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Election - Primary

May 06, 2008

Hardcore Republicans voting Democrat

'Hardcore' Republicans voting Democrat
The two precincts at Broad Ripple Family Center selected Republican Jon Elrod over Democrat Andre Carson in March's special election for U.S. Congress. But by 9 a.m., just 21 voters in one of those precincts had requested Republican ballots -- out of 168 cast.
>>
The Indianapolis Star

Polls open in North Carolina
A heavy turnout was reported this morning at some polling places across North Carolina in the state's first significant presidential primary election in two decades.
>>
The Charlotte Observer

Obama Expands Lead in NC; Dems Still Biting Nails in Indiana!
On the strength of good polling numbers on the final day before the primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina, Barack Obama of Illinois holds a convincing lead in North Carolina, but the race is simply too close to call in Indiana, the latest Zogby two-day telephone tracking poll shows.
>>
Zogby International

Clinton campaign retools delegate math
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign yesterday tried to redefine the delegate math for securing the Democratic presidential nomination, signaling its willingness to wage a divisive battle with front-runner Sen. Barack Obama through the summer.
>>
The Washington Times

Paul Campaign Never Ended
As the Democratic presidential candidates held pre-primary rallies yesterday in Indiana and North Carolina, and presumptive Republican nominee John McCain spoke to the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, another major-party presidential candidate continued his own quest for nomination, headlining a "Freedom Rally" on a Fort Wayne, Ind., university campus.
>>
The Washington Post

-RSKnopfJr

Groundhog Day

Rise and shine campers...

Haven't we been here before, or does this political season just seem like the longest in history? It probably does, considering that candidates started running sooner, and the primaries started earlier than ever. You know the (not so) funny part? It still won't be over after today. Obama winning Indiana and/or North Carolina will not cause Clinton to end her campaign, and a win (or wins) by Clinton only strengthens her resolve and commitment to play this out until the convention.

Here's how the delegate count stands as we begin the day

Delegates

The latest polls show both Clinton and Obama headed to victory today...

Indiana

Inpoll

North Carolina

Ncpoll

numbers courtesy of Real Clear Politics


Candidates make pitch to party insiders

In back-to-back speeches before state Democratic activists in Indianapolis on Sunday night, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama each offered themselves as the candidate who can best deliver change to voters' paychecks, at gas pumps and to the power-brokers in Washington. >>
Indianapolis Star

Race for your vote
Candidates up and down the ballot started revving up their voter-turnout efforts Sunday, setting the stage for a bigger-than-ever N.C. primary finish. >>
The Charlotte Observer

Spin set, let the voting begin
In the run-up to Tuesday’s latest crucial set of primaries, Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton have both called themselves the “underdog.” But as they barrel into the biggest states left to vote, North Carolina and Indiana, polling and conventional wisdom have set clear expectations that belie that label.  >>
Politico

Check out the 'Democratic Delegate Calculator' from the New York Times so you can play along at home and see how far ahead Obama actually is. For example, if Clinton won 60% of the delegates in the remaining states (and that is NOT going to happen), Obama only needs to get 42% of the remaining superdelegates for the nomination (and considering he currently has the support of 48%, and has been exceeding even that number over the past two months), it shows how strong he is.

I'll check in later today, and be sure to check back tonight to find out who won, who lost, and how the spin is progressing.

-RSKnopfJr

March 03, 2008

FCPolitico endorses...

Here they are, my picks for Hancock County Commissioner, Sheriff, Treasurer and Coroner. Your feedback and comments are suggested and encouraged. You can agree or disagree with who and why - just keep it civil when telling me (and others) where I went wrong and how I failed you. Now, without further delay...

For Hancock County Coroner, FCPolitico endorses JOHN P. ZIEGLER. Even though challenger Mark Fox has been working under the current coroner, Leroy Schroeder, for the past seven years, I think that a fresh perspective and a clean start are sometimes more important that continuity.

Ziegler operates a private practice (versus working for Blanchard Valley Medical Associates), and also believes that the county should look at saving a little money by doing autopsies here instead of paying Lucas County. Just the idea of doing that, and not keeping the status quo in place because it is working, gets my vote.


For Hancock County Treasurer, FCPolitico endorses J. STEVE WELTON. Even though he has taken a lot of criticism for closing the treasurer's office over the lunch hour, he explained it as a result of limited personnel and security concerns...two things that he should not be faulted for. Now that he has enough people to keep the office manned, people will be looking to make sure that opening back up over the noon hour was more than a political maneuver.

While in office, Welton has implemented ways to pay taxes via the computer and telephone, showing a move into the technological arena. Larry Settlemire has experience running a company (as President of Imperial Construction), but I am not sure how well that translates into being the treasurer for the county (he is young and could run again in four years). For now, I will stick with Welton, and make sure he delivers on what he promises.


For Hancock County Sheriff, FCPolitico endorses THOMAS L. RENNINGER. I appreciate the job that Michael Heldman has done over the past 12 years, especially considering the financial limitations he has faced, but perhaps a change in management style will help address some of these issues.

