Flag City Politico

Should Hillary Clinton drop out of the race for the Democratic nomination?

conducted April 28 - May 6, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

What was the top story of the week?

poll conducted April 19-27, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

WIR 041808

Looking back, there was a lot going on this past week so it is hard to decide what was really important...although, we'll try. Vote in the poll to the right and let everyone know what you think what the top story of the week was.

DEMOCRATIC DEBATE & AFTERMATH
The Pennsylvania Primary is less than a week ago, so ABC did their best to help the PA voters get in-depth knowledge of how the candidates come across on the issues...NOT!  ABC News has been ripped apart left and right (or should I say, left and left? ha! ha!) for the questions they presented to Clinton and Obama.

Who Lost the Debate? Moderators, Many Say
Charles Gibson and George Stephanopoulos, the moderators of Wednesday night’s presidential debate on ABC, became the subject of a fierce and somewhat unexpected debate themselves on Thursday, as viewers, bloggers and television critics lamented what they described as an opportunity lost: a chance to ask the two candidates for the Democratic nomination substantive questions early and often. >>
Jacques Steinberg
The New York Times

Even though message boards have been mostly negative, give ABC News credit. Even they covered the aftermath of what happened and addressed it during a newscast (click here to go the the video).

POPE BENEDICT XVI VISITS USA
The Pope's first visit to the United States comes as our country is in the midst of selecting the next President. It is interesting to compare how President Bush has been treated during his tenure, a spiritual person who has often been criticized for the way he shows his faith, with this election cycle. It is the first time I can remember Presidential political forums that were about faith, spirituality and religion...only. I hope the next President feels that they do not have to hide who they are or what they believe.

Pope: America needs to be a land of hope for all
Pope Benedict XVI presided over a Mass celebrated in 10 languages Thursday, calling the United States a land of opportunity and hope but decrying that the nation's promise has been left unfulfilled for some. >>
Victor L. Simpson
My Way News

Not to be outdone, The Daily Show with Jon Stewart had their own unique take on the Pope's visit (NOTE: certain individuals may find some of the content in the video offensive. You have been warned. If you do not want to watch, click here for an alternative video. Seriously - don't blame me later.)

TIME MAGAZINE GOES GREEN
Question: What do the September 14, 2001 and April 28, 2008 issues of Time Magazine have in common?

Answer: They are the only two times that the magazine's cover border has not been red.

Significant? Perhaps. But that's not really the story that is making this a big news item.

Iwo Jima Veterans Blast Time's 'Special Environmental Issue' Cover
For only the second time in 85 years, Time magazine abandoned the traditional red border it uses on its cover. The occasion – to push more global warming alarmism. The cover of the April 21 issue of Time took the famous Iwo Jima photograph by Joe Rosenthal of the Marines raising the American flag and replaced the flag with a tree. The cover story by Bryan Walsh calls green “the new red, white and blue.” >>
Jeff Poor
Business & Media Institute

In a political year where even a Republican President is (somewhat) addressing environmental concerns, it is just disheartening to see an effort get lost in a storm of political correctness. Maybe Time did mess up, but I have to believe they did not do it with the thought of offending the soldiers.

---

Other nominees for story of the week:

• McCain's economic plan
• HuckPAC
• Lieberman to speak at Republican Convention?
• Colbert in Pennsylvania

Remember to vote in the poll in the right to select your story of the week, and share your comments with others.

Pennsylvania Primary: 4 days away
Election Day: 200 days away

-RSKnopfJr

How is Findlay City Council doing?

poll conducted April 3-14, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

How are the Hancock County Commissioners doing?

poll conducted March 26 - April 2, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

In November, what color will Ohio be?

poll conducted March 5-25, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

What was the biggest local story from 'Junior Tuesday'?

poll conducted March 5-10, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

How did Flag City Politico do with endorsements for the Hancock County races?

poll conducted March 3-4, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

If the election were held today, which candidate for commissioner would you vote for?

poll conducted February 25 - March 2, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

If the election were held today, which candidate for commissioner would you vote for?

poll conducted February 18-24, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

If the election were held today, which candidate for sheriff would you vote for?

poll conducted February 6-17, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

Who will be ahead in delegates after 'Super Tuesday'?

poll conducted January 30 - February 5, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

Who will win the 2008 Florida Republican Primary?

poll conducted January 27-29, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

Who will win the 2008 South Carolina Democratic Primary?

poll conducted January 20-26, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

Who will win the 2008 South Carolina Republican Primary?

poll conducted January 16-19, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

Who will win the 2008 Michigan Republican Primary?

poll conducted January 9-15, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

This & That

A busy day so far...

