Flag City Politico

Hardcore Republicans voting Democrat

'Hardcore' Republicans voting Democrat
The two precincts at Broad Ripple Family Center selected Republican Jon Elrod over Democrat Andre Carson in March's special election for U.S. Congress. But by 9 a.m., just 21 voters in one of those precincts had requested Republican ballots -- out of 168 cast. >>
The Indianapolis Star

Polls open in North Carolina
A heavy turnout was reported this morning at some polling places across North Carolina in the state's first significant presidential primary election in two decades. >>
The Charlotte Observer

Obama Expands Lead in NC; Dems Still Biting Nails in Indiana!
On the strength of good polling numbers on the final day before the primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina, Barack Obama of Illinois holds a convincing lead in North Carolina, but the race is simply too close to call in Indiana, the latest Zogby two-day telephone tracking poll shows. >>
Zogby International

Clinton campaign retools delegate math
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign yesterday tried to redefine the delegate math for securing the Democratic presidential nomination, signaling its willingness to wage a divisive battle with front-runner Sen. Barack Obama through the summer. >>
The Washington Times

Paul Campaign Never Ended
As the Democratic presidential candidates held pre-primary rallies yesterday in Indiana and North Carolina, and presumptive Republican nominee John McCain spoke to the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, another major-party presidential candidate continued his own quest for nomination, headlining a "Freedom Rally" on a Fort Wayne, Ind., university campus. >>
The Washington Post

-RSKnopfJr

Groundhog Day

Rise and shine campers...

Haven't we been here before, or does this political season just seem like the longest in history? It probably does, considering that candidates started running sooner, and the primaries started earlier than ever. You know the (not so) funny part? It still won't be over after today. Obama winning Indiana and/or North Carolina will not cause Clinton to end her campaign, and a win (or wins) by Clinton only strengthens her resolve and commitment to play this out until the convention.

Here's how the delegate count stands as we begin the day

The latest polls show both Clinton and Obama headed to victory today...

Indiana

North Carolina

numbers courtesy of Real Clear Politics

Candidates make pitch to party insiders
In back-to-back speeches before state Democratic activists in Indianapolis on Sunday night, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama each offered themselves as the candidate who can best deliver change to voters' paychecks, at gas pumps and to the power-brokers in Washington. >>
Indianapolis Star

Race for your vote
Candidates up and down the ballot started revving up their voter-turnout efforts Sunday, setting the stage for a bigger-than-ever N.C. primary finish. >>
The Charlotte Observer

Spin set, let the voting begin
In the run-up to Tuesday’s latest crucial set of primaries, Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton have both called themselves the “underdog.” But as they barrel into the biggest states left to vote, North Carolina and Indiana, polling and conventional wisdom have set clear expectations that belie that label.  >>
Politico

Check out the 'Democratic Delegate Calculator' from the New York Times so you can play along at home and see how far ahead Obama actually is. For example, if Clinton won 60% of the delegates in the remaining states (and that is NOT going to happen), Obama only needs to get 42% of the remaining superdelegates for the nomination (and considering he currently has the support of 48%, and has been exceeding even that number over the past two months), it shows how strong he is.

I'll check in later today, and be sure to check back tonight to find out who won, who lost, and how the spin is progressing.

-RSKnopfJr

Junior Tuesday Results

A huge win for Michael Heldman tonight - anytime you get over 75% of the vote, especially against a well known opponent, you are doing something right. This might give Heldman some clout (or at least garner some public support) when it comes time to talk budget with the commissioners, discussing a jail expansion or the possibility of another temporary justice center tax.

Stephen Oman has now lost three commissioners races in a row, but you have to wonder what would have happened if Bradley Griffin wasn't running. Was there some sort of anti-Walton sentiment that was muted by Griffin's presence? Considering Walton did not receive a majority of the votes, it was not exactly a ringing endorsement of someone who has the credentials but may not be communicating effectively with the electorate.

Besides the Hancock Park levy passing so handily, there were not many other surprises, although the number of votes for Democratic Presidential delegates did pique my interest. I wonder if this was due to the mobilization of Democratic voters, or the call to arms by political commentators like Rush Limbaugh urging GOPers to vote for Clinton. I hope it was the former, because the other goes against the principles I value.

On the national level, two things to bring out of what happened tonight:

1. McCain is now the Republican nominee and will do everything he can to start raising money and set the political agenda while the Democrats settle on a nominee over the next three months (or longer)
2. The race to become the Democratic nominee, despite Clinton winning three of four states tonight, barely changed from where we began the day...Obama is still in the lead, and when all the votes are counted, he may even come out earning more delegates for today's trouble. Nice system they implemented, huh?