Thomas Renninger has the experience to do the job, and can take what he learned handling a large budget and staff as Findlay police chief and apply it on the county level. I am not suggesting that the change WILL make a difference, but as someone who pays taxes, I think that a new course of action should be looked at - and that means a change in leadership.

The duties of the office will remain the same no matter how much the county is bringing in and giving the departments, so it is important to spend money wisely. I am sure that Sheriff Heldman has done what he thinks is correct (and I cannot fault him for any specific action), but I think that someone else may be needed to take the office to 'the next level', especially when it comes to jail expansion and allocation of resources. That is why I am willing to give Renninger the opportunity to show us what he thinks he can do.


For Hancock County Commissioner, FCPolitico endorses ROBERT J. KUHLMAN and EMILY A. WALTON.

I am selecting Kuhlman over Ingold for two reasons: communications and credibility. Ingold may be a brilliant man with a knowledge of finances and operations that surpasses those of the common citizens...and he would be the first to let you know of it. On three occasions, I have had the opportunity to watch him answer questions from people just like you and me, and every time I have come away disappointed. He is smart, and he does his best to prove it to you. Instead of being empathetic about your situation, be is emphatic that it is not the county's fault. Yet despite whatever skills or intentions Ingold has, the county is pretty much in the same position it was in when he took office...and that's not good.

Kuhlman may be brash sometimes, but he gets to the point. He knows be might be better than others...but it is usually directed at those who are in the positions of responsibility, not those paying the salaries. I believe Kuhlman would be a better communicator, and in my opinion, anything coming from him is instantly more credible than his opponent. I appreciate that he is willing to look at technology to keep citizens engaged (one look at the Commissioners website tells you all you need to know about their technical skills), and he would bring a no-nonsense attitude, and a conservative fiscal policy, when it comes to managing county resources. He may not be an ideal candidate, but I think he is a better option than who currently holds the office.

For the other seat, we are left between selecting an incumbent, a commissioner who has been voted out (and lost in a comeback bid), or a political newcomer. First, let's take Brad Griffin out of the mix...not necessarily because he does not have any experience, but because the time just is not right for someone new with good intentions and a willingness to learn. That time was two years ago, and someone filled the position. I would encourage Griffin to remain involved (attend meetings, write letters to the editor, become a trustee) and come back in two (or four) years. If nothing else, the experience of running for office will help him if he decides to try again.

So that leaves me to choose between Oman and Walton...and let me put it this way - back in 2004, even I was thinking about running for commissioner so we could get Oman out of office. I do not harbor any ill will toward him personally, but I do not think that he did a good job while he was commissioner, and I am not willing to give him another opportunity at the expense of removing Walton (he picked the wrong person to run against). Walton, on the other hand, is a tireless worker who has come to understand the nuances of the position. I was impressed by her at the candidate's forum, and also believe that she provided the most thoughtful set of answers to the questionnaire I sent out.

Also, I like how the commissioners office shapes up if everything happens the way I want

  • Emily Walton, a older female, with four years of experience
  • Philip Riegle, a younger male, with two years of experience
  • Robert Kuhlman, an older male, bringing new ideas to the group with a wealth of experience from other boards and Findlay City Council

It is a nice mix of young and old, both genders, different backgrounds and philosophies, working together with our best interests in mind. Now, if it only works out that way in real life instead of in my politically idealistic world.


No matter what party you are from, or whether the weather is going to be icky, make sure you get out and vote tomorrow. Polls are open from 6:30a to 7:30p. If you are not sure where to vote, click here or call the Hancock County Board of Elections at          419-422-3245       . As always, if you need a ride, e-mail me and I will hook up Xavier and Snowflake to the sled and come get you. Democracy...it's fan-tastic!

-RSKnopfJr

February 20, 2008

20160 minutes

Two weeks.

14 days.

336 hours.

When the clock hits zero on March 4, we will know who the Republican nominee for President will be, and we may be closer to knowing the identity of his opponent.

Watching the results from last night (between fits of coughing), it is amazing how far these races have come over the past few months. Clinton was supposed to be the nominee, and McCain was very close to being out of the race.

Listening to Obama and McCain give their victory speeches last night, you could not help but notice the differences that are sure to offer a clear choice between now and November: younger versus older, fresh candidate versus experienced candidate, new generation versus greatest generation.

It is still possible that Clinton could pull this out, but not probable, and last night, you saw McCain and Obama address each other during their speeches, giving us an early look at how their national campaigns will be.

Obama's speech (which was over 40 minutes) provided a laundry list of substantive issues that he believes (I didn't want to use the word 'hope') will be appealing to voters. McCain touched on patriotism, national defense and experience...not the sort of thing that might work in a campaign against Obama, considering this is what Clinton has been trying to rally around over the past few months.