An Upbeat Richardson Bows Out
"It was an upbeat Gov. Bill Richardson who ended his quest for the presidency in a 14-minute speech, often interrupted by applause and chants of "We Want Bill" from a crowd that packed the State Capitol Rotunda shortly after 1 p.m." >>
Albuquerque Journal

Interesting that he did not endorse anyone. Does this leave the door open for him to be the VP choice of the eventual Democratic nominee?

Meanwhile, in South Carolina...

On Edwards' Turf, Kerry Backs Obama
"Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, endorsed Sen. Barack Obama for the White House Thursday in a timely slap at Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as well as his own vice presidential running mate." >>
WYFF NBC 4

...and tonight, an important debate in Myrtle Beach. McCain needs to sustain the momentum, Thompson needs a win or he is out, and Huckabee needs to show he was not a one-hit wonder...

GOP takes the podium
"So different, so fast. The network official expressed surprise as she looked at the glowing American flag backdrop and the six candidates' podiums in the debate hall Wednesday afternoon." >>
Myrtle Beach Online

...also, it appears that McCain got a huge bump from his win in New Hampshire, because new polls show him ahead in South Carolina...

Fox News

• McCain - 25%
• Huckabee - 18%
• Romney - 17%
• Thompson - 9%
• Giuliani - 5%
• Paul - 5%

Rasmussen

• McCain - 27%
• Huckabee - 24%
• Romney - 16%
• Thompson - 12%
• Giuliani - 6%
• Paul - 5%

...while on the Democratic side, Obama does not seem to be hurt too much by his second place finish in New Hampshire. The latest poll in South Carolina still show him in the lead (but we have seen that before)...

Rasmussen

• Obama - 42%
• Clinton - 30%
• Edwards - 15%

Since I am not going to be home this evening, I will not be able to blog the debate. If you want to watch, however, it will be on FOXnews.

Also, I am preparing questions to send to the individuals running for county commissioner, so if you have any suggestions, e-mail me or put them in the comments section.

-RSKnopfJr

An early look at South Carolina

With the results in New Hampshire, you know these numbers are going to change...but for now, here is an early look at South Carolina.

Republican Primary - January 19
SurveyUSA: 01/04-06
Huckabee - 36%
Romney - 19%
McCain - 17%
Thompson - 11%
Giuliani - 9%
Paul - 5%

Rasmussen: 01/06
Huckabee - 28%
McCain - 21%
Romney - 15%
Thompson - 11%
Giuliani - 10%
Paul - 4%

InsiderAdvantage: 01/07
Huckabee - 33%
McCain - 21%
Romney - 14%
Giuliani - 8%
Paul - 5%
Thompson - 5%

Democratic Primary - Jan 26
SurveyUSA: 01/04-06
Obama - 50%
Clinton - 30%
Edwards - 16%

Rasmussen: 01/06
Obama - 42%
Clinton - 30%
Edwards - 14%

InsiderAdvantgage: 01/07
Obama - 40%
Clinton - 33%
Edwards - 15%


More numbers from South Carolina, and Michigan, as they become available.

-RSKnopfJr

Who will win the 2008 New Hamphire Republican Primary?

poll conducted January 3-8, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

More from New Hampshire, including new polls

Two new polls out of New Hampshire, and more good news for McCain and Obama...

USAToday/Gallup
New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Obama - 41%
Clinton - 28%
Edwards - 19%
Richardson - 6%

New Hampshire Republican Primary
McCain - 34%
Romney - 30%
Huckabee - 13%
Giuliani - 8%
Paul - 8%
Thompson - 3%

-----

CNN/WMUR
New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Obama - 39%
Clinton - 29%
Edwards - 16%
Richardson - 7%

New Hampshire Republican Primary
McCain - 32%
Romney - 26%
Huckabee - 14%
Giuliani - 11%
Paul - 10%
Thompson - 1%

---

New York Daily News
Former Sen. Bill Bradley endorses Obama for president
"Bill Bradley, a former presidential hopeful and senator, on Sunday endorsed Democrat Barack Obama for president." >>

