead.

Huckabee is developing into a serious contender for the Republican VP slot. With doing so well in the 'Bible Belt' states, Huckabee is presenting himself as the strong conservative ally that McCain is probably going to need to shore up the Republican base that he will need in November if he is the nominee.

Does Romney continue on? Winning six states tonight, I think he will...but he really needed to do well in California, and not winning there really hurt his chances to stop the 'Straight Talk Express'. We will discuss this more over the next few days, but for now, it is time to get some sleep and dream of how cool it would be if both races came down to the convention.

Until tomorrow...er, I mean later today...

-RSKnopfJr

Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Tuesday

24 states...1 day!

No, today is not the next version of 'The Amazing Race', it is the political version of 'Survivor'. LOL!

Clinton and McCain look to take commanding leads in delegates, but Obama and Romney/Huckabee are not going to go away that easily. Obama has come so close to Clinton in the national polls, they are virtually tied. And despite the win in Florida and endorsements from Giuliani and Schwarzenegger, he has not wrapped up the Republican nomination...yet.

So, what do we look for today? Honestly, no one knows. This is the largest one-day primary in our electoral history, so all bets are off when it comes to predicting. It wouldn't matter anyway, because no one has been able to accurately measure what the voters are thinking.

Today, however, will be a good test to see how candidates are able to organize a national campaign. With so many states in play, we not only see how far numerous resources can get someone (cough, Obama, cough), but if the Clinton machine is in full gear, and if McCain's endorsements and publicity from free media will translate into votes.

- - - - -

To find out who is currently ahead in the polls, not that they mean anything as of this morning, check out Real Clear Politics here or USA Today here for very comprehensive lists.

Since it is too much to cover in this blog, let me point out that The New York Times has an outstanding preview of all the states, what is at stake, and how the delegates are to be distributed.

Republicans and Democrats.

_ _ _ _ _

Here is a list of when the polls close for the states (all times ET):

9a
West Virginia convention (R)

7p
Georgia primaries

8p
Alabama primaries
Connecticut primaries
Delaware primaries
Illinois primaries
Massachusetts primaries
Missouri primaries
New Jersey primaries
Oklahoma primaries
Tennessee primaries

8:30p
Arkansas primaries

9p
Kansas caucuses (D)
Arizona primaries
Colorado caucuses
Minnesota primaries
New Mexico primary (D)
New York primaries

10p
Idaho caucuses (D)
Montana caucuses (R)
North Dakota caucuses
Utah primaries

11p
California primaries

1:30a
Alaska primaries

- - - - -

There are plenty of options when watching for the results tonight...first, check out Flag City Politico, but I suppose you could look at one of these as well (courtesy of MediaBistro):

ABC
five hours of coverage beginning at 8pm

CBS
two-hour special at 9pm

NBC
special report at 10p, plus one-hour Nightly News

PBS
three hours of coverage at 9p

CNN
40 hours of non-stop political programming begins at 6a

FOX
24-hours straight of live coverage, starting at 5a

MSNBC
from 6a until 2a Wednesday morning

Not sure what to watch for? The Wall Street Journal has you covered here.

- - - - -

I hope the title of this post didn't bother you. As long as everyone is coming up with superlatives for today's national primary, I thought I would throw in my choice. I hope you like it.

It's times like tonight that I wish I had a wall of TVs. If I am still married tomorrow morning, you will know how much my wife truly loves me.  ;-)

-RSKnopfJr

Florida Primary Results

And the winners are...
   
REPUBLICANS

JOHN McCAIN - 36%
MITT ROMNEY - 31%
RUDY GIULIANI - 15%
MIKE HUCKABEE - 14%
RON PAUL - 3%
   
   
DEMOCRATS

HILLARY CLINTON - 50%
BARACK OBAMA - 33%
JOHN EDWARDS - 14%
   
76% of precincts reporting - updated 01/29/08 10:00p

A report by Mark Halperin of Time Magazine says that Giuliani is going to endorse McCain as early as Wednesday. >>

Confirmed by NBC and ABC News.