My youngest daughter keeps asking me who I am going to vote for in the primary, so I used an old trainer's tool by asking her who she would vote for. She started telling me that they are talking about this in school now, and they started developing study packets on the candidates and issues. She had to write who she would vote for, and why.

To her credit, she must be paying attention to me at home because she wrote that she would vote for Mike Huckabee. Reading her paper, she tried to write about Huckabee's fair tax...pretty astute for a sixth grader (my goodness, they grow up quickly), making me proud that she is tuning in to current events, and taking an interest in something that her Dad has a passion about.

The most important thing about March 4th is not who is going to win the primary, or even if a candidate will clinch a nomination. I wish that people would just vote. We keep hearing about all of the other states breaking records in the number of voters coming to the polls, and it would be nice to have Ohio (or at least Hancock County) be part of this.

We have a few weeks for the yard signs to pop up, people to wear the buttons, and for neighbors to talk to each other about who (and why) they will vote for. I would really enjoy seeing long lines at the polls that day, and everyone taking, not only an interest, but an investment in our democracy and our future.

If you want to share your election stories with others, e-mail me and I will post them here. Send me pictures of what is going on in your neighborhood, or at your polling place, and I will make sure they get on-line so others can see the spirit and enthusiasm that is out there.

In the meantime, the clock is running.

-RSKnopfJr

February 18, 2008

Preview

Happy Presidents Day!!

We've been in a holding pattern for a week now. With the flurry of activity since the first of the year, it seems strange to be waiting for the next round of primaries to be held...but the wait will soon be over.

Tomorrow, Wisconsin and Washington hold primary elections, and Democrats in Hawaii will be caucusing. With every delegate counting more and more, these races are more important than everyone thought they would be at this point a year ago. I really enjoy that this election cycle is playing out as it is. We are experiencing something that hasn't happened for decades, and it is fascinating to watch and live through.

Just to get everyone up to speed, here are the latest delegate counts...

Obama - 1262
Clinton - 1213
Gravel - 0
needed to clinch - 2025

McCain - 830
Huckabee - 217
Paul - 16
needed to clinch - 1191

Since everyone believes that McCain is inevitable (that is a different topic for a different time), let's look at the numbers for the Democratic nomination. And when looking at poll numbers, remember how reliable they have been in the past. These numbers are for Wisconsin (92 delegates). Remember, Washington had a caucus on Feb 9, so this primary election is non-binding (and somewhat confusing). It is generally considered that Hawaii (29 delegates) will be for Obama.

Clinton - 49%
Obama - 43%

American Research Group - 02/15-16

Obama - 47%
Clinton - 42%

Research 2000 - 02/13-14

Obama - 47%
Clinton - 43%

Rasmussen - 02/13

In a race this close, let's see what's going on up north.

Winter Storm Detours Democratic Candidates
Politics took a back seat to the weather Sunday as two Democratic campaign events had to be canceled. >>
WBAY

Candidates gear up for the big day
The two Democratic candidates for president appeared at the same dinner in Milwaukee Saturday, targeting the important Wisconsin delegation leading up to Tuesday’s primary. >>
The Badger Herald

Republicans for Obama
Arizona Sen. John McCain is going to be the party's nominee. That's good for Republicans, because for all his flaws, the Arizona senator is the most appealing prospect their party has to offer this year. >>
The Capital Times

Refusing to cry 'uncle,' Huckabee out-campaigns Republican rival
He can pick up a spare, but can he pick up the state? >>
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

The pick? Obama makes it 10 in a row, narrowly edging Clinton in Wisconsin by 3%, winning Hawaii by over 30%, and...well, who knows why Washington is having a primary, but we'll say Obama by 22%.

- - - - -

I received the first reply to the letter I sent out last week. You'll have to wait to see who responded, but to give you a hint, this person has the same initials as me. Make sure you have your comments ready to go for when I post everything.

- - - - -

Reminder...tonight is the 2008 Candidate Forum sponsored by The Courier, WFIN and UFTV. The forum, featuring candidates for Hancock County commissioner and sheriff, can be heard on 1330-AM or seen on Findlay TimeWarner channel 20 starting at 6p. I'll be there...will you?

-RSKnopfJr

February 07, 2008

Crunching the Numbers

I hope you're ready for some television commercials from the Presidential candidates (especially Democrat), because Ohio and our March 4 primary are definitely on everyone's calendar. I did some quick math last night, and it appears that both parties nominees could be locked up on Decision Tuesday (that's the name I am giving to the March 4 primaries...if you have a better suggestion, leave a comment).

McCain has 720 delegates out of the 1191 he needs for the nomination. Even if he runs the table for the rest of February, he will still only be at 1005. With only two of the upcoming contests being winner take all (w), RHP (RomneyHuckabeePaul) have an opportunity to sneak a few delegates into their column.

