Flag City Politico

What...me worry?

One week from tonight is the Pennsylvania. There has already been quite a bit of stories about Clinton and Obama over the past few weeks as the media tries to find something to fill their columns and air time, so thank goodness the primary is right around the corner.

Just so we are all on the same page moving forward, here is how the two candidates stand coming in to this next contest:

 

The latest polling from Pennsylvania still shows Clinton maintaining her lead, staying between 5-9% in the latest polls. Obama wants to get past next week without receiving too much damage (or having Clinton narrow the lead much), before he heads into North Carolina and what still looks like the next win he can put into his column.

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Whether it was intentional or not, shouldn't the chairman of the Associated Press be the last person to make a mistake like this?

For Obama and McCain, the Bitter and the Sweet
So much for the liberal media. John McCain and Barack Obama both appeared before the nation's newspaper editors yesterday. The putative Republican presidential nominee was given a box of doughnuts and a standing ovation. The likely Democratic nominee was likened to a terrorist. >>
Dana Milbank
Washington Post

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In case you missed it, Stephen Colbert is in Pennsylvania this week.

Colbert reports at Penn
The Colbert Nation has become the Colbert Campus, as Stephen Colbert, the Emmy award-winning comedy host, has descended upon Penn's Zellerbach Theatre for the week. >>
Colin Kavanaugh
The Daily Pennsylvanian

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And finally, from the "Who called this one first?" department. One of the headlines straight from the pages of TheCourier.com today - RiverPlace? Developer, lawyers aren't talking. I'm glad everything about this was settled months ago. Instead of the city seal, the council chamber should hang up a poster of Alfred E. Neuman with the words 'What...me worry?"

-RSKnopfJr

Patterns?

Let's see if you find a pattern with the following...

Obama Raises More than $40 Million
The Obama campaign has issued a press release saying it raised more than $40 million in March. This amount is less than the $55 million it raised it February -- but it's still a significant haul. >>
MSNBC

Hillary Raises $20 Million in March
The AP is reporting -- and First Read has confirmed with a campaign source -- that Clinton raised $20 million in March, about half of Obama's haul for the month. Still, as the AP notes, it is Clinton's second-best monthly performance. >>
MSNBC

Obama close to Bush record
The "over $40 million" the Obama campaign says it raised in March would put the total contributions the Illinois senator has raised in his presidential campaign at approximately $234 million — enough to surpass both the $200 million mark as well as the $215 million that 2004 presidential nominee John Kerry raised for that presidential primary season (then the Democratic record). >>
CNN

Jane Fonda: 'Obama!'
Jane Fonda, the actress and ardent anti-Vietnam war advocate who visited North Vietnam during those hostilities, has endorsed Democrat Barack Obama for president. >>
Chicago Tribune

Carter Hints at Support for Obama
Former President Carter wouldn't quite say it, but he left little doubt this week about who he'd like to see in the White House next year. >>
Breitbart

Why the Democratic race could end in North Carolina
The end could be near. Or the endgame, at least, of a surprisingly drawn-out Democratic presidential contest. Four months and 42 states after the opening Iowa caucuses, the primary in North Carolina on May 6 now looms as a pivotal final showdown between Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. >>
USAToday

Speaking of North Carolina, here is a look at the latest polling that shows Obama slowly pulling away...

Not to worry Clinton-backers - here are the numbers from Pennsylvania that show Clinton maintaining her lead (once again, see if you can find the trend - here's a hint, in a March 16 poll, Clinton led 56-30)...

Some good news, however, for the Clinton campaign...

DNC stance surprises campaigns
The Democratic National Committee said Tuesday that Florida and Michigan members will be seated on the three standing committees — including the critical Credentials Committee—at the party’s 2008 national convention, a position that could affect the selection of the Democratic nominee. >>
Politico

Just when things are looking up, something always happens...

Clinton Denies Saying Obama 'Cannot Win'
ABC News Eloise Harper Reports: Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., denies she told Governor Bill Richardson, D-N.M., that her Democratic nomination rival, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., "cannot win" a general election against presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. >>
ABC News

At least one thing about this election is certain...

John Edwards says would not accept VP nomination
Former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards said on Thursday he would not accept the nomination for U.S. vice president as he did four years ago. >>
Reuters

-RSKnopfJr

Politicizing Death

You knew it was going to happen sooner or later; the political candidates exploiting the untimely death of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto for political gain, and the media coverage of the candidates doing so.