- - - - -

McCain clearly has the big mo going leading up to next week's Super Tuesday. It will be his momentum versus the pocketbook of Romney. If, as expected, Giuliani leaves the race, this helps McCain in more than one way.

McCain expects to get Giuliani's endorsement, but better yet, his main competition for the moderate, independent vote be exiting. With Huckabee declaring he is moving on, he is in competition with Mitt Romney for the conservative Republican voting block. So...take away McCain's main nemesis, but leave Romney's in place, and what does that spell? How about McCain/Huckabee 08?

On the Democratic side, this wasn't a contest. In fact, MSNBC kept reading a disclaimer through the evening that reminded people that Clinton did not actually win anything - just a victory of public perception...but as I enjoy saying to anyone who will listen, 'perception equals reality'.

Tomorrow night, there is a Republican debate at the Reagan Library in California hosted by CNN, the LA Times and Politico.com. The next night, the Democrats take the stage in LA. As for tomorrow, the line-up may be down to four...and I'll be watching to see if McCain and Huckabee do what they can to take out Romney (remember, McCain/Huckabee 08). I am wondering if the Dems will do the same, with Obama and Edwards doing their best to knock Clinton around (Obama/Edwards 08?).

What a fun race that would be!
 

-RSKnopfJr

Florida Primary Preview

Well, today is the Florida primary, and we will find out a few things this evening

• Is Mitt Romney or John McCain the leader in the Republican race?
• Will Rudy Giuliani have the resources (or will) to continue on to next week's Super Tuesday contest?
• Who benefits from Fred Thompson dropping out last week?
• Even though the Democratic side is nothing more than a beauty contest (similar to Michigan, the Dem candidates vowed not to campaign in states that moved their primary dates earlier than the DNC allowed), does a win tonight by Clinton mean anything?

The biggest question coming about today today's race has to be Rudy Giuliani and his gamble about putting all of his eggs into the Florida basket. He was going against conventional wisdom by skipping the early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina), and putting his emphasis on Florida (California & New York next Tuesday). So, is this paying off? According to the polls...uh, no.

Insider Advantage     01/28
McCain - 31%   Romney - 30%   Huckabee - 15%   Giuliani - 13%

SurveyUSA     01/27-28
McCain - 32%   Romney - 31%   Giuliani - 15%   Huckabee - 13%

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby     01/27-28
McCain - 35%   Romney - 31%   Huckabee - 13%   Giuliani - 13%

Mitchell Research     01/27-28
Romney - 34%   McCain - 32%   Giuliani - 13%   Huckabee - 10%

Rasmussen     01/27
McCain - 31%   Romney - 31%   Giuliani - 16%   Huckabee - 11%

As you can see, things are not looking good for Rudy. A loss today probably knocks him out of the race, because recent polls in California, New York and New Jersey show him behind McCain (and if Giuliani cannot win New York and New Jersey, then he is not going to be the nominee).

Giuliani fights for survival as Florida votes
Florida voters cast their ballots on Tuesday in a contest that could anoint a front-runner among Republicans in the White House race and spell trouble for onetime favorite former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. >>
Reuters.com

With his limited financial resources, Huckabee had no chance of winning Florida either. A third-place finish, however, leaves him in the mix heading into next Tuesday...and don't forget, he still has the second most amount of delegates.

Romney vs McCain - the battle continues. Things have been churning this week, sometimes getting downright testy.