On Decision Tuesday, McCain could secure the nomination because of the four states that day

  • Ohio - 88 delegates
  • Rhode Island - 20 delegates
  • Texas - 140 delegates
  • Vermont - 17 delegates (w)

On the Democratic side, things are the same...yet different. Clinton has 1056 delegates out of the 2025 she needs for the nomination. Even is she runs the table for the rest of February, she will still only be at 1643. We know that there is no possibility of her getting every delegate in the contests between now and March, but agree to suspend reality for a moment.

On Decision Tuesday, Clinton could secure the nomination because of the four states that day

  • Ohio - 161 delegates
  • Rhode Island - 32 delegates
  • Texas - 228 delegates
  • Vermont - 23 delegates

Looking ahead, let's be more realistic and say that Clinton and Obama split delegates for the time being. After the 4th, there are two small contests remaining in March (Wyoming, Mississippi), and then the only one in April is Pennsylvania with 188 delegates. IF things are not settled by then, there are five contests in May and two in June...and then..and then...to the convention in Denver (admit it, you would love to see it come to that).

No matter whether clinching on the 4th is practical (McCain), or if there is a fierce contest for delegates (Clinton/Obama), Ohio is going to receiver a fair amount of attention over the next three weeks. Don't say I didn't warn you.

- - - - -

Some of the biggest news after Tuesday came from, once again, the Democrats...

Hillary Clinton will go for broke
Hillary Rodham Clinton personally lent her cash-strapped campaign $5 million late last month, and some top staffers are now going without pay, officials acknowledged yesterday. >>>
New York Post

Obama on pace to raise $30 mil in Feb
Barack Obama’s campaign is on track to raise another $30 million in February, sources close to the Illinois senator say, while Hillary Rodham Clinton’s spokesman revealed Wednesday that she had loaned her campaign $5 million. >>>
Politico

Democratic dead-heat 'not good news' says Dean
Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean on Wednesday voiced concern over the prospect of a brokered convention at the end of the party's White House nominating contests. >>>
Breitbart

Dem caucuses in Michigan, Florida suggested
The increasing possibility of a divisive battle over whether to seat Michigan's delegation to the Democratic National Convention has party officials looking for a compromise. >>>
The Detroit News

- - - - -

I hope that you're staying dry. Keep smilin'!  :-)

-RSKnopfJr

February 06, 2008

Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Tuesday Results

updated 02/06/08 2:00a

What a night! In such an unpredictable political season, what we saw this evening (and early this morning) was just as exciting as the college football season we just experienced.

There will be more time later today to discuss the results, and a look at how the delegate race shakes out. New Mexico (D) and Alaska (R) have still not been called, but it is late and I need to get some sleep. With everything going on today, and the historical ramifications of what happened, here's a little something to think about as you lay your head down on your pillow tonight...

Obama_7

Both Clinton and Obama can claim momentum out of tonight. Obama won more states, but Clinton won the big states of California and New York. A quick look at the delegates shows that things are almost even, and the fight now continues on to the next round of states this weekend.

Clinton_4

For the GOP, despite not running away and winning convincingly, McCain won enough to start distancing himself from Romney and Huckabee in the delegate count. With so many winner-take-all contests, McCain won the right ones (i.e., New York, New Jersey, Missouri) and is now building a commanding lead.

Mccain_5

Huckabee is developing into a serious contender for the Republican VP slot. With doing so well in the 'Bible Belt' states, Huckabee is presenting himself as the strong conservative ally that McCain is probably going to need to shore up the Republican base that he will need in November if he is the nominee.

Mccain_6

Does Romney continue on? Winning six states tonight, I think he will...but he really needed to do well in California, and not winning there really hurt his chances to stop the 'Straight Talk Express'. We will discuss this more over the next few days, but for now, it is time to get some sleep and dream of how cool it would be if both races came down to the convention.

Huckabee_5

Until tomorrow...er, I mean later today...

-RSKnopfJr

February 05, 2008

Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Tuesday

24 states...1 day!

No, today is not the next version of 'The Amazing Race', it is the political version of 'Survivor'. LOL!

Clinton and McCain look to take commanding leads in delegates, but Obama and Romney/Huckabee are not going to go away that easily. Obama has come so close to Clinton in the national polls, they are virtually tied. And despite the win in Florida and endorsements from Giuliani and Schwarzenegger, he has not wrapped up the Republican nomination...yet.

So, what do we look for today? Honestly, no one knows. This is the largest one-day primary in our electoral history, so all bets are off when it comes to predicting. It wouldn't matter anyway, because no one has been able to accurately measure what the voters are thinking.

Today, however, will be a good test to see how candidates are able to organize a national campaign. With so many states in play, we not only see how far numerous resources can get someone (cough, Obama, cough), but if the Clinton machine is in full gear, and if McCain's endorsements and publicity from free media will translate into votes.

- - - - -

To find out who is currently ahead in the polls, not that they mean anything as of this morning, check out Real Clear Politics here or USA Today here for very comprehensive lists.

Since it is too much to cover in this blog, let me point out that The New York Times has an outstanding preview of all the states, what is at stake, and how the delegates are to be distributed.