The Politico: Bhutto death makes McCain man of the moment
John McCain, older than dirt and with more scars than Frankenstein as he likes to say, suddenly wasn’t looking so bad. >>

Newsweek: From the Department of Silver Linings
"Bad for Bhutto. Good for me."

If there's one line that sums up how yesterday's assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto is "playing" in the U.S. presidential race, that's it. >>

CNN: Conversation shifts from condolences to campaign issue
After expressing condolences and outrage over events in Pakistan, presidential candidates turned their discussion toward whose foreign policy credentials were better. >>

USAToday: Bhutto assassination roils WH race
The assassination of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto pushed terrorism back to the forefront and highlighted the candidacies of presidential hopefuls with long records on national security. >>


You have to wonder if Rudy Giuliani (Mr. 9/11), John McCain (tested in war) and Hillary Clinton (look, another woman took on the world, I can as well) were secretly grateful for this issue playing out so close to the Iowa Caucuses. I am not suggesting that they are happy about the assassination - it's just that the timing of this plays into their perceived strengths while highlighting perceived weaknesses of the leaders (namely, foreign policy experience).

In the next week, as Pakistan works through this problem and tries to uncover what actually happened (and who was responsible), you can bet that this will be the new topic in Iowa (and New Hampshire); let's see if this single event starts a chain of events that leads to wins for Clinton and McCain, not only in Iowa, but beyond.

-RSKnopfJr

Hancock County Republican Fall Picnic

Tonight at the Koehler Center on the campus of The University of Findlay, I attended the 2007 Hancock County Republican Party Fall Picnic. Now, besides being a Republican and attending this annual Columbus Day tradition, this event holds another special memory for me.

Back in 1992 after I had recovered from cancer surgery and treatments, my family asked what I wanted to do for my birthday (which is on October 9th). Because of college, I hadn't been to this event for a few years, and I persuaded my family and fiance (now the FCP's wife) to forgo any presents and just join me at this BBQ. My mother got tickets for everyone, and they all joined me...my favorite hobby and my family together in the same room was very life affirming.

Anyway, tonight's event kicked off a little late, but soon got rolling as Judge Vern Preston got up and shared a few barbs about Democrats.

listen to Judge Vern Preston talk about Columbus Day or download the file

listen to Judge Vern Preston talk about famous books or download the file

After dinner, Congressman Jim Jordan got up and spoke to the crowd for a moment before introducing the main speaker...

listen to Congressman Jim Jordan address the audience or download the file

the Honorable Rob Portman.

listen to Rob Portman address the audience or download the file

For those who forget, Portman was a six-term Congressman from the Cincinnati area. He hit the national stage by serving on the House ways and Means committee, and later when he left to join GWB White House staff as a trade representative. He was later named budget director, but left the position this past June so he could spend more time with his wife and three children.

Portman might run for Governor or US Senate in a few years when Strickland or Brown come up for re-election...or maybe Voinovich will face a conservative challenge (unlikely, but possible considering some of the comments and votes he has made over the past few years). The crowd responded enthusiastically to his speech, and I believe he would make a great representative for the state.

I hope that the recordings and pictures are adequate. I am in the market for a nice unit to record audio at these events, so if you have any ideas, let me know.

-RSKnopfJr

The Man from Hope

Sure, Mitt Romney received the most votes at this week's Iowa Straw Poll, but that was expected. The biggest story to come out of Ames, however, was the surprise second-place finish of Mike Huckabee.

For those of you have regular FCPolitico readers, you know that I have (on more than one occasion) extolled the virtues of Huckabee, so it was a little satisfying to see him do so well. After the results were announced, you had the feeling that the press was going to pick up on this...and the reaction came fast and furious...

• Meet the Press - "T he Huckabee story is amazing for a couple of reasons. He didn't buy a single bus. ... The other thing is Huckabee actually had a negative ad run against him for this last week. The Club for Growth went after him. So here's somebody who didn't have any paid media up himself, had a negative ad criticizing him, and he finished second. It's a big deal. ... Huckabee may start inching up and saying, 'Hey, I belong in this first tier.'"
• Bloomberg - "He got more votes than he bought tickets, which is a rare thing in Iowa. You usually get what you pay for. Huckabee got more than that."
• Des Moines Register - "Governor Huckabee was arguably the biggest winner yesterday, because he did beat Sam Brownback, and the two of them were in a real contest for the hearts and minds of the social conservatives."

...and the candidate himself on Face the Nation...