It was great to finally see Ohio play a small part in Presidential primary politics; let's just hope we come up with some system for 2012 that is fair to every state and eliminates all the bickering and issues we have seen this cycle. Anyway, it is quickly approaching 1:30a. If Chris Matthews and Keith Olberman have had enough and are turning the anchor desk over to Norah O'Donnell, it must be time to go to bed.

Registered Voters 51695 - Cards Cast 21109 40.83%   
Num. Report Precinct 63 - Num. Reporting 63 100.00%

DEM DEL AND ALT NATL CONV
HILLARY CLINTON - 55.53%
JOHN EDWARDS - 1.43%
BARACK OBAMA - 43.04%

DEM STATE COMM MAN
CHARLES R. GRAY - 48.78%
DONALD L. TRAXLER - 51.22%

REP DEL AND ALT LARGE NATL CONV
MIKE HUCKABEE - 31.72%
JOHN MCCAIN - 55.29%
RON PAUL - 7.65%
MITT ROMNEY - 3.58%
FRED THOMPSON - 1.77%

REP COUNTY COMMISSIONER 1-2-09
EDWARD D. INGOLD - 54.24%
ROBERT J. KUHLMAN - 45.76%

REP COUNTY COMMISSIONER 1-3-09
BRADLEY L. GRIFFIN - 14.48%
STEPHEN F. OMAN - 37.27%
EMILY A. WALTON - 48.24%

REP SHERIFF
MICHAEL E. HELDMAN - 78.25%
THOMAS L. RENNINGER - 21.75%

REP COUNTY TREASURER
CARL MOSES - 7.98%
LARRY SETTLEMIRE - 17.44%
J. STEVE WELTON - 74.58%

REP CORONER
MARK R. FOX - 58.68%
JOHN P. ZIEGLER - 41.32%

ARCADIA TAX LEVY
FOR THE TAX LEVY - 52.45%
AGAINST THE TAX LEVY - 47.55%

MCCOMB BOND ISSUE
FOR THE BOND ISSUE - 47.92%
AGAINST BOND ISSUE - 52.08%

NORTH BALTIMORE TAX LEVY
FOR THE TAX LEVY - 100.00%
AGAINST THE TAX LEVY - 0.00%

VAN BUREN TAX LEVY
FOR THE TAX LEVY - 53.75%
AGAINST THE TAX LEVY - 46.25%

HANCOCK PARK DISTRICT TAX LEVY
FOR THE TAX LEVY - 65.81%
AGAINST THE TAX LEVY - 34.19%

 

Results from the Texas Democratic Caucus have not yet been announced.

updated 1:30a  03-05-08

-RSKnopfJr

Crunching the Numbers

I hope you're ready for some television commercials from the Presidential candidates (especially Democrat), because Ohio and our March 4 primary are definitely on everyone's calendar. I did some quick math last night, and it appears that both parties nominees could be locked up on Decision Tuesday (that's the name I am giving to the March 4 primaries...if you have a better suggestion, leave a comment).

McCain has 720 delegates out of the 1191 he needs for the nomination. Even if he runs the table for the rest of February, he will still only be at 1005. With only two of the upcoming contests being winner take all (w), RHP (RomneyHuckabeePaul) have an opportunity to sneak a few delegates into their column.

On Decision Tuesday, McCain could secure the nomination because of the four states that day

• Ohio - 88 delegates
• Rhode Island - 20 delegates
• Texas - 140 delegates
• Vermont - 17 delegates (w)

On the Democratic side, things are the same...yet different. Clinton has 1056 delegates out of the 2025 she needs for the nomination. Even is she runs the table for the rest of February, she will still only be at 1643. We know that there is no possibility of her getting every delegate in the contests between now and March, but agree to suspend reality for a moment.

On Decision Tuesday, Clinton could secure the nomination because of the four states that day

• Ohio - 161 delegates
• Rhode Island - 32 delegates
• Texas - 228 delegates
• Vermont - 23 delegates

Looking ahead, let's be more realistic and say that Clinton and Obama split delegates for the time being. After the 4th, there are two small contests remaining in March (Wyoming, Mississippi), and then the only one in April is Pennsylvania with 188 delegates. IF things are not settled by then, there are five contests in May and two in June...and then..and then...to the convention in Denver (admit it, you would love to see it come to that).

No matter whether clinching on the 4th is practical (McCain), or if there is a fierce contest for delegates (Clinton/Obama), Ohio is going to receiver a fair amount of attention over the next three weeks. Don't say I didn't warn you.

- - - - -

Some of the biggest news after Tuesday came from, once again, the Democrats...