Republicans and Democrats.

_ _ _ _ _

Here is a list of when the polls close for the states (all times ET):

9a
West Virginia convention (R)

7p
Georgia primaries

8p
Alabama primaries
Connecticut primaries
Delaware primaries
Illinois primaries
Massachusetts primaries
Missouri primaries
New Jersey primaries
Oklahoma primaries
Tennessee primaries

8:30p
Arkansas primaries

9p
Kansas caucuses (D)
Arizona primaries
Colorado caucuses
Minnesota primaries
New Mexico primary (D)
New York primaries

10p
Idaho caucuses (D)
Montana caucuses (R)
North Dakota caucuses
Utah primaries

11p
California primaries

1:30a
Alaska primaries

- - - - -

There are plenty of options when watching for the results tonight...first, check out Flag City Politico, but I suppose you could look at one of these as well (courtesy of MediaBistro):

ABC
five hours of coverage beginning at 8pm

CBS
two-hour special at 9pm

NBC
special report at 10p, plus one-hour Nightly News

PBS
three hours of coverage at 9p

CNN
40 hours of non-stop political programming begins at 6a

FOX
24-hours straight of live coverage, starting at 5a

MSNBC
from 6a until 2a Wednesday morning

Not sure what to watch for? The Wall Street Journal has you covered here.

- - - - -

I hope the title of this post didn't bother you. As long as everyone is coming up with superlatives for today's national primary, I thought I would throw in my choice. I hope you like it.

It's times like tonight that I wish I had a wall of TVs. If I am still married tomorrow morning, you will know how much my wife truly loves me.  ;-)

-RSKnopfJr

February 04, 2008

Maine Caucus Results (R)

While the rest of us were enjoying Super Bowl weekend, and wondering how Manning completed that pass to Tyree (according to my wife, Manning's good looks had something to do with it), Republicans across Maine were caucusing to determine who they wanted for their nominee.

And the winner is...

REPUBLICANS

Maine_romney

MITT ROMNEY - 2,362 votes     52%     18 delegates
JOHN McCAIN - 958 votes     21%
RON PAUL - 851 votes     19%
MIKE HUCKABEE - 268 votes     6%
Undecided - 94 votes     2%
FRED THOMPSON - 4 votes     0%
Total Write-ins - 3 votes     0%
RUDY GIULIANI -  2 votes     0%
ALAN KEYES - 1 votes     0%

68% of precincts reporting

This is the fourth state Romney has won, compared to the three for McCain (and Huckabee with one). In the race for delegates, Romney closed the gap, and now trails McCain 97-92.

Tomorrow, of course, is Super Tuesday and the closest thing to a national primary our country has ever seen. Check back tomorrow for the latest news about what is happening around the country and to see if any of the candidates can pull away from the pack.

-RSKnopfJr

January 29, 2008

Florida Primary Results

And the winners are...
   

REPUBLICANS

Mccain_fla

JOHN McCAIN - 36%
MITT ROMNEY - 31%
RUDY GIULIANI - 15%
MIKE HUCKABEE - 14%
RON PAUL - 3%
   
   
DEMOCRATS

Clinton_fla

HILLARY CLINTON - 50%
BARACK OBAMA - 33%
JOHN EDWARDS - 14%

   
76% of precincts reporting - updated 01/29/08 10:00p

A report by Mark Halperin of Time Magazine says that Giuliani is going to endorse McCain as early as Wednesday. >>

Confirmed by NBC and ABC News.

- - - - -

McCain clearly has the big mo going leading up to next week's Super Tuesday. It will be his momentum versus the pocketbook of Romney. If, as expected, Giuliani leaves the race, this helps McCain in more than one way.

McCain expects to get Giuliani's endorsement, but better yet, his main competition for the moderate, independent vote be exiting. With Huckabee declaring he is moving on, he is in competition with Mitt Romney for the conservative Republican voting block. So...take away McCain's main nemesis, but leave Romney's in place, and what does that spell? How about McCain/Huckabee 08?

On the Democratic side, this wasn't a contest. In fact, MSNBC kept reading a disclaimer through the evening that reminded people that Clinton did not actually win anything - just a victory of public perception...but as I enjoy saying to anyone who will listen, 'perception equals reality'.

Tomorrow night, there is a Republican debate at the Reagan Library in California hosted by CNN, the LA Times and Politico.com. The next night, the Democrats take the stage in LA. As for tomorrow, the line-up may be down to four...and I'll be watching to see if McCain and Huckabee do what they can to take out Romney (remember, McCain/Huckabee 08). I am wondering if the Dems will do the same, with Obama and Edwards doing their best to knock Clinton around (Obama/Edwards 08?).

What a fun race that would be!
 