Concord Monitor
Clinton's with the kids on the bus
"It was an intimate conversation between Hillary Clinton, her daughter and four young undecided voters - save for the two reporters listening in." >>

SeacoastOnline
Edwards in Portsmouth: Fight 'with everything we've got'
"Douglas Marino of Newfields isn't old enough to vote, but that didn't stop him from standing in Market Square on a cold Saturday morning for his favorite presidential candidate." >>

WMUR
McCain Continues Strong Push In New Hampshire
"Republican Sen. John McCain is hoping to capitalize on his recent time in New Hampshire with a strong showing on primary day." >>

New Hampshire Union Leader
Romney casts himself as the outsider
"Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney told voters yesterday that he's the candidate who can change Washington, casting himself as an outsider and criticizing his chief opponent in Tuesday's primary, Sen. John McCain." >>

Boston Globe
Huckabee handles heckler
"Mike Huckabee today calmly handled an angry heckler, turning the confrontation to his advantage and winning applause from a packed crowd that turned out to hear him speak at a local school." >>


I'm off to watch the Republican Forum on Fox.

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers - New Hampshire

The post-Iowa polls are starting to roll in...

Rasmussen
New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Obama - 37%
Clinton - 27%
Edwards - 19%
Richardson - 8%

New Hampshire Republican Primary
McCain - 31%
Romney - 26%
Paul - 18%
Huckabee - 11%
Giuliani - 8%
Thompson - 5%

More to come as they are released.

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CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire
New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Obama - 33%
Clinton - 33%
Edwards - 20%
Richardson - 4%

New Hampshire Republican Primary
McCain - 33%
Romney - 27%
Giuliani - 14%
Huckabee - 11%
Paul - 9%
Thompson - 1%

-----

Concord Monitor
New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Obama - 34%
Clinton - 33%
Edwards - 23%
Richardson - 4%

New Hampshire Republican Primary
McCain - 35%
Romney - 29%
Huckabee - 13%
Giuliani - 8%
Paul - 7%
Thompson - 1%

-----

American Research Group
New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Obama - 38%
Clinton - 26%
Edwards - 20%
Richardson - 3%

New Hampshire Republican Primary
McCain - 39%
Romney - 25%
Huckabee - 14%
Giuliani - 7%
Paul - 6%
Thompson - 1%

-RSKnopfJr

Who will win the 2008 Iowa Republican Caucus?

poll conducted January 2-3, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers - Last Look at Iowa

The Iowa Caucus is today.

Here is a look at the latest polls from Iowa and how the candidates have been tracking...

Democrats

Republicans

Thanks to Real Clear Politics for compiling this information!

-RSKnopfJr

What do you want for Christmas?

poll conducted December 23, 2007 - January 1, 2008

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers - Iowa

Only 12 days until the Iowa Caucuses...

The candidates are taking a brief break for the Christmas holiday (or at least they planning on it), so this is a nice opportunity to see the latest numbers coming out of Iowa.

First, the Democrats -

Clinton - Obama...Obama - Clinton. It keeps going back and forth, just enough to allow Edwards (who is keeping it close) an opportunity to come right through the middle. Since this is a caucus, two things are important: 1) the organization to get caucusers where they need to be, and 2) who is the second choice of the voters.

Since caucus goers can be convinced by others to join their side, being second choice is a good indicator (advantage Edwards who leads in this category). As for getting the people out Edwards and Clinton (through her husband) have been through this before, so you need to give them an advantage.

To see how tight things have been, and for how long, take a look at this graph -

Now, the Republicans -

Has Huckabee peaked and is now coming back to the flock (no pun intended considering the religious undertones of his campaign)?  Certainly, being in the spotlight now, and the target of everyone looking to unseat the leader, Huckabee has been hit by his fellow GOPers and pundits.

However, Huckabee may be the next Teflon candidate, because little has been sticking. Perhaps it is his folksy demeanor, or maybe there is really nothing of importance. No matter what happens in Iowa, a Huckabee victory probably will not translate into success in New Hampshire...but may assist him in Michigan, South Carolina and beyond.

To see the meteoric rise of the former Arkansas governor, take a look at this graph.

Until next time, keep smilin'!  :-)

-RSKnopfJr

Thanks to Real Clear Politics for the graphs and latest poll numbers.