Hillary Clinton will go for broke
Hillary Rodham Clinton personally lent her cash-strapped campaign $5 million late last month, and some top staffers are now going without pay, officials acknowledged yesterday. >>>
New York Post

Obama on pace to raise $30 mil in Feb
Barack Obama’s campaign is on track to raise another $30 million in February, sources close to the Illinois senator say, while Hillary Rodham Clinton’s spokesman revealed Wednesday that she had loaned her campaign $5 million. >>>
Politico

Democratic dead-heat 'not good news' says Dean
Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean on Wednesday voiced concern over the prospect of a brokered convention at the end of the party's White House nominating contests. >>>
Breitbart

Dem caucuses in Michigan, Florida suggested
The increasing possibility of a divisive battle over whether to seat Michigan's delegation to the Democratic National Convention has party officials looking for a compromise. >>>
The Detroit News

- - - - -

I hope that you're staying dry. Keep smilin'!  :-)

-RSKnopfJr

Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Tuesday Results

updated 02/06/08 2:00a

What a night! In such an unpredictable political season, what we saw this evening (and early this morning) was just as exciting as the college football season we just experienced.

There will be more time later today to discuss the results, and a look at how the delegate race shakes out. New Mexico (D) and Alaska (R) have still not been called, but it is late and I need to get some sleep. With everything going on today, and the historical ramifications of what happened, here's a little something to think about as you lay your head down on your pillow tonight...

Both Clinton and Obama can claim momentum out of tonight. Obama won more states, but Clinton won the big states of California and New York. A quick look at the delegates shows that things are almost even, and the fight now continues on to the next round of states this weekend.

For the GOP, despite not running away and winning convincingly, McCain won enough to start distancing himself from Romney and Huckabee in the delegate count. With so many winner-take-all contests, McCain won the right ones (i.e., New York, New Jersey, Missouri) and is now building a commanding lead.

Huckabee is developing into a serious contender for the Republican VP slot. With doing so well in the 'Bible Belt' states, Huckabee is presenting himself as the strong conservative ally that McCain is probably going to need to shore up the Republican base that he will need in November if he is the nominee.

Does Romney continue on? Winning six states tonight, I think he will...but he really needed to do well in California, and not winning there really hurt his chances to stop the 'Straight Talk Express'. We will discuss this more over the next few days, but for now, it is time to get some sleep and dream of how cool it would be if both races came down to the convention.

Until tomorrow...er, I mean later today...

-RSKnopfJr

Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Tuesday

24 states...1 day!

No, today is not the next version of 'The Amazing Race', it is the political version of 'Survivor'. LOL!

Clinton and McCain look to take commanding leads in delegates, but Obama and Romney/Huckabee are not going to go away that easily. Obama has come so close to Clinton in the national polls, they are virtually tied. And despite the win in Florida and endorsements from Giuliani and Schwarzenegger, he has not wrapped up the Republican nomination...yet.

So, what do we look for today? Honestly, no one knows. This is the largest one-day primary in our electoral history, so all bets are off when it comes to predicting. It wouldn't matter anyway, because no one has been able to accurately measure what the voters are thinking.

Today, however, will be a good test to see how candidates are able to organize a national campaign. With so many states in play, we not only see how far numerous resources can get someone (cough, Obama, cough), but if the Clinton machine is in full gear, and if McCain's endorsements and publicity from free media will translate into votes.

- - - - -

To find out who is currently ahead in the polls, not that they mean anything as of this morning, check out Real Clear Politics here or USA Today here for very comprehensive lists.

Since it is too much to cover in this blog, let me point out that The New York Times has an outstanding preview of all the states, what is at stake, and how the delegates are to be distributed.

Republicans and Democrats.

_ _ _ _ _

Here is a list of when the polls close for the states (all times ET):

9a
West Virginia convention (R)

7p
Georgia primaries

8p
Alabama primaries
Connecticut primaries
Delaware primaries
Illinois primaries
Massachusetts primaries
Missouri primaries
New Jersey primaries
Oklahoma primaries
Tennessee primaries

8:30p
Arkansas primaries

9p
Kansas caucuses (D)
Arizona primaries
Colorado caucuses
Minnesota primaries
New Mexico primary (D)
New York primaries

10p
Idaho caucuses (D)
Montana caucuses (R)
North Dakota caucuses
Utah primaries

11p
California primaries

1:30a
Alaska primaries

- - - - -

There are plenty of options when watching for the results tonight...first, check out Flag City Politico, but I suppose you could look at one of these as well (courtesy of MediaBistro):

ABC
five hours of coverage beginning at 8pm

CBS
two-hour special at 9pm

NBC
special report at 10p, plus one-hour Nightly News

PBS
three hours of coverage at 9p

CNN
40 hours of non-stop political programming begins at 6a

FOX
24-hours straight of live coverage, starting at 5a

MSNBC
from 6a until 2a Wednesday morning

Not sure what to watch for? The Wall Street Journal has you covered here.