Candidates trade charges as Floridians flock to polls
The shouting from candidates was nearly -- but not quite over -- Tuesday as Floridians availed themselves of the most fundamental right and rite of democracy. >>
MiamiHerald.com

GOP hopefuls make final zip across Florida
Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney traded political punches as they crisscrossed Florida on Sunday hoping to break their deadlock in the state's winner-take-all presidential primary. >>
OrlandoSentinel.com

On the Democratic side, Florida really doesn't count in the overall standings. Right now, there are no delegates at stake, so there is nothing to win other than the perception battle. With Clinton's lead hovering around 20%, expect her to win this evening; although, it will be interesting to see if Obama's win in South Carolina can sway those numbers at all. If his supporters can cut Clinton's win down to 10% or below, watch how this gets spun into a victory for him, especially since he did not campaign in the state (unlike Clinton - she said she wouldn't, and technically she is ok, but she is now enjoying some time in the sunshine).

Clinton schedules appearance after polls close, avoids violating boycott
Polls opened across Florida this morning for a key presidential primary, with heavy turnout expected. >>
Tallahassee.com

When all the votes are counted, expect a 15% win for Clinton over Obama. On the Republican side, this is a tough one to call. It appears that momentum is on his side, and his message is resonating better with the voters. It won't be an upset if Romney wins, but give the edge to McCain at 35% to 31%. Giuliani will finish at 17% (and may exit the race tonight), Huckabee will have 13% (and move on to Super Tuesday) and Paul will wind up with 3% (and win every Internet poll). Tune in this evening for numbers and the winner.

-RSKnopfJr

South Carolina Primary Results (D)

And the winner is...

DEMOCRATS

BARACK OBAMA - 55%
HILLARY CLINTON - 27%
JOHN EDWARDS - 18%
DENNIS KUCINICH - 0%

99% of precincts reporting - updated 01/26/08 10:00p

-RSKnopfJr

South Carolina Democratic Primary Preview

Not to say it is over for Obama if he does not win South Carolina, but outside of Illinois, this is probably his best chance of winning a state and stemming the Clinton tide. I would like to see a Democratic contest just as exciting and unpredictable as their GOP counterparts, but if Clinton wins today, the nomination is hers.

Looking at the latest numbers for the state, the results (and expectations) are the same as they were heading into New Hampshire. Obama has the lead and is expected to win.

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby   01/24-25
Obama - 41%     Clinton - 26%     Edwards - 19%

Survey USA   01/23-24
Obama - 43%     Clinton - 30%     Edwards - 24%

Mason-Dixon   01/22-23
Obama - 38%     Clinton - 30%     Edwards - 19%

Clemson   01/15-23
Obama - 27%     Clinton - 20%     Edwards - 17%

Rasmussen   01/21
Obama - 43%     Clinton - 28%     Edwards - 17%

Edwards is keeping it close, and some have wondered if he could overtake Clinton and pull out a second-place finish. It may be possible, but not probable; Edwards' goal at this point is to get himself into the best possible position to play a role in the administration of the Democratic nominee (possible Attorney General?).

Edwards: Look for a 'surprise' in vote
Former N.C. Sen. John Edwards said he thinks there is an " opportunity for a surprise"  in Saturday's Democratic presidential primary. >>
The State

S.C. Democrats expect higher turnout at polls
Reasons abound, but nearly everyone expects a higher-than-average turnout for the Democratic primary today, while the Republican primary saw surprisingly low numbers of voters. >>
The Sun News

SC voters cast ballots with history, political attacks in mind
The skies were still dark when Keisha Adams got to the polls Saturday morning in South Carolina, where residents were to decide the outcome of the first Democratic primary in the South. >>
IslandPacket.com

State's delegates to be assigned by percentage
South Carolina has 54 national convention delegates at stake in today's Democratic presidential primary. >>
The Greenville News

What to expect...let's say that this time the pollsters learned their lesson and Obama will win. Final prediction: Obama 39%   Clinton - 33%   Edwards 25%...and each camp spinning how they came out ahead.

Results tonight as they come in.

-RSKnopfJr

Nevada Caucus Results

And the winners are...