If you could select how the federal government had to spend extra tax revenue, what would it be?

poll conducted November 26 - December 22, 2007

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers - Republicans in Iowa

On the GOP side, the race is still wide open. Despite Huckabee's recent surge, Giuliani is still the national leader (although his margin is narrowing), Romney gave his 'religion' speech today, Paul is gearing up for another money bomb, McCain has been through this before, and Thompson...well, I'm still not sure what Thompson's strategy is.

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers - Democrats in Iowa

It all starts with Iowa. Expectations are sometimes more important than results; you can't really 'win' in Iowa, but there is plenty to lose.

Let's face it, the Democratic side is really down to three...so let's see how they have been doing. Here are their results from the last five major polls to come out of Iowa:

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers - Republicans

If you weren't watching the CNN/YouTube debate this evening, it was really interesting (and entertaining). The audience was really into it - reacting to every candidate response. I was at work when this started so I decided not to start live-blogging part of the way through, but if you get the opportunity to watch a replay or see the answers on YouTube, please do so.

As for the Republican numbers, here they are (check out the new leader in Iowa)...

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers - Democrats

-RSKnopfJr

What is your opinion about RiverPlace?

poll conducted November 18 - 25, 2007

-RSKnopfJr

What was the biggest surprise from the 2007 election?

poll conducted November 7 - 17, 2007

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers - Republicans

Let's see how the other half lives...

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers - Democrats

It's been over a month - let's see how everyone's doing...

The latest polls show things tightening up in Iowa. If HClinton was vulnerable anywhere, this would be the place. If she can win in Iowa, then she has a clear path to the nomination...if Obama or Edwards springs the upset (and maybe, just maybe, knocks her down to third), who knows what would happen.

Tomorrow, the Republicans...with some surprising news from Iowa (what a cliffhanger).  :-)

-RSKnopfJr

Which Findlay mayoral candidate has the better website?

poll conducted October 29 - November 6, 2007

-RSKnopfJr

If the election were held today, which mayoral candidate would you vote for?

poll conducted October 13-28, 2007

-RSKnopfJr

If the election were held today, which candidates for the Findlay Board of Education would you vote for?

poll conducted October 6-12, 2007

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers

Who is ahead in the early states...

I have been attempting different looks/methods to share this information with you. For this one, after putting down the first few states, I knew this was going to be lengthy (and awkward), but I was already committed. Trust me, I won't try this style again.

-RSKnopfJr

If the election were held today, which candidates for Findlay Council-At-Large would you vote for?

poll conducted September 22 - October 5, 2007

-RSKnopfJr

Who will be the next representative of the 5th Congressional District?

poll conducted September 22-28, 2007

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers

Who is ahead in the early states (percentage over their nearest competitor)...

Notice any trends emerging? HRC vs _______.

-RSKnopfJr

Have the county commissioners, mayor and city council communicated enough during the recent flooding and aftermath?

poll conducted September 15-21, 2007

-RSKnopfJr

If the election were held today, which mayoral candidate would you vote for?

poll conducted September 8-14, 2007

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers

Now that Fred Thompson has entered the race, we begin to see the significant bump that he has received in a few of the states. Also, with Michigan passing the law that moves their primary to January 15, early victories in the Midwest are going to benefit someone. Let's see how Romney's history in Michigan (because of his father) translates to success.

Anyway, here are the numbers from the early states...

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-RSKnopfJr

Do you think the City of Findlay should enact a residential building code?

poll conducted September 1-7, 2007

Which member of Findlay City Council best represents you?

poll conducted August 11-31, 2007

-RSKnopfJr

Latest Numbers

Michigan is going to move their primary to January 15, so they are suddenly a key player in the process. On the Republican side, imagine Romney winning Iowa (where he is ahead), New Hampshire (where he is ahead) and now Michigan (where his family has a successful history).

Anyway, here are the numbers from the early states...

-RSKnopfJr

Illinois Straw Poll - Results

Late announcement from the Illinois Republican Party...

“Congratulations to Mitt Romney, whose strong showing today indicates he has begun to put together a strong statewide organization. There’s no question that Illinois’ demographics closely match those of the United States and this could be an indication as to whom Illinois voters are leaning toward this coming February.”