- - - - -

I hope the title of this post didn't bother you. As long as everyone is coming up with superlatives for today's national primary, I thought I would throw in my choice. I hope you like it.

It's times like tonight that I wish I had a wall of TVs. If I am still married tomorrow morning, you will know how much my wife truly loves me.  ;-)

-RSKnopfJr

Maine Caucus Results (R)

While the rest of us were enjoying Super Bowl weekend, and wondering how Manning completed that pass to Tyree (according to my wife, Manning's good looks had something to do with it), Republicans across Maine were caucusing to determine who they wanted for their nominee.

And the winner is...

REPUBLICANS

MITT ROMNEY - 2,362 votes     52%     18 delegates
JOHN McCAIN - 958 votes     21%
RON PAUL - 851 votes     19%
MIKE HUCKABEE - 268 votes     6%
Undecided - 94 votes     2%
FRED THOMPSON - 4 votes     0%
Total Write-ins - 3 votes     0%
RUDY GIULIANI -  2 votes     0%
ALAN KEYES - 1 votes     0%

68% of precincts reporting

This is the fourth state Romney has won, compared to the three for McCain (and Huckabee with one). In the race for delegates, Romney closed the gap, and now trails McCain 97-92.

Tomorrow, of course, is Super Tuesday and the closest thing to a national primary our country has ever seen. Check back tomorrow for the latest news about what is happening around the country and to see if any of the candidates can pull away from the pack.

-RSKnopfJr

Florida Primary Results

And the winners are...
   
REPUBLICANS

JOHN McCAIN - 36%
MITT ROMNEY - 31%
RUDY GIULIANI - 15%
MIKE HUCKABEE - 14%
RON PAUL - 3%
   
   
DEMOCRATS

HILLARY CLINTON - 50%
BARACK OBAMA - 33%
JOHN EDWARDS - 14%
   
76% of precincts reporting - updated 01/29/08 10:00p

A report by Mark Halperin of Time Magazine says that Giuliani is going to endorse McCain as early as Wednesday. >>

Confirmed by NBC and ABC News.

- - - - -

McCain clearly has the big mo going leading up to next week's Super Tuesday. It will be his momentum versus the pocketbook of Romney. If, as expected, Giuliani leaves the race, this helps McCain in more than one way.

McCain expects to get Giuliani's endorsement, but better yet, his main competition for the moderate, independent vote be exiting. With Huckabee declaring he is moving on, he is in competition with Mitt Romney for the conservative Republican voting block. So...take away McCain's main nemesis, but leave Romney's in place, and what does that spell? How about McCain/Huckabee 08?

On the Democratic side, this wasn't a contest. In fact, MSNBC kept reading a disclaimer through the evening that reminded people that Clinton did not actually win anything - just a victory of public perception...but as I enjoy saying to anyone who will listen, 'perception equals reality'.

Tomorrow night, there is a Republican debate at the Reagan Library in California hosted by CNN, the LA Times and Politico.com. The next night, the Democrats take the stage in LA. As for tomorrow, the line-up may be down to four...and I'll be watching to see if McCain and Huckabee do what they can to take out Romney (remember, McCain/Huckabee 08). I am wondering if the Dems will do the same, with Obama and Edwards doing their best to knock Clinton around (Obama/Edwards 08?).

What a fun race that would be!
 

-RSKnopfJr

Florida Primary Preview

Well, today is the Florida primary, and we will find out a few things this evening

• Is Mitt Romney or John McCain the leader in the Republican race?
• Will Rudy Giuliani have the resources (or will) to continue on to next week's Super Tuesday contest?
• Who benefits from Fred Thompson dropping out last week?
• Even though the Democratic side is nothing more than a beauty contest (similar to Michigan, the Dem candidates vowed not to campaign in states that moved their primary dates earlier than the DNC allowed), does a win tonight by Clinton mean anything?

The biggest question coming about today today's race has to be Rudy Giuliani and his gamble about putting all of his eggs into the Florida basket. He was going against conventional wisdom by skipping the early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina), and putting his emphasis on Florida (California & New York next Tuesday). So, is this paying off? According to the polls...uh, no.