-RSKnopfJr

Florida Primary Preview

Well, today is the Florida primary, and we will find out a few things this evening

  • Is Mitt Romney or John McCain the leader in the Republican race?
  • Will Rudy Giuliani have the resources (or will) to continue on to next week's Super Tuesday contest?
  • Who benefits from Fred Thompson dropping out last week?
  • Even though the Democratic side is nothing more than a beauty contest (similar to Michigan, the Dem candidates vowed not to campaign in states that moved their primary dates earlier than the DNC allowed), does a win tonight by Clinton mean anything?

The biggest question coming about today today's race has to be Rudy Giuliani and his gamble about putting all of his eggs into the Florida basket. He was going against conventional wisdom by skipping the early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina), and putting his emphasis on Florida (California & New York next Tuesday). So, is this paying off? According to the polls...uh, no.

Insider Advantage     01/28
McCain - 31%   Romney - 30%   Huckabee - 15%   Giuliani - 13%

SurveyUSA     01/27-28
McCain - 32%   Romney - 31%   Giuliani - 15%   Huckabee - 13%

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby     01/27-28
McCain - 35%   Romney - 31%   Huckabee - 13%   Giuliani - 13%

Mitchell Research     01/27-28
Romney - 34%   McCain - 32%   Giuliani - 13%   Huckabee - 10%

Rasmussen     01/27
McCain - 31%   Romney - 31%   Giuliani - 16%   Huckabee - 11%

As you can see, things are not looking good for Rudy. A loss today probably knocks him out of the race, because recent polls in California, New York and New Jersey show him behind McCain (and if Giuliani cannot win New York and New Jersey, then he is not going to be the nominee).

Giuliani fights for survival as Florida votes
Florida voters cast their ballots on Tuesday in a contest that could anoint a front-runner among Republicans in the White House race and spell trouble for onetime favorite former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
>>
Reuters.com

With his limited financial resources, Huckabee had no chance of winning Florida either. A third-place finish, however, leaves him in the mix heading into next Tuesday...and don't forget, he still has the second most amount of delegates.

Romney vs McCain - the battle continues. Things have been churning this week, sometimes getting downright testy.

Candidates trade charges as Floridians flock to polls
The shouting from candidates was nearly -- but not quite over -- Tuesday as Floridians availed themselves of the most fundamental right and rite of democracy.
>>
MiamiHerald.com

GOP hopefuls make final zip across Florida
Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney traded political punches as they crisscrossed Florida on Sunday hoping to break their deadlock in the state's winner-take-all presidential primary.
>>
OrlandoSentinel.com

On the Democratic side, Florida really doesn't count in the overall standings. Right now, there are no delegates at stake, so there is nothing to win other than the perception battle. With Clinton's lead hovering around 20%, expect her to win this evening; although, it will be interesting to see if Obama's win in South Carolina can sway those numbers at all. If his supporters can cut Clinton's win down to 10% or below, watch how this gets spun into a victory for him, especially since he did not campaign in the state (unlike Clinton - she said she wouldn't, and technically she is ok, but she is now enjoying some time in the sunshine).

Clinton schedules appearance after polls close, avoids violating boycott
Polls opened across Florida this morning for a key presidential primary, with heavy turnout expected.
>>
Tallahassee.com

When all the votes are counted, expect a 15% win for Clinton over Obama. On the Republican side, this is a tough one to call. It appears that momentum is on his side, and his message is resonating better with the voters. It won't be an upset if Romney wins, but give the edge to McCain at 35% to 31%. Giuliani will finish at 17% (and may exit the race tonight), Huckabee will have 13% (and move on to Super Tuesday) and Paul will wind up with 3% (and win every Internet poll). Tune in this evening for numbers and the winner.

-RSKnopfJr

January 26, 2008

South Carolina Primary Results (D)

And the winner is...

DEMOCRATS

Obama_sc

BARACK OBAMA - 55%
HILLARY CLINTON - 27%
JOHN EDWARDS - 18%
DENNIS KUCINICH - 0%

99% of precincts reporting - updated 01/26/08 10:00p

-RSKnopfJr

South Carolina Democratic Primary Preview

Not to say it is over for Obama if he does not win South Carolina, but outside of Illinois, this is probably his best chance of winning a state and stemming the Clinton tide. I would like to see a Democratic contest just as exciting and unpredictable as their GOP counterparts, but if Clinton wins today, the nomination is hers.

Looking at the latest numbers for the state, the results (and expectations) are the same as they were heading into New Hampshire. Obama has the lead and is expected to win.

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby   01/24-25
Obama - 41%     Clinton - 26%     Edwards - 19%

Survey USA   01/23-24
Obama - 43%     Clinton - 30%     Edwards - 24%

Mason-Dixon   01/22-23
Obama - 38%     Clinton - 30%     Edwards - 19%

Clemson   01/15-23
Obama - 27%     Clinton - 20%     Edwards - 17%

Rasmussen   01/21
Obama - 43%     Clinton - 28%     Edwards - 17%

Edwards is keeping it close, and some have wondered if he could overtake Clinton and pull out a second-place finish. It may be possible, but not probable; Edwards' goal at this point is to get himself into the best possible position to play a role in the administration of the Democratic nominee (possible Attorney General?).