"We're in fact in the first tier I think by everybody's estimation, and here's why. It wasn't just that we surprised people with a second showing. It's that we did it with so few resources. I mean, this really was feeding the 5,000 with two fish and five loaves. An amazing kind of day for us. Because if you look at how much money some of the candidate spent to get the votes they got, it's staggering. And we spent less than $100,000 on the straw poll.

If we add everything we did over the course of the last seven weeks in Iowa -- that includes paper clips and gasoline for the vehicles to get us from place to place -- our total expenses were $150,000. So when you look at what we were able to achieve, it was because people came to Ames to vote for us. And we had remarkable stories of people who came literally from all over America to work for us. And then people from Ames, one girl drove from Ames to Des Moines to get her driver's license because she forgot it, just so she could vote for me. I mean, it was a movement."

Still not convinced? Try these...

Easy style hits chord with Republicans
Strumming on his guitar, the presidential candidate from Hope, Arkansas knows informal southern manners go down well on the campaign trail. His easy way with people and self-deprecating humour helped to get him re-elected four times as governor of Arkansas.
Edward Luce
FT.com via MSNBC

Huckabee's Price of Admission: $100,000
Relishing his second-place finish in the Ames, Iowa straw poll on Saturday, Mike Huckabee yesterday noted that he managed to snare 18 percent of the vote despite investing much less in the event than his top rivals. "It wasn't just that we surprised people with a second showing, it's that we did it with so few resources," he said. "This really was feeding the 5,000 with two fish and five loaves."
Alec MacGillis
Washington Post

For a Joke-Telling Candidate, a Second-Place Finish
“I can’t buy you — I don’t have the money,” Mike Huckabee, the Arkansas Republican seeking the presidency, told Republicans at the Iowa Straw Poll this weekend. He offered a mock frown.
Adam Nagourney
New York Times

Analysis: Huckabee's 2nd-Place 'Win' in Ames
The biggest political event of the 2007 calendar year gave former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney a victory, but the biggest winner may well be former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who placed a surprising second.
Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post

Huckabee media whirl: Empathy for life 'at the bottom of the mountain'
Mike Huckabee has parlayed his surprise second-place finish in the Iowa Republican Party straw poll into at least eight national media appearances so far. One of his most interesting encounters was with Chris Mathews on MSNBC's Hardball.
Jill Lawrence
USA Today

Huckabee's Fifteen Minutes
After his second-place finish in the Iowa straw poll, Mike Huckabee emerged as the mainstream media's favorite conservative.
Maggie Gallagher
Yahoo!

So what's next? Does this move Huckabee to the top tier? Maybe not all the way, but he is definitely closer to replacing McCain than ever before. Huckabee has until he end of September to translate this success into an increase in fundraising.

Talk has also surfaced of Huckabee being a possible choice for VP. I think that the idea has merit, especially if Giuliani is the Republican nominee and needs a southerner (Arkansas) with executive experience (governor) and who is a pro-life (and can balance Rudy's position) conservative (to balance Rudy being a moderate). Stranger things have happened...and this election cycle, anything is possible.

-RSKnopfJr

photos courtesy of Mike Huckabee's campaign website

Iraq Accountability Act, Revised

She can try and spin it however she wants to, but Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)  just let a lot of Americans down. In the 2006 election, Iraq was the number one reason given by voters for overwhelmingly selecting Democrats to the House and Senate. Now, five months into the 110th Congress, she and her Democratic associates just blinked first in their showdown with President Bush.

Not that they have a lot of support to begin with; with all the attention given to the President’s approval numbers lately (latest Gallup poll - 33%), you may have missed the news that Congressional approval ratings are even lower (Gallup - 29%). Factor in that these were from May 10-13, and I am sure that both groups will be be even lower with this latest news.

Looking at the message boards on the Democratic Party website, Democrats Pass Revised Iraq Accountability Act, there are some unhappy Americans sitting out there:

“As far as the Democrats go, they have again shown that they have no back-bone with regard to dealing with this administration.”   
-Feedup

“I am very disappointed in the Democrats for caving into the Administration's antics. I really believed the Dems in Congress would do what the American people wanted done when we spoke in November.”   
-Dabb

“How pathetic! The Democrats Revised Accountability Act that does not hold Bush accountable...imagine that!”   
-Spotlight

Some free advice to both parties: just get this done and get the troops home as soon as possible. We support the people who defend us, but we went them back as soon as their mission is really accomplished. Stop playing politics with their lives…the emotions of their family & friends…and the passion of the electorate. We have long memories, and will remember this next year and beyond.

-RSKnopfJr