REPUBLICANS

MITT ROMNEY - 51%

RON PAUL - 14%

JOHN McCAIN - 13%

MIKE HUCKABEE - 8%

FRED THOMPSON - 8%

RUDY GIULIANI - 4%

DUNCAN HUNTER - 2%

TOM TANCREDO - 0%

    

DEMOCRATS

HILLARY CLINTON - 51%

BARACK OBAMA - 45%

JOHN EDWARDS - 4%

uncommitted - 0%

DENNIS KUCINICH - 0%

BILL RICHARDSON - 0%

98% of precincts reporting - updated 01/19/08 8:55p

 

No great surprise in the results - and when it came to delegates awarded, Clinton and Obama basically tied. Clinton did well with women again, while the unions came out to do well for Obama. Next week is South Carolina, and we'll see if Obama can win the state he needs to.

Romney put some effort into this state, and was awarded for the money he invested. Also, the Mormon turnout helped him, but he would have won the caucus anyway. We know that he is not going to win South Carolina, so the headline for the day at least has him as a winner...not too bad when Florida is on the horizon, and Giuliani appears to be fading fast. Another 'gold' medal for Mitt, and he is positioning himself well to be one of the final contestants for the Republican nomination.

-RSKnopfJr

Previewing Saturday

I suppose it is a little too late to post my thoughts on the Republicans in Nevada, because the Associated Press just announced that Romney will win the state.

It makes sense, since he was polling in double-digits over McCain and Huckabee, and decided to spend his time (and money) in Nevada instead of South Carolina (where he was going to be hard pressed to surpass Huckabee, McCain and Thompson).

On the Democratic side in Nevada, it comes down to Clinton and Obama (again). Despite the brief respite of anger during the most recent debate, things heated up again this week between the two sides...with former President Clinton once again getting into the mix - alleging voter suppression.

Despite his endorsement from the culinary workers in Las Vegas, Obama's advancements will probably not overtake the infrastructure that Clinton has built over the last two years. Clinton should win by 7-9%, and will have some momentum going into next week's South Carolina primary.

Speaking of SC, the Republicans have their primary today. McCain is seeking to reverse past fortunes and pull out a victory in the state, while Huckabee is looking for a surge in support from Christians, and Thompson is hoping his southern roots will help get voters.

Despite all of the campaigning that has been done, the defining factor may be the weather. A snow storm was predicted for the northern part of the state, and this could affect turnout of Huckabee supporters. The southern and eastern parts of the state were only calling for rain, and this would seem to benefit McCain and the cluster of people backing him.

When all is said and done, look for McCain to get past Huckabee by 5-7%. He has been involved in this process over the past several years, and has roots (and a lot of support) in the state. Despite his (supposed) proximity to the state, Thompson has just not gathered the depth of support and fervor that is needed for a victory.

Results as they come in.

-RSKnopfJr

Michigan Primary Results

Fun night- a primary and a debate.

And the winner is...

REPUBLICANS

MITT ROMNEY - 39%

JOHN McCAIN - 30%

MIKE HUCKABEE - 16%

RON PAUL - 6%

FRED THOMPSON - 4%

RUDY GIULIANI - 3%

uncommitted - 2%

DUNCAN HUNTER - 0%

DEMOCRATS

HILLARY CLINTON - 57%

uncommitted - 38%

DENNIS KUCINICH - 4%

CHRISTOPHER DODD - 1%

MIKE GRAVEL - 0%

81% of precincts reporting - updated 01/15/08 11:00p

Well, I don't think there were any surprises tonight. Romney stays alive with the win, and now we have three different winners in the three Republican elections. Next up for the GOP, South Carolina and Nevada.

What is more interesting on the Democratic side, uncommitted getting 38% of the vote, or Christoper Dodd (out of the race) getting more votes that Mike Gravel (still in the race)...with not much else going on, you look for anything to talk about.

I have been watching the Democratic debate on MSNBC tonight. Pretty civil, especially after the last few days of heated accusations about race. Everyone is playing nice again...until tomorrow.  ;-)

I'm going to bed.

-RSKnopfJr