Edwards: Look for a 'surprise' in vote
Former N.C. Sen. John Edwards said he thinks there is an " opportunity for a surprise"  in Saturday's Democratic presidential primary.
>>
The State

S.C. Democrats expect higher turnout at polls
Reasons abound, but nearly everyone expects a higher-than-average turnout for the Democratic primary today, while the Republican primary saw surprisingly low numbers of voters.
>>
The Sun News

SC voters cast ballots with history, political attacks in mind
The skies were still dark when Keisha Adams got to the polls Saturday morning in South Carolina, where residents were to decide the outcome of the first Democratic primary in the South.
>>
IslandPacket.com

State's delegates to be assigned by percentage
South Carolina has 54 national convention delegates at stake in today's Democratic presidential primary.
>>
The Greenville News

What to expect...let's say that this time the pollsters learned their lesson and Obama will win. Final prediction: Obama 39%   Clinton - 33%   Edwards 25%...and each camp spinning how they came out ahead.

Results tonight as they come in.

-RSKnopfJr

January 19, 2008

South Carolina Primary Results (R)

And the winner is...

REPUBLICANS

Mccain_sc

JOHN McCAIN - 33%

MIKE HUCKABEE - 30%

FRED THOMPSON - 16%

MITT ROMNEY - 15%

RON PAUL - 4%

RUDY GIULIANI - 2%

DUNCAN HUNTER - 0%

93% of precincts reporting - updated 01/19/08 11:45p

 

This is pretty much expected, and I think everyone can see now that Thompson and Huckabee just are not going to be able to do it this time around. As much as I hate to admit it, the Republican field is down to three, and Florida is going to be a big test to see if Giuliani can gain any traction.

Huckabee seemed to be hurt by support for Thompson, and that is probably fine with Fred; if he can't win, he is happy that his good friend McCain got the victory. In a speech to supporters this evening, it seemed like Thompson was getting ready to announce that he was withdrawing, but it seemed like he couldn't bring himself to utter the sentence.

Huckabee still remains a VP candidate, and you have to imagine that McCain and Romney would not look to each other to accept the slot if one of them became the nominee. So...next stop is Florida, and we get to see how well Giuliani's strategic team planned this. Early look at the numbers for the Florida primary in 10 days (according to the latest poll from Insider Advantage):

  • Giuliani - 21%
  • McCain - 20%
  • Romney - 20%
  • Huckabee - 13%
  • Thompson - 7%
  • Paul - 6%

Received an e-mail tonight from Duncan Hunter's campaign...he is dropping out of the Republican race for President:

"We started this campaign a year ago right here, in San Diego Harbor, against the backdrop of American Naval power.   We launched a campaign emphasizing a strong national defense, enforceable borders and restoring  the industrial base of America.  Today we end this campaign.  The Nevada caucuses reflecting only 2% of the vote for me.   I ran the campaign exactly the way I wanted to, and at this point not being able to gain traction in conservative states of Nevada and South Carolina, it's time to allow our volunteers and supporters to focus on the campaigns that remain viable."

-RSKnopfJr

Nevada Caucus Results

And the winners are...

REPUBLICANS

Romney_nevada

MITT ROMNEY - 51%

RON PAUL - 14%

JOHN McCAIN - 13%

MIKE HUCKABEE - 8%

FRED THOMPSON - 8%

RUDY GIULIANI - 4%

DUNCAN HUNTER - 2%

TOM TANCREDO - 0%

    

DEMOCRATS

Clinton_nevada

HILLARY CLINTON - 51%

BARACK OBAMA - 45%

JOHN EDWARDS - 4%

uncommitted - 0%

DENNIS KUCINICH - 0%

BILL RICHARDSON - 0%

98% of precincts reporting - updated 01/19/08 8:55p

 

No great surprise in the results - and when it came to delegates awarded, Clinton and Obama basically tied. Clinton did well with women again, while the unions came out to do well for Obama. Next week is South Carolina, and we'll see if Obama can win the state he needs to.

Romney put some effort into this state, and was awarded for the money he invested. Also, the Mormon turnout helped him, but he would have won the caucus anyway. We know that he is not going to win South Carolina, so the headline for the day at least has him as a winner...not too bad when Florida is on the horizon, and Giuliani appears to be fading fast. Another 'gold' medal for Mitt, and he is positioning himself well to be one of the final contestants for the Republican nomination.

-RSKnopfJr

Previewing Saturday

I suppose it is a little too late to post my thoughts on the Republicans in Nevada, because the Associated Press just announced that Romney will win the state.

It makes sense, since he was polling in double-digits over McCain and Huckabee, and decided to spend his time (and money) in Nevada instead of South Carolina (where he was going to be hard pressed to surpass Huckabee, McCain and Thompson).

Nvrep_poll

On the Democratic side in Nevada, it comes down to Clinton and Obama (again). Despite the brief respite of anger during the most recent debate, things heated up again this week between the two sides...with former President Clinton once again getting into the mix - alleging voter suppression.