Insider Advantage     01/28
McCain - 31%   Romney - 30%   Huckabee - 15%   Giuliani - 13%

SurveyUSA     01/27-28
McCain - 32%   Romney - 31%   Giuliani - 15%   Huckabee - 13%

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby     01/27-28
McCain - 35%   Romney - 31%   Huckabee - 13%   Giuliani - 13%

Mitchell Research     01/27-28
Romney - 34%   McCain - 32%   Giuliani - 13%   Huckabee - 10%

Rasmussen     01/27
McCain - 31%   Romney - 31%   Giuliani - 16%   Huckabee - 11%

As you can see, things are not looking good for Rudy. A loss today probably knocks him out of the race, because recent polls in California, New York and New Jersey show him behind McCain (and if Giuliani cannot win New York and New Jersey, then he is not going to be the nominee).

Giuliani fights for survival as Florida votes
Florida voters cast their ballots on Tuesday in a contest that could anoint a front-runner among Republicans in the White House race and spell trouble for onetime favorite former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. >>
Reuters.com

With his limited financial resources, Huckabee had no chance of winning Florida either. A third-place finish, however, leaves him in the mix heading into next Tuesday...and don't forget, he still has the second most amount of delegates.

Romney vs McCain - the battle continues. Things have been churning this week, sometimes getting downright testy.

Candidates trade charges as Floridians flock to polls
The shouting from candidates was nearly -- but not quite over -- Tuesday as Floridians availed themselves of the most fundamental right and rite of democracy. >>
MiamiHerald.com

GOP hopefuls make final zip across Florida
Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney traded political punches as they crisscrossed Florida on Sunday hoping to break their deadlock in the state's winner-take-all presidential primary. >>
OrlandoSentinel.com

On the Democratic side, Florida really doesn't count in the overall standings. Right now, there are no delegates at stake, so there is nothing to win other than the perception battle. With Clinton's lead hovering around 20%, expect her to win this evening; although, it will be interesting to see if Obama's win in South Carolina can sway those numbers at all. If his supporters can cut Clinton's win down to 10% or below, watch how this gets spun into a victory for him, especially since he did not campaign in the state (unlike Clinton - she said she wouldn't, and technically she is ok, but she is now enjoying some time in the sunshine).

Clinton schedules appearance after polls close, avoids violating boycott
Polls opened across Florida this morning for a key presidential primary, with heavy turnout expected. >>
Tallahassee.com

When all the votes are counted, expect a 15% win for Clinton over Obama. On the Republican side, this is a tough one to call. It appears that momentum is on his side, and his message is resonating better with the voters. It won't be an upset if Romney wins, but give the edge to McCain at 35% to 31%. Giuliani will finish at 17% (and may exit the race tonight), Huckabee will have 13% (and move on to Super Tuesday) and Paul will wind up with 3% (and win every Internet poll). Tune in this evening for numbers and the winner.

-RSKnopfJr

South Carolina Primary Results (R)

And the winner is...

REPUBLICANS

JOHN McCAIN - 33%

MIKE HUCKABEE - 30%

FRED THOMPSON - 16%

MITT ROMNEY - 15%

RON PAUL - 4%

RUDY GIULIANI - 2%

DUNCAN HUNTER - 0%

93% of precincts reporting - updated 01/19/08 11:45p

 

This is pretty much expected, and I think everyone can see now that Thompson and Huckabee just are not going to be able to do it this time around. As much as I hate to admit it, the Republican field is down to three, and Florida is going to be a big test to see if Giuliani can gain any traction.

Huckabee seemed to be hurt by support for Thompson, and that is probably fine with Fred; if he can't win, he is happy that his good friend McCain got the victory. In a speech to supporters this evening, it seemed like Thompson was getting ready to announce that he was withdrawing, but it seemed like he couldn't bring himself to utter the sentence.

Huckabee still remains a VP candidate, and you have to imagine that McCain and Romney would not look to each other to accept the slot if one of them became the nominee. So...next stop is Florida, and we get to see how well Giuliani's strategic team planned this. Early look at the numbers for the Florida primary in 10 days (according to the latest poll from Insider Advantage):

• Giuliani - 21%
• McCain - 20%
• Romney - 20%
• Huckabee - 13%
• Thompson - 7%
• Paul - 6%

Received an e-mail tonight from Duncan Hunter's campaign...he is dropping out of the Republican race for President:

"We started this campaign a year ago right here, in San Diego Harbor, against the backdrop of American Naval power.   We launched a campaign emphasizing a strong national defense, enforceable borders and restoring  the industrial base of America.  Today we end this campaign.  The Nevada caucuses reflecting only 2% of the vote for me.   I ran the campaign exactly the way I wanted to, and at this point not being able to gain traction in conservative states of Nevada and South Carolina, it's time to allow our volunteers and supporters to focus on the campaigns that remain viable."