Off his recent win in Iowa, Romney won the 'Land of Lincoln' straw poll, doubling up on runner-up Fred Thompson:

1. Mitt Romney – 40.35% 
2. Fred Thompson – 19.96%
3. Ron Paul – 18.87%
4. Rudy Giuliani – 11.61%
5. John McCain – 4.12%
6. Mike Huckabee – 3.04%
7. Sam Brownback – 1.08%
8. Duncan Hunter - .65%
9. Tom Tancrado - .33%

What's most surprising...

• Romney's win? Not really. With the proximity to Iowa, and coming off of Iowa, this can hardly be considered out of the ordinary.
• Fred Thompson doing better than Rudy Giuliani? Perhaps a little considering the spread between the two. Let's see what happens when the two are on the same stage.
• Ron Paul in third place?  Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner. This shows that Iowa was not a fluke, and his supporters are a force to be reckoned with (at least in the midwest).

Next up: Texas at the end of the month.

-RSKnopfJr

Ames Straw Poll - Results & Recap

After a 90+ minute delay in announcing the results (due to problems with the Diebold machines counting the ballots), the results are in for the Ames Straw Poll:

1. Mitt Romney - 4516 votes, 31.5%
2. Mike Huckabee - 2587, 18.1%
3. Sam Brownback - 2192, 15.3%
4. Tom Tancredo - 1,961, 13.7%
5. Ron Paul - 1305, 9.1%
6. Tommy Thompson - 1039, 7.3%
7. Fred Thompson - 203, 1.4%
8. Rudy Giuliani - 183, 1.3%
9. Duncan Hunter - 174, 1.2%
10. John McCain - 101, 1%
11. John Cox - 41, .1%
Total Votes: 14,302

As expected, Romney won...and even though his percentage was about the same as GWBush in 1999, the difference between first and second was greater than Bush's victory over Steve Forbes eight years ago. Since he did just as good as Bush did, Romney can probably sleep well tonight knowing that he met the expectations that were out there.

In a surprise to many (but not, ahem, the FCPolitico), Mike Huckabee finished second. Since the first Republican debate, I have been impressed with him. His message really must have resonated with the Iowa voters because he did not have the money to spend (like Romney), and did not make this a make-or-break event (like Tommy Thompson). We'll see if this translates into more resources headed Huckabee's way.

Brownback and Tancredo did better than I expected, but it is a testament to the importance (and money) they threw at today's event. They were second only to Romney in the number of supporters being transported to Ames, and the effort certainly paid off.

Ron Paul's fifth place finish, despite a minimal effort to participate in the event, and a court challenge in the way the way the vote was held (he looks good now considering the technical issues of the night) that should have hurt him more, show that he is not a fringe candidate. Even though he is not near the top-tier, his message (and dedicated supporters) should not be dismissed. Paul's following reminds me of Howard Dean from four years ago; if a top candidate can get Paul's endorsement, there is a major grass roots organization that will follow.

I am waiting for the announcements from Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter that they are suspending their campaigns. Thompson said many times that if he didn't finish near the top, he was done; and considering how hard his campaign worked to do well in this event, the sixth place finish will assure that we will now have only one Thompson remain in the race. John Cox? At least his family and friends voted for him.

We knew that McCain was going to have a poor showing, but he actually received more votes than he did in 1999. Also, there may be something to Fred Thompson doing better than Rudy Giuliani, but it may be because a group paid $10,000 to be at the event, pass out material on Thompson's behalf, and broadcast audio of his speeches over a speaker. All three candidates who weren't here know who the competition now is, and need to get in position to do better in the Iowa caucus in January.

Tomorrow, Romney (FOX), Huckabee (CBS) and Brownback (ABC) will be on the Sunday news/talk shows...so tune in to see how they spin the results.

So how did I do? Here's my prediction again for you to compare:

1. Mitt Romney - 36%
2. Mike Huckabee - 19%
3. Tommy Thompson - 11%
4. Rudy Giuliani - 8%
5. Fred Thompson - 7%
6. Tom Tancred - 6%
7. Sam Brownback - 5%
8. Ron Paul - 5%
9. Duncan Hunter - 2%
10. John McCain - 1%
11. John Cox - 0%

Hey...I got the top two, and bottom three, correct...not too bad. As for everything in between, I blame it on Diebold.  ;-)

-RSKnopfJr