Nvdem_poll

Despite his endorsement from the culinary workers in Las Vegas, Obama's advancements will probably not overtake the infrastructure that Clinton has built over the last two years. Clinton should win by 7-9%, and will have some momentum going into next week's South Carolina primary.

Speaking of SC, the Republicans have their primary today. McCain is seeking to reverse past fortunes and pull out a victory in the state, while Huckabee is looking for a surge in support from Christians, and Thompson is hoping his southern roots will help get voters.

Scpoll

Despite all of the campaigning that has been done, the defining factor may be the weather. A snow storm was predicted for the northern part of the state, and this could affect turnout of Huckabee supporters. The southern and eastern parts of the state were only calling for rain, and this would seem to benefit McCain and the cluster of people backing him.

When all is said and done, look for McCain to get past Huckabee by 5-7%. He has been involved in this process over the past several years, and has roots (and a lot of support) in the state. Despite his (supposed) proximity to the state, Thompson has just not gathered the depth of support and fervor that is needed for a victory.

Results as they come in.

-RSKnopfJr

Continue reading "Previewing Saturday" »

January 15, 2008

Michigan Primary Results

Fun night- a primary and a debate.

And the winner is...


REPUBLICANS

Romney_michigan

MITT ROMNEY - 39%

JOHN McCAIN - 30%

MIKE HUCKABEE - 16%

RON PAUL - 6%

FRED THOMPSON - 4%

RUDY GIULIANI - 3%

uncommitted - 2%

DUNCAN HUNTER - 0%


DEMOCRATS

Clinton_michigan

HILLARY CLINTON - 57%

uncommitted - 38%

DENNIS KUCINICH - 4%

CHRISTOPHER DODD - 1%

MIKE GRAVEL - 0%


81% of precincts reporting - updated 01/15/08 11:00p


Well, I don't think there were any surprises tonight. Romney stays alive with the win, and now we have three different winners in the three Republican elections. Next up for the GOP, South Carolina and Nevada.

What is more interesting on the Democratic side, uncommitted getting 38% of the vote, or Christoper Dodd (out of the race) getting more votes that Mike Gravel (still in the race)...with not much else going on, you look for anything to talk about.

I have been watching the Democratic debate on MSNBC tonight. Pretty civil, especially after the last few days of heated accusations about race. Everyone is playing nice again...until tomorrow. 
;-)

I'm going to bed.

-RSKnopfJr

January 14, 2008

Previewing the Michigan Primary

Looking ahead to tomorrow's Michigan Primary...

In this year of unusual political dynamics, a few more will be in play tomorrow. You all remember how states were jockeying to move their primary election days earlier and earlier? Of course you do - it was in all the papers. Well, Michigan was going to be sanctioned by the political parties for doing this (really, it was just a threat of losing delegates (representation) at the national conventions).

Well, on the Democratic side, this meant that some of the candidates were not going to upset the party and asked to have their names removed from the ballot. On the ballot tomorrow, you will not see Obama or Edwards (or Biden & Richardson). Instead, the ballot will read

  • Hillary Clinton
  • Christopher Dodd
  • Mike Gravel
  • Dennis Kucinich
  • Uncommitted

In it's guide to voters, the Michigan Democratic Party urges supporters of those not appearing on the ballot to vote 'uncommitted' - and then the delegates selected can vote for whomever they want to at the national convention.

Here's the 'polling' that has been done

Detroit News  01/09-12
Clinton - 56%
Uncommitted - 33%

Detroit Free Press  01/09-11
Clinton - 56%
Uncommitted - 30%

American Research Group  01/09-11
Clinton - 57%
Uncommitted - 28%

Now, here is what makes things interesting...

In Michigan, when you arrive to vote, you are asked whether you want a Democratic or Republican ballot, and a record is made of which one you take. So, with no one to vote for, will Democrats try to influence the Republican race and vote for someone who may not be the strongest candidate? With independents in play as well, it will be interesting to see who gains from all of this.

Newspaper endorsements appear to be for Romney (Grand Rapids Press, Oakland Press) and McCain (Detroit News, Detroit Free Press). The polls confirm that this is a close, two-person race. If you look at one set of polls...

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby  01/11-13
McCain - 27%
Romney - 24%
Huckabee - 15%
Paul - 8%
Giuliani - 6%
Thompson - 5%

Detroit News  01/09-12
McCain - 27%
Romney - 26%
Huckabee - 19%
Giuliani - 6%
Thompson - 5%
Paul - 4%

American Research Group  01/09-11
McCain - 34%
Romney - 27%
Huckabee - 15%
Paul - 9%
Giuliani - 5%
Thompson - 4%

...or another set...

Mitchell Research  01/10-13
Romney - 29%
McCain - 27%
Huckabee - 12%
Paul - 7%
Giuliani - 7%
Thompson - 4%

Detroit Free Press  01/09-11