-RSKnopfJr

Nevada Caucus Results

And the winners are...

REPUBLICANS

MITT ROMNEY - 51%

RON PAUL - 14%

JOHN McCAIN - 13%

MIKE HUCKABEE - 8%

FRED THOMPSON - 8%

RUDY GIULIANI - 4%

DUNCAN HUNTER - 2%

TOM TANCREDO - 0%

    

DEMOCRATS

HILLARY CLINTON - 51%

BARACK OBAMA - 45%

JOHN EDWARDS - 4%

uncommitted - 0%

DENNIS KUCINICH - 0%

BILL RICHARDSON - 0%

98% of precincts reporting - updated 01/19/08 8:55p

 

No great surprise in the results - and when it came to delegates awarded, Clinton and Obama basically tied. Clinton did well with women again, while the unions came out to do well for Obama. Next week is South Carolina, and we'll see if Obama can win the state he needs to.

Romney put some effort into this state, and was awarded for the money he invested. Also, the Mormon turnout helped him, but he would have won the caucus anyway. We know that he is not going to win South Carolina, so the headline for the day at least has him as a winner...not too bad when Florida is on the horizon, and Giuliani appears to be fading fast. Another 'gold' medal for Mitt, and he is positioning himself well to be one of the final contestants for the Republican nomination.

-RSKnopfJr

Previewing Saturday

I suppose it is a little too late to post my thoughts on the Republicans in Nevada, because the Associated Press just announced that Romney will win the state.

It makes sense, since he was polling in double-digits over McCain and Huckabee, and decided to spend his time (and money) in Nevada instead of South Carolina (where he was going to be hard pressed to surpass Huckabee, McCain and Thompson).

On the Democratic side in Nevada, it comes down to Clinton and Obama (again). Despite the brief respite of anger during the most recent debate, things heated up again this week between the two sides...with former President Clinton once again getting into the mix - alleging voter suppression.

Despite his endorsement from the culinary workers in Las Vegas, Obama's advancements will probably not overtake the infrastructure that Clinton has built over the last two years. Clinton should win by 7-9%, and will have some momentum going into next week's South Carolina primary.

Speaking of SC, the Republicans have their primary today. McCain is seeking to reverse past fortunes and pull out a victory in the state, while Huckabee is looking for a surge in support from Christians, and Thompson is hoping his southern roots will help get voters.

Despite all of the campaigning that has been done, the defining factor may be the weather. A snow storm was predicted for the northern part of the state, and this could affect turnout of Huckabee supporters. The southern and eastern parts of the state were only calling for rain, and this would seem to benefit McCain and the cluster of people backing him.

When all is said and done, look for McCain to get past Huckabee by 5-7%. He has been involved in this process over the past several years, and has roots (and a lot of support) in the state. Despite his (supposed) proximity to the state, Thompson has just not gathered the depth of support and fervor that is needed for a victory.

Results as they come in.

-RSKnopfJr

Michigan Primary Results

Fun night- a primary and a debate.

And the winner is...

REPUBLICANS

MITT ROMNEY - 39%

JOHN McCAIN - 30%

MIKE HUCKABEE - 16%

RON PAUL - 6%

FRED THOMPSON - 4%

RUDY GIULIANI - 3%

uncommitted - 2%

DUNCAN HUNTER - 0%

DEMOCRATS

HILLARY CLINTON - 57%

uncommitted - 38%

DENNIS KUCINICH - 4%

CHRISTOPHER DODD - 1%

MIKE GRAVEL - 0%

81% of precincts reporting - updated 01/15/08 11:00p

Well, I don't think there were any surprises tonight. Romney stays alive with the win, and now we have three different winners in the three Republican elections. Next up for the GOP, South Carolina and Nevada.

What is more interesting on the Democratic side, uncommitted getting 38% of the vote, or Christoper Dodd (out of the race) getting more votes that Mike Gravel (still in the race)...with not much else going on, you look for anything to talk about.

I have been watching the Democratic debate on MSNBC tonight. Pretty civil, especially after the last few days of heated accusations about race. Everyone is playing nice again...until tomorrow.  ;-)

I'm going to bed.

-RSKnopfJr

Previewing the Michigan Primary

Looking ahead to tomorrow's Michigan Primary...

In this year of unusual political dynamics, a few more will be in play tomorrow. You all remember how states were jockeying to move their primary election days earlier and earlier? Of course you do - it was in all the papers. Well, Michigan was going to be sanctioned by the political parties for doing this (really, it was just a threat of losing delegates (representation) at the national conventions).

Well, on the Democratic side, this meant that some of the candidates were not going to upset the party and asked to have their names removed from the ballot. On the ballot tomorrow, you will not see Obama or Edwards (or Biden & Richardson). Instead, the ballot will read

• Hillary Clinton
• Christopher Dodd
• Mike Gravel
• Dennis Kucinich
• Uncommitted

In it's guide to voters, the Michigan Democratic Party urges supporters of those not appearing on the ballot to vote 'uncommitted' - and then the delegates selected can vote for whomever they want to at the national convention.

Here's the 'polling' that has been done

Detroit News  01/09-12
Clinton - 56%
Uncommitted - 33%

Detroit Free Press  01/09-11
Clinton - 56%
Uncommitted - 30%

American Research Group  01/09-11
Clinton - 57%
Uncommitted - 28%

Now, here is what makes things interesting...

In Michigan, when you arrive to vote, you are asked whether you want a Democratic or Republican ballot, and a record is made of which one you take. So, with no one to vote for, will Democrats try to influence the Republican race and vote for someone who may not be the strongest candidate? With independents in play as well, it will be interesting to see who gains from all of this.

Newspaper endorsements appear to be for Romney (Grand Rapids Press, Oakland Press) and McCain (Detroit News, Detroit Free Press). The polls confirm that this is a close, two-person race. If you look at one set of polls...

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby  01/11-13
McCain - 27%
Romney - 24%
Huckabee - 15%
Paul - 8%
Giuliani - 6%
Thompson - 5%

Detroit News  01/09-12
McCain - 27%
Romney - 26%
Huckabee - 19%
Giuliani - 6%
Thompson - 5%
Paul - 4%

American Research Group  01/09-11
McCain - 34%
Romney - 27%
Huckabee - 15%
Paul - 9%
Giuliani - 5%
Thompson - 4%

...or another set...

Mitchell Research  01/10-13
Romney - 29%
McCain - 27%
Huckabee - 12%
Paul - 7%
Giuliani - 7%
Thompson - 4%

Detroit Free Press  01/09-11
Romney - 27%
McCain - 22%
Huckabee - 16%
Paul - 5%
Giuliani - 4%
Thompson - 4%

Mason-Dixon  01/09-11
Romney - 30%
McCain - 22%
Huckabee - 17%
Thompson - 7%
Giuliani - 6%
Paul - 4%

...you see just how even/split Republican voters are.

Romney desperately needs a gold to go with the two silvers from Iowa an New Hampshire (sorry, but Wyoming does not count for purposes of this discussion). Huckabee can last until South Carolina, so he will survive another third-place finish. McCain is just looking to maintain the status quo, and even a second-place finish will be OK since this is considered 'Romney-territory'.

You've got to think that all the momentum is moving McCain's way, and with independents not having anyone to vote for on a Democratic ballot (and factoring in he won this state back in 2000), he is in better shape than Romney. Despite the connections and history with the state, Romney appears to be on his last legs and will not probably survive a loss; there was a reason he pulled commercial money from other states to put it into Michigan.

Final order - McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Paul, Giuliani, Thompson. While waiting for the final returns to come in tomorrow night (polls close at 8), tune in to a Democratic debate from Las Vegas, 9p on MSNBC: The Place for Politics.

-RSKnopfJr

This & That

A busy day so far...

An Upbeat Richardson Bows Out
"It was an upbeat Gov. Bill Richardson who ended his quest for the presidency in a 14-minute speech, often interrupted by applause and chants of "We Want Bill" from a crowd that packed the State Capitol Rotunda shortly after 1 p.m." >>
Albuquerque Journal

Interesting that he did not endorse anyone. Does this leave the door open for him to be the VP choice of the eventual Democratic nominee?

Meanwhile, in South Carolina...

On Edwards' Turf, Kerry Backs Obama
"Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, endorsed Sen. Barack Obama for the White House Thursday in a timely slap at Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as well as his own vice presidential running mate." >>
WYFF NBC 4

...and tonight, an important debate in Myrtle Beach. McCain needs to sustain the momentum, Thompson needs a win or he is out, and Huckabee needs to show he was not a one-hit wonder...

GOP takes the podium
"So different, so fast. The network official expressed surprise as she looked at the glowing American flag backdrop and the six candidates' podiums in the debate hall Wednesday afternoon." >>
Myrtle Beach Online

...also, it appears that McCain got a huge bump from his win in New Hampshire, because new polls show him ahead in South Carolina...

Fox News

• McCain - 25%
• Huckabee - 18%
• Romney - 17%
• Thompson - 9%
• Giuliani - 5%
• Paul - 5%

Rasmussen

• McCain - 27%
• Huckabee - 24%
• Romney - 16%
• Thompson - 12%
• Giuliani - 6%
• Paul - 5%

...while on the Democratic side, Obama does not seem to be hurt too much by his second place finish in New Hampshire. The latest poll in South Carolina still show him in the lead (but we have seen that before)...

Rasmussen

• Obama - 42%
• Clinton - 30%
• Edwards - 15%

Since I am not going to be home this evening, I will not be able to blog the debate. If you want to watch, however, it will be on FOXnews.

Also, I am preparing questions to send to the individuals running for county commissioner, so if you have any suggestions, e-mail me or put them in the comments section.

-RSKnopfJr

New Hampshire Primary Results

Results are trickling in, and I will post final results when they arrive, but for now, all you need to know is...

REPUBLICANS

JOHN McCAIN - 37%

MITT ROMNEY - 32%

MIKE HUCKABEE - 11%

RUDY GIULIANI - 9%

RON PAUL - 8%

FRED THOMPSON - 1%

DUNCAN HUNTER - 0%

73% of precincts reporting

 

DEMOCRATS

HILLARY CLINTON - 39%

BARACK OBAMA - 36%

JOHN EDWARDS - 17%

BILL RICHARDSON - 5%

DENNIS KUCINICH - 2%

JOE BIDEN - 0%

MIKE GRAVEL - 0%

CHRIS DODD - 0%

75% of precincts reporting

updated 01.08.08 10:50p

    

I'm going to bed, amazed as everyone that the pollsters got it so wrong. We'll see what the explanations are. More tomorrow.

-RSKnopfJr

Previewing the New Hampshire Primary

So what's going on in New Hampshire today?

New Hampshire Turnout 'Absolutely Huge'
ABC News' Karen Travers Reports: New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlan told ABC News that turnout among primary voters today is "absolutely huge" -- and there are concerns about running out of ballots in towns like Portsmouth, Keene, Hudson and Pelham.

"Turnout is absolutely huge and towns are starting to get concerned that they may not have enough ballots," Scanlan said. "We are working on those issues. Everything else seems to be going smoothly." >>

Early Results
Just after midnight, two New Hampshire towns cast their ballots:
Dixville Notch

Democrats

• Obama - 7 votes
• Edwards - 2 votes
• Richardson - 1 vote

Republicans

• McCain - 4 votes
• Romney - 2 votes
• Giuliani - 1 vote

Hart's Location

Democrats

• Obama - 9 votes
• Clinton - 3 votes
• Edwards - 1 vote

Republicans

• McCain - 6 votes
• Huckabee - 5 votes
• Paul - 4 votes
• Romney - 1 vote

Polls for the state have to close by 8p ET.

There are people already looking ahead to the chaos they predict will surround Clinton if (when) she loses in New Hampshire...

Clinton allies may dump millions into anti-Obama group
"A panicked and cash-short Clinton campaign is seriously considering giving up on the Nevada caucuses and on the South Carolina primary in order to regroup and to save resources for the massive 19-state mega-primary on February 5." >>

Staff shakeup ahead?
"Obama and Clinton are now tied with 33 percent of the vote each nationally, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll. The finding is a stunning change from mid-December, when Clinton held an 18-point advantage over Obama." >>

Ready to give Barack the part
"From the beginning, Hollywood has loved Obama's story -- his "pitch" as they say -- but was wary of his real box office potential." >>

Predictions?
It is difficult to go against the momentum Obama has built, and the question has changed from IF he can win to HOW MUCH he will win by. Despite polls that have him ahead by double-digits, I am not sure that the final results will be that lopsided. Heavy turnout can go both ways, especially for a state so close to the Clinton base of New York. I think that results will be close to what happened in Iowa. Look for Obama by 8% over Clinton over Edwards over Richardson.

For the Republicans, I have to admit that after the hit he took during the Saturday night debate, Romney came back and won on Sunday. It might, however, be too late to change the outcome. The only hope for Romney is that the independents that have previously turned out for McCain, instead decide to vote for Obama. If that happens, Romney pulls off the minor upset. Since reports are that Democratic turnout is heavy, I will go with with my gut and pick Romney by 3% over McCain over Giuliani over Huckabee over Paul over Thompson over Hunter.

Check back tonight for more information and results as they happen.

-RSKnopfJr

More from New Hampshire, including new polls

Two new polls out of New Hampshire, and more good news for McCain and Obama...

USAToday/Gallup
New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Obama - 41%
Clinton - 28%
Edwards - 19%
Richardson - 6%

New Hampshire Republican